Syrian conflict.

[LoooSeR]

https://vk.com/video-107187851_456240177

Rare video.

Quote

   Presumably the servicemen of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) of the Russian Armed Forces during the evacuation of body after the attack of the ISIS militants on the positions of Russian / Syrian forces.

   "Syria, 2015. Video from the camera on the helmet, no matter what happened, never leave a friend in the hands of the enemy."

 

[Mighty_Zuk]

Finally this whole thing comes to an end:

 

Russia accepts Israel's version on the downed jet.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-russia-accepts-our-take-on-syrian-downing-of-plane-coordination-goes-on/

 

The key points in Israel's version are that the SAA has fired indiscriminately and practically maniacally for almost an hour, with the first missile only being launched about a minute before the final Israeli bomb landed.

The Russian plane was downed long after IAF planes were already back home.

And the IAF gave a warning of "well over a minute" but do not specify how long, simply implying they gave a standard warning.

 

This whole thing can potentially be a very embarrassing for Russian AD units, so I'm guessing a thorough investigation is underway.

 

[LoooSeR]

   Claimed videos that were prepared for "chemical attack" in Idlib, with White Helmets saving vistims of gas attack by shower. Several scenarios were done, part of them in this video:

Idlibollywood at work.

[LoooSeR]

Rosgvardia personal in Syria

 

Probably SSO observing area, claimed that this obs. system is called Ironiya (Irony)

[Mighty_Zuk]

Russia has now proceeded to the 5th version, according to which Israel is to fully blame for the attack:

 

https://sputniknews.com/world/201809231068261218-russia-israel-il20/

 

This is, however, only the 3rd version thag blames Israel, out of 5, therefore statistically Israel is only 60% to blame for the incident.

This is sufficient to say it carries most of the blame.

Syria statistically carries 20% of the blame, and so does France.

[LoooSeR]

53 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Russia has now proceeded to the 5th version, according to which Israel is to fully blame for the attack:

 

https://sputniknews.com/world/201809231068261218-russia-israel-il20/

 

This is, however, only the 3rd version thag blames Israel, out of 5, therefore statistically Israel is only 60% to blame for the incident.

This is sufficient to say it carries most of the blame.

Syria statistically carries 20% of the blame, and so does France.

WTF is this crap with percentages? This is not 5th version.

 

On 9/22/2018 at 4:13 AM, Mighty_Zuk said:

Finally this whole thing comes to an end:

 

Russia accepts Israel's version on the downed jet.

....

   Those claims of Russia accepting Israeli version are bullshit. Fresh MoD briefing posted today specifically note that Israeli actions were going against agreements done in 2015. MoD blaims Israel for "unprofessional or even negligent" actions. Bombing was done near a corridor which military and civilians plains use to land in Hmeymim. 

   MoD also notes that they have easier time with US plains than with Israeli actions, that created several times potential danger to our personal, but even in those situation MoD didn't used AA capabilities against Israeli jets. Than MoD speaks about coordination of Israel->Russia->Iran about pro-Iranian army and heavy weapons, plus about "sensetive" weapons and described actions of IAF as "extremely ungrateful". 

 

 

 

 

[LoooSeR]

BTW MoD claims that it conducted a special operation to find an Israeli soldier body/remains in Syria. No futher info on this.

 

 

[LoooSeR]

FSB member with Syrian flag, during training.

[Mighty_Zuk]

22 minutes ago, LoooSeR said:

WTF is this crap with percentages? This is not 5th version.

 

   Those claims of Russia accepting Israeli version are bullshit. Fresh MoD briefing posted today specifically note that Israeli actions were going against agreements done in 2015. MoD blaims Israel for "unprofessional or even negligent" actions. Bombing was done near a corridor which military and civilians plains use to land in Hmeymim. 

   MoD also notes that they have easier time with US plains than with Israeli actions, that created several times potential danger to our personal, but even in those situation MoD didn't used AA capabilities against Israeli jets. Than MoD speaks about coordination of Israel->Russia->Iran about pro-Iranian army and heavy weapons, plus about "sensetive" weapons and described actions of IAF as "extremely ungrateful". 

 

This is a far more politically motivated show than a practical one. And as always, there are far more holes in each Russian official version than there are not.

 

Let's talk about all the claims:

 

1) No warning given - The Israeli delegation presented its own report, and Russian MoD has yet to comment on that data.

 

2) F-16 used the IL-20 as cover - Russia's inability to pinpoint the location of the F-16 (only by 3rd version they claimed F-16 were in the area), shows their claims of some 'typical' use of aircraft as cover, is hardly based on facts, and again there are no comments on Israel's report that shows the F-16 were hundreds of kilometers away by then.

 

3) Israel only warned 25 times and always on short notice - With well over 200 attacks inside Syria, Russia is basically claiming that Israel only very rarely notified ahead of attacks, which would be very inconsistent with their past claims that the deconfliction and cooperation line is working very well.

 

4) Russia is a benevolent regional ruler while Israel is ungrateful for Russia saving Israel from harm - The recent, and likely still continuing supply of advanced arms to Hezbollah, the continued relations with Hamas, and practically sponsoring of Iran and all its proxies, shows that in the eyes of Israel and western countries, Russia is still far more of a hostile country than a friendly one.

