Syrian conflict.

[Mighty_Zuk]

48 minutes ago, Sgt.Squarehead said:

That will go down well with their southern neighbours.

 

But if the Russians decide to deliver it in person and maybe supply some technical advisers along with the weapons, it will be a whole different ball game.

Doubt it. On one hand, Russia can supply the S-300 in its older variants, and have it destroyed in the next attack as if nothing happened, because that system is very familiar to the west (for example Greece). Russia will be able to say it's just an older variant but it'll have no tactical yield.

Or Russia could supply one of the more modern versions, be completely in the dark as to whether it will work, and definitely suffer on the marketing of it later.

[Ramlaen]

 

[Mighty_Zuk]

15 minutes ago, Ramlaen said:

 

That could explain the high volume of missiles, but why are there no satellite images of the damage there, then?

[Sgt.Squarehead]

Reports of another attack are breaking, this one in Aleppo, targeting Iranian assets.....Apparently the handiwork of Israel:

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/explosion-heard-government-controlled-area-south-aleppo-monitor-200014979.html

 

https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5230445,00.html

[Mighty_Zuk]

Ninja'd, I was.

Seems Israel is ramping up airstrikes on Iranian targets. I really have no time for another war with Hezbollah so I guess it's a good thing.

[LoooSeR]

21 hours ago, Sgt.Squarehead said:

Reports of another attack are breaking, this one in Aleppo, targeting Iranian assets.....Apparently the handiwork of Israel:

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/explosion-heard-government-controlled-area-south-aleppo-monitor-200014979.html

 

https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5230445,00.html

 

I didn't saw any confirmation on those strikes so far.

[Sgt.Squarehead]

It's gone quiet.....I posted the best of the links that I spotted, the others were from UK red-tops which I tend to ignore TBH.

[LoooSeR]

Charly tries to count missiles.

http://charly015.blogspot.ru/2018/04/llego-el-ataque-contra-siria.html

 

76 claimed missiles against "R&D" facility in Damascus. 

lol

 

Claims vs what can be seen on sat photos:

 

 

another target:

 

 

Quote

Creo que ha quedado demostrado que EEUU ha mentido en dos aspectos fundamentales de este ataque:

1º Que ningún misil fue derribado

2º Que se lanzaron 105 misiles contra 3 instalaciones.

 

"I think it has been shown that the US has lied in two fundamental aspects of this attack:

1º That no missile was shot down

2º That 105 missiles were launched against 3 installations."

 

Additional photos 

Spoiler

 

 

 

[Sgt.Squarehead]

They really didn't like that first building one little bit, did they? 

 

It is starting to look like a bit of a nothing-burger attack again though isn't it.....What's the total damage?  If we assume that Assad doesn't actually have a chemical weapons program (keep in mind that history broadly demonstrates that US/UK claims on this subject tend to be fabrications) then I'd say it amounds to a 100+ cruise missile dent in western cash-flow and SFA to Assad. 

 

 

[LoooSeR]

Facility in Damascus from a drone by Alexandr Kots from KP newspaper

 

Damage could be done by 3-6 missiles as those buildings were not particularly big.

 

[LoooSeR]

Kalibr cruise missile, if hit building directly, can level it almost completely

Kalibr is visible on the right (shadow)

 

 

 

Pieces of walls are visible, flying away.

[LoooSeR]

[LoooSeR]

It appears that this position was AA position, probably no longer used for AA work, but to storage some shit

 

 

   All targeted buildings were build without any fortification work done, unlike all other parts of this position. Storage area for additional missiles had walls build around it with for protection.  

 

 

[Belesarius]

Some random thoughts on this strike.

 

1. A 70% loss rate for non-stealth munitions is actually low for an attack on contested airspace.  So the Russian MOD numbers for an attack on contested airspace are if anything, low.  I'd personally expect closer to 80-85% losses on non-stealthed munitions, given my understanding of US attack doctrine in contested airspace.  YMMV.

 

2. The sat photos of the targets hit do not indicate damage from 100+ missiles.

 

3. Given that these were supposed to be chemical weapons sites, there is little, if any indication of secondary exposure to nerve agents if you hit an actual chemical weapons site.

