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Beer

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Everything posted by Beer

  1. No. That was offered to Slovenia, not to us. In our case it's tanks. That is officially confirmed.
  2. The recent development changes the situation somewhat. Germany came with an offer of some tanks for free in exchange for the tanks our MOD donated to Ukraine. Nobody wants to speak on public what exactly was offered but the general undestranding is that it's something requiring modernization, posibly Leopart 2A4. I'll post an update in more appropriate thread when details come out and when the position of Czech government towards the offer is more clear.
  3. From our side this time only helis including the quie famous Alien Tiger.
  4. Beer

    UAV thread

    Neither you, nor me or whomever else on this forum knows what is the average mission ratio of the TB-2 on Ukraine or for what all they have been used for. Without offering any hard data this is a not a topic for any serious discussion.
  5. That's not worth a reply but I'll try in a similar maner as Autokara. T-72B3, B3 obr.2016, T-80U family, T-80BVM, T-90A, BTR-82A, Tos-1, 1A, Tor family, Buk M2, BMP-3, BMD-4, BTR-MDM, Tigr, Typhoons, Kamaz, modern Urals, Su-34, Su-25SM, Su-30SM, Su35S, Mi-28N, Mi-35M, Ka-52, Orlan-10, Zala, Forpost etc. many other. I guess those are all Ukrainean with painted Z on them, right? Anyway whatever floats your boat. Just check if it's not sinking.
  6. An interesting onboard video dated May 9 of a launch of missiles from Tu-22M3 on Odessa. Possibly a first combat footage of Kinzhal aero-balistic missile launch (I guess Kh-32 is not land-attack capable, is it?). Btw. This Russian mantra NATO here, NATO there is just ridiculous.
  7. Beer

    UAV thread

    Our MOD is planning to order some MALE UAVs this year. At this moment the main favorite seems to be Elbit Hermes 900.
  8. This is roughly one complete Russian mechanized battalion destroyed in a failed bridging attempt near Bilohorivka (or Belogorovka in Russian) yesterday.
  9. Beer

    UAV thread

    One particularly important UAV-related point we can take from the current war is that in the drone age crossing rivers became even more difficult than in the past. With so many UAVs it's basically impossible to build a pontoon bridge which stands for more than one day before it's found and destroyed by artillery/MLRS.
  10. Beer

    UAV thread

    The grand scheme of things consists of large number of events which appear to be pretty insignifficant. In fact nearly everything appear insignificant standing next to the artillery (not only in this war) but it doesn't mean you can go to war with just artillery and nothing else.
  11. It doesn't matter for whom Oryx works or whom he supports. The point is that majority of the documented losses on his blog are real. Most of them have gigantic letters Z and V written on them and a large part of the machinery is also exclusively used only by Russia. There is certainly a grey zone in which certain losses can be attributed to both sides (lostarmour.info for comparison) but that doesn't make the list useless because there is still a lot of undisputable facts which one can take from the database. See, the 4th Guards Kantemirovskaya tank division is the only unit in this war using T-80U family of tanks. Those can't be mixed with Ukrainean. They are Russian and they are of 4th division. That's a fact. This division which was considered one of the best in the Russian army beyond any doubt lost more than 1/3 of its tanks. It doesn't mattter who delivered the message but without Oryx's list we would hardly know that because lostarmour doesn't show Russian losses at all (perhaps is not allowed to do so). My previous point that there are most likely numerous Ukrainean losses missing in the database was not about the databse per se. It's natural thing done by the side which controls the territory where losses occur. See how many Azeri losses surfaces only after the 2019 war? We will never know how many never got on public. That's simply the advantage of the side which controls the battlefield and it will continue to be like that in any future conflict.
  12. Beer

    UAV thread

    50 seems to be very inflated number (for whatever reason) but even if it was true it's more than clear that TB-2 is not a suitable weapon for penetrating into well defended airspace. It works better than I thought when used reasonably.
  13. Beer

    UAV thread

    Looking at this tweet from H I Sutton it doesn't look like the island would be abandoned (yet). Anyway Admiral Makarov was found near Sevastopol.
  14. Beer

