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US/Iran flirting with quagmire thred.


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"rofl-stomping" doesn't fit in the usual list of goals in conflict. Iran's likely goal is to be the biggest pain in the arse possible, and they have the deck stacked in their favour:   21% o

Photos from base that was hit by Iranian missiles.    

Called off strike has been officially confirmed  

MARAD claims that Iran was fucking around with GPS and false radio contacts:

 

Spoiler

Since May 2019, the following maritime incidents have occurred in this region:

- Six attacks against commercial vessels (see U.S. Maritime Alerts 2019-002A and 2019-003A);

- Shoot-down of U.S. Navy remotely piloted aircraft over international waters;

- Attempted at-sea interdiction of Isle of Man-flagged M/V BRITISH HERITAGE;

- Seizure of ex-Panama-flagged M/V RIAH;

- Seizure of U.K.-flagged M/V STENA IMPERO (see U.S. Maritime Alert 2019-004A); and

- Detention and subsequent release of Liberian-flagged M/V MESDAR (see U.S. Maritime Alert 2019-004A).

In at least two of these incidents, vessels reported GPS interference. One vessel reportedly shut off its Automatic Identification System (AIS) before it was seized, complicating response efforts. Vessels have also reported spoofed bridge-to-bridge communications from unknown entities falsely claiming to be U.S. or coalition warships.

The United States is committed to safeguarding freedom of navigation, the free flow of commerce, and the protection of U.S. vessels and personnel in this region.

source: https://www.maritime.dot.gov/content/2019-012-persian-gulf-strait-hormuz-gulf-oman-arabian-sea-red-sea-threats-commercial-vessels

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  • 4 months later...

   Ukrainian expert Oleg Ponomar about recent events.

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   Trump, Iran and Putin's shadow

   Trump has no right to start a war with Iran without the approval of Congress. But when Trump needs to divert America's attention from impeachment and raise a little rating, then he did not care about the Law.

 

   Now to the point.
Of course, the United States destroyed the top Iranian terrorist (but another will take its place).
Of course, with current intelligence and military technology, the United States can destroy almost anyone and choose the time for this.
And, of course, this is a PR action.

But ordinary peopletm are ecstatic and trampists all over the world are ecstatic (and Ukrainian too).
But no one thinks about the whole picture.

 

   Obama had a desire, a goal and a plan - to punish Russia for an aggressive foreign policy and deprive her of funds for an aggressive foreign policy and attempts to restore (informally) the USSR. What is the main source of money for Russia and Putin? That's right - oil. Obama agreed with the Saudis to increase production and not to complete the OPEC deal. Obama made a nuclear deal with Iran and lifted sanctions - Iranian oil flowed to the market and the price fell to $ 30 per barrel from 115. Russia lost money and was forced to eat the Reserve Fund (completely) and wait (and work on it) for Trump.
/.../
   The deal worked perfectly.

   Then Trump came, broke the deal, removed Iranian oil from the market. The price of oil has doubled; the "fat years" have begun again for Russia. Those. Trump for Russia has given hundreds of billions of dollars that Russia spends on hybrid wars. With this money, Russia destroys Ukraine and Ukrainians.

 

   But trampists don’t think so hard, right? They are ecstatic - Trump destroyed the terrorist, how cool he is! Not that Obama (in which Russia sat quietly and clattered her teeth).
   Trumpists want spectacles - a war with Iran.

Full REEEEE mode, lol.

 

Anyway, Russian position could be "let them fight" and if Saudis will get schwacked in the process - collect even more profit from increased oil prices. And destroy Ukraine later.

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Yesterday Iraqi parlament voted on a bill to remove all foreign troops from Iraq and close the airspace. Trump already started to treaten Iraq with sanctions over that. Will US try to hold the small and thinly spread forces in Iraq and Syria? I don't think it's actually feasible if Shiites start attacking them en masse unless US brings let's say 100 thousand more troops in Iraq, i.e. occupy it again. On the other hand if US pulls the troops out of Iraq Soleimani ultimately achieved his main goal in his death, so... 

 

Meanwhile Qatari foreign minister was in Tehran. 

 

Also meanwhile Iraqi PM Abdul-Mahdi said that Soleimani came to Baghdad carrying a letter from Iran to Saudi Arabia which was an answer to Saudi letter delivered previously through Iraq working as a mediator in the process of Saudi-Iranian deescalation. 

 

What seems to be sure (at least I think so) is that no ballistic missiles will start falling on Al Udeid, King Fahd, Muwaffaq or Ahmad al Jaber airbases. Soleimani would never act like that hence why I expect IRGC will continue his strategy to outmaneuvre US and Saudi with proxies. 

 

Now we have to wait for the actual funeral of Soleimani to be over. For sure Iran won't do anything before it. 

 

 

 

 

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Yeah. The vote in the Iraqi Parliament was boycotted by the Kurds and Sunnis and is entirely symbolic.

