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Short summary of that analysis.      Azerbaijan army conducting attack of Nagorniy Karabakh from 2 directions - Southern and Northern. Main attack is happening against city of Martakert (Nor

Massive fighting started along most of the Nagorno Karabakh border. The situation looks very serious as both Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia declared martial law and started general mobilisation.   

3rd pic show wheel that Mi-8s doesn't have. According to what i saw, those photos are from 2013, Russian AN-2 crash. That wheel looks like is a rear wheel of AN-2.

   Armenian videos showing Azeri infantry being shelled.

 

 

   People geolocated them place from some of footage, and it appears from near Fizuli.

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   This means Azerbaijan army is now trying to assault areas near Fizuli, which may result in collapse of defences near Hadrut (mountain range near Hadrut that works as stronghold for NKR, have strategic value for war in southern NKR). If Az will take Fizuli and territory around it, they will be able to conduct flanking attack and cut off some of NKR forces near Hadrut and capture of road network of this region.

 

 

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   Map showing changes in territory control, including fresh advances near Fizuli

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   That bulge hanging to south from area between Fizuli and Hadrut is what i was talking about - it appears that this is a mountain range where Armenian/NKR infantry have significant presence and use it as stronghold. It appears to be an obsticle for next phase of Azerbaijan army operation, thats why assault on Fizuli was started - to cut off those troops and forces to retreat.

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The destruction of NKR 36D6 premumably by IAI Harop kamikaze UAS radar of S-300PS battery cought on CCTV. 

 

Azeri websites published two videos today of a capture and subsequent execution of two NKR/Armenian soldiers. I will not post that one. You can easily find them even though the original upload is already deleted.

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https://telegra.ph/Pri-shturme-Gadruta-Azerbajdzhan-primenil-300-mm-reaktivnye-snaryady-k-RSZO-Smerch-s-kassetnoj-boevoj-chastyu-s-samopricelivayus-10-16

   From one of early videos from Hadrut - people noticed relativly big number of civilian cars left in the town. After looking closer it appears that Azeri forces used Smerch 9M55K1 missiles with "Motiv-3M" self-guided AT submunitions during assaults on Hadrut. Motiv-3M uses IR sensors to detect heat signatures and attacks them from altitude of ~100-150 meters.

   Bunch of cars visible left by locals.

 

   On this video few cars have visible damage:

 

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   This could be a reason why civilians didn't used cars to escape town, or at least one of several. 

 

   Submunition (pic from Syria, where it was used by VKS in canister bombs like RBK-500)

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   9M55K1 missile and schematics of how it works.

Spoiler

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   2 stage missile, after combat/command state separates it flies until parachute deploys. Command module than measures altitude with radiometer and deploys submunitions on their own parachutes, which search for targets and attacking them with EFP.

 

 

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   Stepanakert after periodical shelling by Azeri forces

 

   Armenian forces launched 2 Elbrus missiles vs Ganja, 20 houses destroyed were reported.

 

   Pashinyan and reservists heading to Artsakh

 

 

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I can't see much chances for Armenia to keep the NKR territory. They are clearly on the loosing side and it's not getting any better for them. 

 

These are totally devastating numbers.

 

Azeri convoy hit by Armenian artillery. Looks like some trucks probably carried ammo. 

 

In other news another An-2 decoy wreck. 

 

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   Azeri army is pushing deeper into Karabakh.

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   President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev announced control of the city of Zangilan and 24 villages in four districts in Karabakh by the Azerbaijani army

  Green zone on this map - Zangilan, near Armenian border.

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   Southern group of forces of Azerbaijan is lushing north, reached this town, there were reports of heavy combat from this area.

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