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On Tuesday, BBC correspondents reported that a few armoured vehicles had been seen on a main public road outside the capital city, Harare, having left one of the country's main military barracks, Inkomo.

It is not clear where they were heading but they were not seen on the streets of the city itself. One of the vehicles had broken down on the side of the road.

_98755632_042997945.jpg

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-41991425

 

Coup 101: make sure your vehicles work first

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2 hours ago, Xlucine said:

 

Coup 101: make sure your vehicles work first

 

11 hours ago, Priory_of_Sion said:

Pretty sure the AFVs are Chinese-made ZSD-89-IIs  

 

11 hours ago, Priory_of_Sion said:

 

the AFVs are Chinese-made

 

11 hours ago, Priory_of_Sion said:

Chinese-made

 

:Iwanttofightcommunism:

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I'm actually hoping the coup runners are successful on this one, I mean they can't possibly be worse than Mugabe himself can they?

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I'll have to check with my father-in-law since one of his best friends lives in that hellhole. 

 

I'm almost afraid that the coup will be about Mugabe not being evil enough.

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3 hours ago, Sturgeon said:

 

MwA9k.gif

 

Ok YES, so it could be alot worse, but at least the coup leader doesn't have "near record shitting on economy", "deposing people of certain skin colors so that other farmers could have their lands" and "literal ethnic genocide" on his list like Mugabe yet.

 

.......not that we know of at least.

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Well, you would have to try really hard to manage to be worse than Mugabe at running a country. This coup is likely going to be the 1st coup in a series of coups to follow in Zimbabwe.

Developing nations generally face a cycle in regards to coups that can end in a spiral of civilian governments and coups against them. Militaries in developing countries are almost always politicized, usually the best organized and with the highest concentration of skilled people in those countries. Unlike developed nations, coups are not always seen as unsavory and unpromising as the people usually have little faith in their civilian governments due to poverty; politics don't mean much as long as it gets them out of poverty. Very often, coups are supported in these countries if it means that an inept or corrupt ruler is gotten rid of, especially for countries with limited democratic institutions, where the military acts as the final balance or check. The military is often seen as patriotic by the people, especially if they remove a corrupt and incompetent ruler like Mugabe.

 

The usual cycle is that the civilian government loses the backing of the military for whatever reason, through incompetence, corruption or in this case trying to get rid of military influence in government. Military throws coup and administers for a short period of time before returning power to a civilian government with very few exceptions. Militaries have recognized that they are generally not very good at governing and the international community frowns upon military governments, making trade and loans much harder to obtain. The new civilian government will get into the swamp and likely be overthrown by the military for being too inept or corrupt and the cycle continues. The only way out of the cycle is to develop political consciousness within the country, eventually making coups frowned upon and unsavory for the populace; the only way to achieve that is to develop and lift people out of destitute poverty.

 

I am optimistic about this coup since it is a relatively bloodless coup to remove Mugabe from office and get someone that likely has more opposition into power, making the new leader more likely to compromise with opposition for the future development of Zimbabwe, especially with the threat of the possibility of a coup. Furthermore, removing someone like Mugabe may give Zimbabwe a relatively clean slate and attract some foreign investment into the country, which it is desperately lacking in Zimbabwe.

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15 hours ago, Khand-e said:

 

Ok YES, so it could be alot worse, but at least the coup leader doesn't have "near record shitting on economy", "deposing people of certain skin colors so that other farmers could have their lands" and "literal ethnic genocide" on his list like Mugabe yet.

 

.......not that we know of at least.

 

There's that trademark Khand-e optimism!

 

Here's my guess; the commander of the Zimbabwean military met with the Chinese military shortly before the coup.  This was just days after the VP of Zimbabwe was ousted.  It appeared at the time that Robert Mugabe was clearing the way for his wife, Grace Mugabe, to succeed him.

What it looks like from this side of the Atlantic is that the military thought the VP would be a dandy successor, they didn't like Grace, and they went to the Chinese.  The Chinese said, "yep, shit's whack.  Do what you've got to do."  And then the tanks started (mostly) rolling.

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11 minutes ago, Collimatrix said:

As an Administrator I am privileged to occasionally present my wild-assed guesses:

 

The Zimbabwe coup is Chinese backed, and furthermore it was greenlit by the Trump administration as part of a quid pro quo on a North Korea deal.

One can hope.

I seriously think one of the best outcomes in NK would be the Chinese backing and orchestrating a coup in NK, and then basically taking over.

 

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Why would China want a regime change (from a Chinese-friendly one to another Chinese-friendly one) in Zimbabwe in exchange for potentially destabilizing a nuclear-armed state on their border? 

 

OTOH, a deal concerning the US conceding the South China Sea dispute would probably get the Chinese to put more pressure on NK. Though the notion that China can magically deal with the North Koreans is wrongheaded in my opinion. 

 

39 minutes ago, Belesarius said:

One can hope.

I seriously think one of the best outcomes in NK would be the Chinese backing and orchestrating a coup in NK, and then basically taking over.

 

From my read of NK-Chinese relations, the North Koreans are just as paranoid of this scenario as they are from a potential US/SK attack and rightfully so. The Chinese loath the North Korean leadership and vice-versa. So, the North Koreans have probably already purged anyone that would be in charge of a successful Chinese-backed coup. 

 

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, Priory_of_Sion said:

Why would China want a regime change (from a Chinese-friendly one to another Chinese-friendly one) in Zimbabwe in exchange for potentially destabilizing a nuclear-armed state on their border? 

 

 

The scenario I am envisioning is that the Chinese have concerns about Grace Mugabe.  They're OK with a leader who is corrupt but pliable, provided they can still do business and get all that delicious lithium, vanadium and copper that they need very badly.  What they're not OK with is a leader who is so corrupt and avaricious that they might try to upset the existing power structure in Zimbabwe and then try to nationalize or otherwise threaten Chinese interests in Zimbabwe.  Grace Mugabe is, by all accounts, a person who fits the latter description.

 

So, in the scenario I am envisioning, the Chinese leadership decided something ought to be done.  Ideally something quick, quiet and professional.  This was well within their capability, but there was still the question of what the Americans might do about it.  Can't have the State Department deciding that a military coup violates the will of the people and throwing a bunch of money at a color revolution or some shit.  So, they discreetly sought a guarantee from the US government not to raise a stink about the fact that they were clearly sponsoring a military coup in Africa in exchange for, I dunno, some point of cooperation on North Korea.  This doesn't necessarily include agreeing to the removal of the current NK leadership, but maybe something like holding the leash tight and making sure Kim Jong Un behaves for the next several years.

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15 minutes ago, Oedipus Wreckx-n-Effect said:

This is obviously old news for most of you, and Sturgeon will call me names, but fuck that guy anyway. 

 

I'm posting this for a single, wonerful line.


 

 

 

Professor Bike Lock?

 

He needs to be fed feet first into a dull woodchipper.

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17 hours ago, Belesarius said:

http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/16079/airliners-and-f-15s-involved-in-bizzare-encounter-with-mystery-aircraft-over-Oregon

 

Interesting article from Tyler about a hard to track aircraft over Oregon in October. Worth a read. @Collimatrix, thoughts?

 

 

That's pretty mysterious.  I got nothing.

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23 minutes ago, Collimatrix said:

 

That's pretty mysterious.  I got nothing.

Several things that got my attention: Faster than a 737, very maneuverable, painted white, and the way in which the Chair Force responded. High altitude penetrator drone from one of the letter agencies flying low for some reason?

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