Meanwhile the Trump Administration has informed them they are on the hook financially for all of our military infrastructure improvements should there ever be a day we are “expelled” which is unlikely.

It needs emphasizing. Again. This is not the Obama (or Dubya) Administration.

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US just informed Iraq that it's going to leave the country. 

 

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In order to conduct this task, Coalition Forces are required to take certain measures to ensure that the movement out of Iraq is conducted in a safe and efficient manner. 

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   From Yuri Lyamin's LJ post.

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   In my opinion, nothing like this happened in Iran since the burial of Imam Khomeini in 1989, although it is possible that the mass mourning of Suleymani has already surpassed that level. Judging by the frames and videos that come from Iran, in my memory, not a single mourning ceremony for other senior military and religious persons, other demonstrations, etc. in Iran can’t compare with what is happening these days. The streets of different cities of Iran are simply crowded with millions of people who say goodbye to the national hero and demand retaliation.

 

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Spoiler

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It's no mistake of the media. The US actually delivered this "draft" letter to Iraqi government. The leak came from Iraq and US representatives confirmed the story. They are either bunch of clowns or somebody did it in purpose. 

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/LizSly/status/1214297805659017222

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5 hours ago, Beer said:

It's no mistake of the media. The US actually delivered this "draft" letter to Iraqi government. The leak came from Iraq and US representatives confirmed the story. They are either bunch of clowns or somebody did it in purpose. 

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/LizSly/status/1214297805659017222

 

And the official response to why it is exists.

 

While perhaps not the finest moment of American military history, in some respects, it's not that surprising that something like this happened. There's a lot of moving parts in organizations like this, and especially with an unsigned draft, that means almost nothing. When I was a lower enlisted man in the army, I made drafts for several majors and a full-bird colonel. Mind you, I wasn't in communications or a secretorial position at all. It was just something that happened out of displaying competence within my unit. A lot of times it was for contingency situations or rather dry items ("Permission to extend sick leave, the new SHARP trainer is", etc). Later on, if they liked or approved it for distribution, then it would get signed, become official, and finally circulated outside. 

 

My educated guess is that someone probably swapped it up accidentally with a different memo regarding air transport for something actually going on right now. Or alternatively, someone was trying to give someone else an unofficial heads-up of what might be in the works or how something might look.

Edited by GMerlon
clarified language ambiguity
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   Amount of people arrived to Kerman is really huge.

https://imp-navigator.livejournal.com/890118.html

Quote

/.../

   The body of the commander of the IRGC, Qassem Suleymani, was brought to his native Kerman for burial. However, the local authorities did not seem to calculate how massive the influx of people who came to say goodbye to the general from other regions of the country would be. From all over Iran, according to some estimates, about 1-2 million people came to the city with a population of about 700 thousand.

   Judging by the footage, the city streets are really crowded there, many thousands of people even occupied unfinished buildings and the slopes of the surrounding mountains. Unfortunately, there was a big stampede, 40 people died according to the latest official data and 213 were injured. The burial itself has so far been temporarily delayed in order to prevent new similar incidents.

 

KXTecn5.jpg

 

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5 hours ago, Beer said:

 

 

I wasn't able to find anything that directly said that the US government acknowledged sending a signed copy of the letter. Do you have a source for that? The Iraqi prime minister states that he did receive one though, but I haven't seen any images of it online anywhere. This isn't too necessarily say that it didn't necessarily happen, but the original revealers of the letter and the Iraqi PM both have political motive for wanting such a thing exposed.

 

Perhaps more pressing now, Iran has apparently launched missiles at US troops.

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It looks like it was more or less a demonstration strike (i was wrong saying no missiles will fly) but the satelite images of some impacts show it was actually a precise one.

 

Iraq says they were notified beforehand and it's likely Iraq warned US, i.e. it could have happened the same way as Trump's strike on Syria months a go, i.e. a demonstration of capability and determination with minimal actual damage. Let's see if it ends with that. 

 

What is interesting is US saying they have no AA assets in Iraq. 

 

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17 hours ago, GMerlon said:

 

I wasn't able to find anything that directly said that the US government acknowledged sending a signed copy of the letter. Do you have a source for that? The Iraqi prime minister states that he did receive one though, but I haven't seen any images of it online anywhere. This isn't too necessarily say that it didn't necessarily happen, but the original revealers of the letter and the Iraqi PM both have political motive for wanting such a thing exposed.

 

The source was the twitter post. The guy saying that works for Washington Post. 

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29 minutes ago, Beer said:

It looks like it was more or less a demonstration strike (i was wrong saying no missiles will fly) but the satelite images of some impacts show it was actually a precise one.

 

Iraq says they were notified beforehand and it's likely Iraq warned US, i.e. it could have happened the same way as Trump's strike on Syria months a go, i.e. a demonstration of capability and determination with minimal actual damage. Let's see if it ends with that. 

