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Syrian conflict.


LoooSeR

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#SAA led by Republican Guards took control of Faraj area (south of airbase) inn Deir ez Zor

 

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A SVBIED targeted an army point near Salma town of #NorthernLatakia

 

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Army operation ongoing toward al-Tarabia after army recontrol Btaysh village north hama

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Judging by current events, 2011's rebels would probably side with Assad today. The irony is beyond description.

 

The US State Department and other US government organs believed their own propaganda.  Remember this?

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The US government is filled with aging Baby Boomers who feel considerable nostalgia about the social uprisings that defined their generation.  They also feel guilt about not having participated in them more vigorously, and wish to vicariously participate in such uprisings elsewhere.  They became convinced that the entire Arab world was filled with hip, Western-educated young people who aspired to live in shiny, Western-style democracies instead of shabby, corrupt dictatorships.  With a little help from their friends in Washington DC, they could make their dreams a reality!  Yes we can!

 

Also, once the revolution was complete there were going to be some shady oil deals and whatnot to sweeten the deal for some of the people involved.  The first batch of diplomatic cable leaks have alluded to some of these.  But this isn't to say that the US government started all this chaos to get their hands on oil.  They're simply not that rational.  The horrifying thing about US foreign policy is that the US is so overwhelmingly powerful, and so completely insulated from the consequences of its actions, that the primary goal of US foreign policy is to posture and to gain advantage in US domestic politics.  If you live outside the US, you are just a puppet on a string, dancing to a solipsistic and insane tune played by the blind idiot god of America.  Unless you live in Russia or China and to a lesser extent India.  They have nukes and they're not afraid to tell the US government to shove it.  Everywhere else?

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So, the Democratic Party and their extended network of allies in the State Department and elsewhere decided to prove their purity and support for Democracy by assisting in the overthrow of secular dictatorships throughout the Middle East.  This was, in retrospect, and also a the time, obviously a bad idea.  While these countries did have large numbers of hip, westernized youth who were tired of the corruption and economic stagnation of their homelands, these countries had even larger numbers of Islamists who were older, better-funded, better-organized, and far better at playing the game.  The results were entirely predictable; the young, cool, hip protesters who basically wanted to turn the entire southern coast of the Mediterranean into LA were quickly displaced and cowed into silence by barbarians who want to dynamite the pyramids and conquer all of their neighbors so they can have them as rape-slaves.  Also, I want to point out that that last sentence sounds like a breezy, poetic exaggeration but it's actually literally true.

 

This happened pretty quickly; it was obvious that Islamist elements were wearing the pants only a few months into the Arab Spring movement.  But the US government does not let mere facts stop it.  Instead of quickly pulling support and walking away while pretending nothing happened at all, the US government decided that if Islamists had taken over pro-Democracy protests, Islamists must be the true face of Democracy in the Middle East.  Seriously; that's how come you get retarded buzzfeed articles like this one lamenting the suppression of the Muslim Brotherhood.

 

Very quickly, a number of governments that managed not to implode decided that if Uncle Sam was going to act all retarded and shit, they might as well do their best to make sure that it was directed at their enemies.  These countries, chiefly Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and Israel, formed a surprisingly effective alliance of strange bedfellows that aimed at exporting their domestic political problems and at sticking it to the Persians.  Saudi Arabia has a long history of religious radicalism, and an almost equally long history of exporting those radicals so they can get killed by airstrikes from civilized countries.  Qatar is a Salafist country that is looking very nervously at their own 20% Shia minority and what's going on in Yemen and Iraq.  Turkey is run by a knuckle-dragger who stays on top because his opponents are completely retarded, and who needs displays of foreign military might to keep his base satisfied with his lack of internal success.  Israel's Likud government has a precarious hold on power and opposes an Iranian ally and long-standing rival.

 

So, by making sure that a bit of money got into the right pockets, this coalition has kept the mostly Islamist opposition in Syria fed and armed.  Propaganda in the US, funded by the Saudis and powered by boomer egos, has mainly kept the public from realizing that this is exactly the sort of anthill that the US does not need to stick its dick into, although they have remained opposed to large-scale deployment of ground forces.

 

The biggest losers are, of course, the mainly secular, hip, westernized youth for whose benefit this idiotic operation was started.  And yes, I'm sure they would grit their teeth and side with Assad if any of them haven't been killed.

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Good God, Arab Spring feels like only a year or 2 ago but it was already 6 years ago? Christ man, this shit just never ends. I almost can't tell if the entire thing was an accident that fell into the neocons/globalists lap or was entirely orchestrated. Probably some of both. Has there been any stable country to make it through this? I don't hear about Tunisia at all and it wasn't on our list of countries we bombed last year so that's a positive right? The middle east just seems doomed to needing strongmen in charge.

 

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"The horrifying thing about US foreign policy is that the US is so overwhelmingly powerful, and so completely insulated from the consequences of its actions, that the primary goal of US foreign policy is to posture and to gain advantage in US domestic politics."

