South China Sea showdown/Pacific Shift discussion thread.

[Belesarius]

With the PLAN having it's eyes on making the South China Sea their local lake, the US executing the 'Pacific Shift' and everyone and their mother in the region having differing interests, I thought it was time for a general discussion thread for news about South China Sea tensions, emerging military tech that changes the balance of power in the region, and various posturing moves made by the various players in the region.

 

http://breakingdefense.com/2016/04/chinese-scarborough-shoal-base-would-threaten-manila/

 

So question for Mech, how likely do you think it is that China will try to build a base on Scarborough Shoal within the next two years?  I could see how the Philippines would loose their shit over that due to how close it is to their coast.