    UAV thread

    IMHO the thing about the island is that if ever Ukraineans manage to fortify it somehow they can attack anything sailing along the whole western Crimean coastline up to Sevastopol and Balaklava by placing a neptune battery or two on the island. Sure it's tiny and therefore extremely difficult to defend but it's also the only way for Ukraine to get Sevastopol within their range.
  15. I remember reading somewhere (can't recall where anymore) that one of the videos was actuallly taken by Ukrainean soldier and that the tank was not abandoned. The damaged one for sure was. Anyway it's just a tiny number.
  16. IMHO the picture of the way how VSU fights is somewhat distorted by the lack of evidence of their losses. It's obvious that Ukraineans manage to hide well large part of their losses - if you'd place all existing photos and videos of the VSU losses on the map you would find large areas of the battlefield with no footage at all. I think that the media image of light infantry war is not correct. Regarding the Bulats it's also a question how many of them are actually present in VSU units. They didn't have many and they lost around 20 in 2014 battles. Two of the three recently known lost ones were destroyed by an airstrike on the Kharkiv tank school yeard. I believe only one of them was lost in combat.
  17. That obviously isn't true. The island was not deserted which is clearly proven by the fact that there is a lot of secondary explosions from stored ammo and that two more Raptor crafts were hit around the island afterwards. The statement about mechanical failure of a Tor launcher is also good only for someone who didn't see the footage. Overall it was at least two Tors, one Strela 10M and two ZU-23-2 destroyed on the island by the strikes preparing the way for the Su-27 strike. Since this part of the statement is obviously untrue I don't see any reason why the rest shall be true. Also even the Wagner's RSOFM telegram stated that the destroyed helicopter was Russian and that the island was deserted only afterwards.
  18. Beer

    UAV thread

    Bayraktar TB-2 versus Russian Mi-8AMTSh on the Zmijinyi island. And some more Raptor crafts. It looks like after the cruiser Moscow is gone this part of the Black sea became a free hunting ground for TB-2 as there are no AD/airforce elements present to prevent them doing so.
  19. After the Bayraktars disabled the AD of the Zmijinyi island in previous strikes they did this with a pair of Su-27 carrying heavier ordonance. There must be barely anything left on the island and I personally don't see the Russian to try to hold it anymore. Watch till the end.
  20. The prototype of the Ukrainean 155 mm SpH Bohdana allegedly in action in Donbas.
  21. Żółć may correct me but I believe there is a plan for having joint US/Polish repair and mainteanance facility for M1 in Poland adjacent to the new US forward storage base. I don't know how much of a real advantage it is to have Germany as a supplier of the Leos just over the border. The German foreign and military policy has been fickle and the tanks are produced in Greece anyway. I agree with the weight. Same issue for our eventual purchase.
  22. IMHO Running three different modern MBT families (plus fourth type in reserve) would be just mad and I don't think the Polish MOD is mad. That's what only the Gulf states do.
  23. I don't think that it's the main criteria. My few cents how I feel it here (not saying I am right of course). There are only three viable options - Leopard 2, Abrams, K2. IMHO Merkava or Leclerc are not on the table (despite our traditionally good relationship with Israel). Out of those three we can safely say that K2 has a chance only if Czechia is not alone in EU to buy it. After the failed bid in Poland the chances are slim. Maybe if Norway selects the K2..., otherwise no chance even though K2 would be for sure a very interesting option for the military because it has some reasonable advantages for us such as three-men crew or lower weight. Leopard 2 is for sure a sensible option from technical point of view but I think that the militaty would prefer cooperation with US (and Poland) rather than Germany. Just have a look on the stuff we are using. We are neighbouring with Germany but we use basically no German weapons, none of Euro projects lead by Germany, not even anything second-hand (we have a handful of Dingo II but that's it). The reasons are IMHO purely political. The new government leans even more towards US and at least for now it also stands with Poland. Now when Poland decided for Abrams the option to share the Polish service and mainteanance base with them and Americans is for sure very attractive (despite all the technical troubles the Abrams brings for us - mainly the excessive weight). On the other hand it's also possible that some sort of weapon deal with Germany may also go through in the future as a sort of friendly gesture. We'll see.
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