 

 

 

[Mighty_Zuk]

My speculation is that 76mm missiles were fired with the notion that at least half would be intercepted because there was a SAM base VERY close to Barzah. 

[LoooSeR]

7 minutes ago, Belesarius said:

Some random thoughts on this strike.

 

1. A 70% loss rate for non-stealth munitions is actually low for an attack on contested airspace.  So the Russian MOD numbers for an attack on contested airspace are if anything, low.  I'd personally expect closer to 80-85% losses on non-stealthed munitions, given my understanding of US attack doctrine in contested airspace.  YMMV.

 

2. The sat photos of the targets hit do not indicate damage from 100+ missiles.

 

3. Given that these were supposed to be chemical weapons sites, there is little, if any indication of secondary exposure to nerve agents if you hit an actual chemical weapons site.

 

 

 

1) SAA use old system, i think 70 missiles out of 105 is a lie by MoD, would expect 20-40 intercepted as more realistic number. Only system with high chances of interception of cruise missiles are Buk-M2Es and Pantsirs, probably Pechoras, which Syria have in low numbers

 

2) Photos from those places would help

 

3) They destroyed some shacks, insides of which are very unlikely to contain anything explosive or chemical dangerous and 3 building in the middle of capital with even less chanses to be anything related to storage of CW.

[LoooSeR]

4 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

My speculation is that 76mm missiles were fired with the notion that at least half would be intercepted because there was a SAM base VERY close to Barzah. 

MoD claims 7 out of 30

[LoooSeR]

 

On other note - some Syrians are making photos with remains of AA missiles busters, lol

[LoooSeR]

Rastan is getting proper attention from SAA

 

[LoooSeR]

Peto prepared a map for possible operation in Yarmouk camp, SAA/NDF forces were detected to be building up around it (i think i posted photos in this thread).

[LoooSeR]

Stolen from Andrey's blog - CNN went to Syria

 

Syrian Chemical weapons confirmed

[LoooSeR]

 

Quote

Nizhniy Novgorod based Arzamas Machinery Plant manufactured BTR80 is equipped with Pelena 6B jammer designed against radio controlled IEDs. 8x8 wheel amphibious armoured personnel carrier was carried above the deck of Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet’s LST Orsk en route to #Tartus

[Donward]

34 minutes ago, LoooSeR said:

Stolen from Andrey's blog - CNN went to Syria

 

Syrian Chemical weapons confirmed

 

#STANKNEWS

[LoooSeR]

https://www.spb.kp.ru/daily/26819.5/3856087/

Video:

https://kp-platform.cdnvideo.ru/kp/mp4/54/647378_1523834204.mp4

Quote

Military Correspondent of the "KP" Alexander Kots on the ruins of the Research Institute for the Development of the Pharmaceutical and Chemical Industry Barze in Damascus met with staff

 

Quote

"The theory was taught here," Jarub Haddur shows in a remotely reminiscent cabinet of concrete trash with a collapsed staircase. "- Here were taught natural sciences. Nearby - the laboratory for scientific experiments. Here was the training equipment. No poisonous substances were developed here, simply there was no necessary equipment for this."

 

Quote

- What did you teach?

- Information technology. Everything that is connected with computers, hardware, software, basic network technologies, advanced. Courses on working with operating systems ... That's exactly where our audiences were ... - the teacher thinks a little. "But we will rebuild everything anew, every brick destroyed by the Americans, we will restore."

   Logic attacks on this object is difficult to understand. The Institute is located in a dense urban area. And if some poisonous substances were actually produced in this scientific research institute, the Americans were very much in danger of organizing a local chemical catastrophe in one of the districts of the Syrian capital. And, perhaps, they must be very confident that there are no weapons of mass destruction in this scientific research institute, so that without the slightest fear they leveled it to the ground.

 

[LoooSeR]

   152 mm D-20 in Douma. As you see they fired it from inside of this building (black marks are covering upper part of the room walls and pillars). Room acted as some sort of giant suppressor.