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Belesarius

Saudi Arabia vs Iran thread.

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I'm of the opinion that Saudi Arabia and Iran are gonna throw down soon.  The winds of war blow in that direction, with Saudi buying tons of weaponry, and lining up strategic partners.

 

https://www.defencetalk.com/israel-ready-to-cooperate-with-saudi-arabia-to-face-iran-defence-chief-70829/

 

Just hoping the US stays out of it. Not worth getting involved, IMO.

 

 

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Good idea for a thread.  The various Iran/Saudi proxy wars that are not covered in other threads will go here as well.

 

I for one, am curious about how much money these proxy wars are costing the Saudis.  There have been some noises that they're in fiscal trouble.

 

Likewise, I'm curious how the Iranians are affording all of this fun.

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Like in the Iran-Iraq War, you just wish that both sides will lose. 

 

Although with the Saudis, I guess you're betting on the come - to use gamblers parlance - that the Crown Prince will be able to turn around the country culturally. The Iranians on the other hand are irredeemable until you have regime change ousting the 12th Imam fellating mullahs in charge. 

 

The Saudis are snakes but I guess they're OUR snakes...

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2 hours ago, SergeantMatt said:

I'm rooting for the chaos of the war to cause the Saoshyant to emerge, lead a Zoroastrian Revolution, and restore the SasanianAchaemenid Empire.

FTFY

 

I don't think the Saudis & Gulf Friends will directly fight the Iranians as long as the US and Israel don't join along. 

 

I have some questions that I've been trying to answer regarding this hypothetical war:

 

  • Where would you invade Iran from? Southern Iraq into Khuzestan seems like the easiest route if you were to ignore that Southern Iraq would likely be filled with Iraqi Shia militias aligned with Iran. Crossing the Persian Gulf seems like a disaster waiting to happen. Using Afghanistan as a staging ground for invading Iran sounds like a bad idea, but is probably the best. I doubt you could use Turkmenistan, Turkey, or Azerbaijan as staging areas. 
  • In the same vein, how are you going to get from Iran's borders to Tehran which is kinda in the middle of the country? Afghanistan has similar geography, but the Taliban didn't have S-300s. 
  • How willing are the Saudis/Israelis/Americans willing to take casualties? The Saudis have mostly been using mercenaries in Yemen, but a war with Iran will likely need them to actually send its own soldiers onto the battlefield. Israel fought Hezbollah in 2006 and took relatively heavy casualties before deciding that it was going to be a lot bloodier than they originally thought, and Hezbollah is an even better fighting force now than it was in 2006. If America was to invade Iran, I think it would make Iraq look like a cakewalk. 
  • Iran doesn't seem to have the offensive capabilities to conventionally invade another country, but is it possible for them to try to turn Bahraini and Eastern Saudi Arabian Shia into some sort of Hezbollah-like group and get a foothold on the other side of the Gulf? 
  • Would the Saudis & friends actually be ok with a near useless war that shuts down the Persian Gulf and thus their economies? 

I'm more optimistic about reform in Iran once Khamenei dies in a year or so. Rafsanjani should've been Ayatollah instead fwiw. 

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43 minutes ago, Priory_of_Sion said:

I don't think the Saudis & Gulf Friends will directly fight the Iranians as long as the US and Israel don't join along.

 

Yemen is probably going to last a long time as a proxy.

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16 minutes ago, Ramlaen said:

 

Yemen is probably going to last a long time as a proxy.

Yep, Yemen has been a rather low-cost endeavor for Iran too. As long as the Saudis don't starve every Zaidi Shia in Yemen to death, the Houthis are going to bleed them. 

 

And hell, I'd say that Iran has already basically won its proxy war against Saudi Arabia in Syria. 

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1 hour ago, Priory_of_Sion said:

FTFY

 

I don't think the Saudis & Gulf Friends will directly fight the Iranians as long as the US and Israel don't join along.

 

 

Given that the Repubs are generally hawkish against Iran, and the Israelis seem willing to go after Iran I'm not as confident that this won't kick off as others seem to be.  Given that the Saudis are stunningly incompetent, I expect it to be a glorious mess when it does kick off.  Here's hoping saner heads prevail.

 

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18 hours ago, Collimatrix said:

Interesting article:

 

https://ericmargolis.com/2017/11/what-craziness-is-going-on-in-saudi-arabia/

 

Claims that the recent Saudi purges are to consolidate power and to get money for the Yemen war.

Margolis is an interesting guy. I generally don't discount him as he's been around for a while and has a pretty good handle on international affairs. He was the Toronto Sun's international guy for a lot of years.

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