 

Reminds me of late Roman Republican foreign diplomacy that was primarily handled by senators posturing and threatening to make themselves look good in the next elections. Since they were also able to whip out legions almost at leisure they don't superficially seem much different either.

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Breaking , Syrian Army killed the commander of the 17th Infantry Brigade in Jaish Islam " called Maher Al-maydany -Abo Ammar in Al-Qaboon

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Military source to me , SAA Tiger forces Strikes on HTS in Tebet Al-Emam with Hevy missiles and air strikes 

Tigers may storm the village

 

Peto's map:

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NEW MAP: #SAA secured #Souran and #TellBizam. All recent #AlQaeda + allied "rebel" groups' gains have been reversed. #Hama #Syria

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I was going to post a video of parachute-retarded bombs being used on the Hama front, but of course LoooSeR already posted it.  Four years ago there were many stories complaining of the Assad government indiscriminately bombing civilian residence in areas around Hama.  Not anymore.  A lot of the smaller towns look abandoned.  I had to laugh when I heard a report on the radio describing the exchange of civilians from the besieged towns as sectarian cleansing.  They're worried about the demography of the country changing when about half of the population is already displaced?  I think that ship has sailed.

 

12 hours ago, Lostwingman said:

Good God, Arab Spring feels like only a year or 2 ago but it was already 6 years ago? Christ man, this shit just never ends. I almost can't tell if the entire thing was an accident that fell into the neocons/globalists lap or was entirely orchestrated. Probably some of both. Has there been any stable country to make it through this? I don't hear about Tunisia at all and it wasn't on our list of countries we bombed last year so that's a positive right? The middle east just seems doomed to needing strongmen in charge.

 

 

Except for Libya, Yemen and Syria the whole area has largely returned to business as usual as a bunch of corrupt, but essentially stable dictatorships.  In some places (e.g. Egypt) the name of the dictator has changed.  Iraq is obviously convulsing with sectarian violence, but it was convulsing with sectarian violence before 2011 anyway, so that doesn't really count.

 

On the whole, Arab Spring made the whole region worse, but except for Syria, Libya or Yemen, it isn't really much worse than it was before.

 

At the moment Egypt is clamping down on free-speech groups, Islamist groups, and is seeking closer military ties with Russia.  I expect that at least a few other countries will follow this course.  I would also predict that Middle Eastern governments would lobby as hard as possible for emigration of their citizens to Europe or Turkey or anywhere really.  Saudi Arabia has proven that home-grown radicals are not a problem so long as they cause trouble somewhere else.  I would further expect most countries to be aware that this is exactly what they are doing, and they won't take many immigrants as a result.

 

Egypt will probably never get rid of the Muslim Brotherhood.  That group has been around since the 1920s and it is very, very good at surviving.  I can't say it's good at anything else at all, but it is good at surviving.

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By the looks of Libya, Yemen, and Syria, they'll return to authoritarian strongmen states if they aren't partitioned into smaller states.

 

The strongest military force in Libya is the Tobruk-based Council of Deputies which is led by a former general of Gaddafi's army, Haftar, who was later groomed by the CIA in the late 80s and 90s to help overthrow Gaddafi. Haftar is sorta the run-of-the-mill regional strongman and seems to have decent international support from the west(at least formerly), Egypt, the UAE, and Russia. It's likely only a matter of time until Haftar is made defacto dictator of Libya. 

 

Yemen's civil war is largely divided between the Shia north, led by the Houthis and the older Yemeni president Saleh, and the South which is backed by the Saudis and run by Yemen's old VP, Hadi. The likely outcome(if the Saudis ever run out of mercenaries to die in the highlands to Houthi snipers) is that Yemen is just split in two, like it was before 1990, with the same old strongmen in power. 

 

Up until recently it looked as if Assad would retake most of the country and thus a return to the status quo. Yet there seems to be a lot of international interests in Syria so it may be a while until Assad takes Idlib or clears out the resistance in the suburbs of Damascus for good, but barring a large scale invasion to topple the Assad regime by the US or Turkey, it seems that this is inevitable. If the rebels "win", you'd probably be looking at a government similar to the pre-2001 Taliban. 

 

The one "success" of the Arab Spring is Tunisia where civil war didn't break out and they implemented a good deal of liberal reforms. Yet, I'd be concerned about the stability of Tunisia as Tunisia has the highest ISIS volunteers per capita anywhere in the world. 

 

So the Arab Spring has been essentially a culling of the moderate Arabs that were supposedly behind it. 

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On 4/17/2017 at 2:50 PM, Collimatrix said:

 I would further expect most countries to be aware that this is exactly what they are doing, and they won't take many immigrants as a result.

 

 

Yeah you would think, but I don't quite have that level of faith after watching first hand the levels of delusion people can live under in respective narrative bubbles. Maybe there is hope though since there was at least backlash against the Turkish politicians holding Turkish political rallies in European countries...

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