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LostCosmonaut

The Meteorology Thread: Hector Lives

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Tropics are putting on a big show in the Pacific. Hector is near Cat 5 and will brush Hawaii (shouldn't be too bad);

 

goes16_ir_10E_201808061506.jpg?15.1217.6

 

(satellite resolution is bad because GOES-16 is at a pretty high angle, it's meant for storms further east)

 

 

Meanwhile, John is rapidly intensifying and murdering Ileana;

 

goes16_ir_12E_201808061951.jpg?15.9252.1

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Also, per NHC, stations onshore are starting to report sustained hurricane force winds.

 



...700 PM POSITION UPDATE... ...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING AT CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA... A NOAA observing site at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 82 mph (131 km/h) and a gust to 97 mph (156 km/h).

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I'm currently in the middle of North Carolina. Most of the immediate concern here is the flooding. Aside from simply swamping things with water, the other big issue is that our sandy soil doesn't absorb water well, meaning that things like trees and telephone poles have tendency to become loose and then fall.

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The landfall intensity was estimated at 135 kt (155 mph), which makes Michael the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the continental U.S. since Andrew (1992). The minimum pressure at landfall was estimated at 919 mb, which is the third lowest landfall pressure in the United States. A University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site measured a minimum pressure of 920.2 mb.

 

 

d92.png

michael-oct10-vis.jpg

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Hurricane Michael also resulted in the appearance of the rarest NWS advisory, the Extreme Wind Warning.

 

43556299_2016654055039529_16501989900057

 

The Extreme Wind Warning was created after the 2005 season, when NWS offices in Mississippi and Louisiana issued tornado warnings for counties that were going to be affected by Katrina's winds, but weren't actually getting hit by tornadoes.

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However, one look at any of the forecast
soundings shows how impressive/deep the stratospheric intrusion
is/will be -- with the tropopause (the separation between the
troposphere and stratosphere) expected to fall to as low as
3kft- 4kft AGL this afternoon -- which is almost unheard of for
these latitudes. This is what truly speaks to the rarity of this
pattern that has evolved, even if daily records are not
met/exceeded.

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ILN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=3&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

Stratosphere is getting ridiculously low

 

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It snowed on Hawaii.

 

https://www.sfgate.com/weather/article/Hawaii-recorded-what-may-be-the-lowest-elevation-13607099.php

 

On Sunday, Maui's 10,000-foot Haleakala received a thick dusting and snow also accumulated at 6,200 feet in Polipoli State Recreation Area.

 

Officials at the Department of Land and Natural Resources say this could mark the lowest-elevation snowfall ever recorded in the state.

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Some interesting things going on in the Southern hemisphere. First, Australia is under threat from two different tropical cyclones, Veronica and Trevor;

 

IDE00133.201903222130.jpg

 

 

More unusually, several models are forecasting development of a fairly deep warm-core cyclone off the southeast coast of Brazil.

 

71.phase1.png

 

71.phase2.png

 

(GFS and Canadian model also show it but keep it weaker)

 

South Atlantic tropical cyclones are highly rare, with only one known to have reached hurricane strength; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Catarina

 

 

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Hurricane Michael is posthumously a Category 5 at landfall; https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/hurricane-michael-upgraded-to-category-5-at-time-of-us-landfall

 

Only the 4th to hit CONUS in recorded history (if you count outlying possessions, the US actually got hit by two category 5 storms in 2018).

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