 

What is interesting is US saying they have no AA assets in Iraq. 

 


qUiTe pRecIsE!!!

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    • By LoooSeR
      Well, looking at amount of info that i can get about Al-Mukowama, i decided to make a separate thread about them where we (or just me) will collect information about Al-Mukowama aka Hezbollah aka Islamic Resistance of Lebanon. Will try to update this thread as often as new information will be avaliable.
       
         First section will be about Hezbollah military wing/Al-Mukowama in general. Second - infantry. 3rd - armor, 4th - special services.
       
         Creating this thread now, will add major updates later.
      ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________
       

       
       
         1. What is Hezbollah
          Hebollah is a Lebanon political party that represents southern Lebanon and shia communities interests and also is big part of social life in Lebanon (healthcare, construction, education, etc.). 
         "Hezbollah not only has armed and political wings – it also boasts an extensive social development program. Hezbollah currently operates at least four hospitals, twelve clinics, twelve schools and two agricultural centres that provide farmers with technical assistance and training. It also has an environmental department and an extensive social assistance program. Medical care is also cheaper than in most of the country's private hospitals and free for Hezbollah members." (yes, this is from wiki, but it represents social aspect of Hezbollah pretty well)
         Current views on organisation are very different, but all they can be generally divided in 2 point of views - first is that organisation aim is the abolition of the confessional political system imposed by the colonialists, replacing it with an Islamic states modeled on Iranian example second is that organisation gone though serious re-view of it's place and ideaology and accepted Lebanon internal politics rules and now work to improve shia communities place in Lebanon society. 
       
         A bit of history. 
         After South Lebanon occupation in 1982, different existing groups of shias (including radicals), that were not connected to "Amal" party (only shia party at the time in Lebanon) started to form a "Hezbollah" in Bekaa valley. Unification of different groups was happening in the same time with increasing connection with Iran, that was looking at possibilities of "exporting" Islamic Revolution to other countries in the region. Bekaa was de-facto controlled by Syria, which had direct impact (although not critical) on creation of Hezbollah. Syria allowed a connection of Hezbollah and Iran IRSG personal, that started to train first groups of Islamic resistance. Syrian officials and Hezbollah contact were limited, main questions were paths of weapons and supplies to formed organisation to combat Israelis in Lebanon and security issues.
         Following the conclusion of the Taif Agreement and end of Lebanon civil war in 1990, Syria became a guarantor of stability in Lebanon and had serious influence on internal policy of neighbor. Hezbollah/Lebanon Resistance was allowed to have weapons and continue their actions against Israel. Syrian officials did not interfere with economic re-building plan, that was put in place by Lebanon gov. After Israelis left Southern Lebanon in 2000, the "Hezbollah-Syria-Iran" axis did not stopped to work, actually it continued to work pretty well.
       

       
         "Cedar Revolution" in 2005 and withdrawal of Syrian forces changed political landscape of Lebanon, opening new possibilites for Hezbollah - for the first time organisation competed for a place in the government. On March 8, 2005, after only a few weeks after the assassination of Rafiq Hariri (Prime Minister Rafik Hariri of Lebanon in 1992-1998 and of 2000-2004. He was killed in Beirut in a terrorist act of 14 February 2005), when anti-Syrian sentiment in Lebanon were at the highest point, the General secretary of "Hezbollah" Nasrallah spoke in support of Syria. "Hezbollah" was to counter the paradigm, formed in Lebanon about orientation to the West and Saudi Arabia, and offered it's own project, but it was feasible "only with the preservation of regional partners".
         Over  course of 2000s "Hezbollah" was the main proponent of this vector of development. Support in Lebanon was achieved through large-scale social projects, including nondenominational, individual successes at the border with Israel and the active promotion of the Islamic Resistance. 
       
         "Arab Spring".
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         The victory of the party "An-Nahda" in Tunisia, in terms of Hezbollah was an opportunity for Tunisia to find their own political identity and refuse Westernization. In the same way, Hezbollah welcomed the success of "Muslim Brotherhood" in Egypt, but later abandoned it because of the Syrian issue.  With regard to the events in Libya, "Hezbollah" has supported the overthrow of Gaddafi, but condemned Western intervention. It is worth mentioning that "Hezbollah" has long accused Gaddafi in the disappearance and alleged murder in 1978 of Musa al-Sadr, an important figure of the "Shiite revival" in Lebanon.
       
         Arab Spring and Syria
         "Hezbollah" approach to the assessment of events in the neighboring Syrian is radically different from the one described above, but based on the same criteria. Syria - an essential element of the "resistance front" (al-Jabhat Mumanaa) Iran-Syria-"Hezbollah", despite the fact that on the Syrian-Israeli border for a long time remained calm. 
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      Lebanese President Michel Aoun with Hezbollah MP Mohammad Raad surrounded by Al-Muqowama fighters at a Hezbollah site in South Lebanon.
       
       
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