All that even though clearly Russia needs this cooperation agreement far more than Israel does. That is because Russia cannot take any military action against Israeli interests in the region, without sparking a war between nuclear powers. But Israel, on the other hand, can retaliate militarily for these accusations and provocation in a manner that would not justify a Russian retaliation, but would inflict severe harm to Russian interests. Basically Israel has leverage.

 

5) Russia has created a 140km Iran-free zone from Israel's border with Syria - Also infactual, as there are Iranian assets as close as 40km from the border. This one is partially true at best.

 

6) Russia conducted search ops for Israeli people's remains - The area at hand was held by ISIS, and upon capturing was immediately transferred to the SAA. This is the only one that is true.

 

Seems like the whole "Israel is entirely to blame" charade is to deflect from the fact that Russian forces screwed up big time and don't want any political backlash against that.

They failed to install proper IFF on the IL-20M, failed to notify the Syrians of the IL-20's path, failed to properly observe non-stealth planes coming from hundreds of kilometers away with combat load and in a predictable path, failed to notify the Il-20's crew even though they had both a verbal warning and radar warning a long time ahead.

They also failed to call off the hour-long indiscriminate fire that miraculously didn't hit anything else (missiles were basically fired in every direction).

They failed to inform SAA air defense operators (they have 'advised since 2015) of standard AD drills.

And of course the very frequent change of versions even days after the incident, alert us of massive failures from anywhere between the air control and AD operators in Syria, and the Ministry of Defense, as a simple incident has managed to create a great confusion among the highest ranks for a protracted period of time, which means they are ill prepared for any serious events, especially active wars, without going into terrible miscalculations.

 

Of course, it does seem odd right now that the Russian MoD is seeking to sever ties with Israel, while Putin and his administration are doing the contrary, trying to preserve the mutual ties.

 

Judging by the rhetoric, the MoD may have wanted to sever ties for a long time and has looked for opportunities to do that, and an opportunity just popped up.

 

[LoooSeR]

1 hour ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

....

Let's talk about all the claims:

1) No warning given - The Israeli delegation presented its own report, and Russian MoD has yet to comment on that data.

It is given it's data

 

1 hour ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

2) F-16 used the IL-20 as cover - Russia's inability to pinpoint the location of the F-16 (only by 3rd version they claimed F-16 were in the area), shows their claims of some 'typical' use of aircraft as cover, is hardly based on facts, and again there are no comments on Israel's report that shows the F-16 were hundreds of kilometers away by then.

MoD claims "unprofessional or even negligent" actions of IAF are reason.

 

1 hour ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

 

3) Israel only warned 25 times and always on short notice - With well over 200 attacks inside Syria, Russia is basically claiming that Israel only very rarely notified ahead of attacks, which would be very inconsistent with their past claims that the deconfliction and cooperation line is working very well.

 

It also could mean that Israel was bombing targets near Russian-operated areas 25 times

 

1 hour ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

 

4) Russia is a benevolent regional ruler while Israel is ungrateful for Russia saving Israel from harm - The recent, and likely still continuing supply of advanced arms to Hezbollah, the continued relations with Hamas, and practically sponsoring of Iran and all its proxies, shows that in the eyes of Israel and western countries, Russia is still far more of a hostile country than a friendly one.

All that even though clearly Russia needs this cooperation agreement far more than Israel does. That is because Russia cannot take any military action against Israeli interests in the region, without sparking a war between nuclear powers. But Israel, on the other hand, can retaliate militarily for these accusations and provocation in a manner that would not justify a Russian retaliation, but would inflict severe harm to Russian interests. Basically Israel has leverage.

 

It wasn't saying that Russia is a ruler of this region, they were speaking about cooperation between Russia and Israel before this event. 

 

   WTF is this "and practically sponsoring of Iran and all its proxies" even mean? When Russia sponsored any Iranian proxy or Hezbollah?

   Russia doesn't need cooperation with Israel, because we have nothing to gain from Israel.

   A ticket to bomb our ally for free isn't enough? Maybe we should start killing Syrians ourselves, instead of IAF? Maybe we should start to bomb Iranian proxy and fight them with our ground forces? This "hostile country" done more for Israeli interests in region than for Iranians. IAF payment was bombing 17 km near our AB, creating dangerous conditions for our troops (and not for the first time, on number of occasions this happened).

 

   Russia can counter Israel interests in Syria, if political leadership wanted that.

 

1 hour ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

 

5) Russia has created a 140km Iran-free zone from Israel's border with Syria - Also infactual, as there are Iranian assets as close as 40km from the border. This one is partially true at best.

 

 

...and that is more than Israel done for us in this region.

 

1 hour ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

 

Seems like the whole "Israel is entirely to blame" charade is to deflect from the fact that Russian forces screwed up big time and don't want any political backlash against that.

They failed to install proper IFF on the IL-20M, failed to notify the Syrians of the IL-20's path, failed to properly observe non-stealth planes coming from hundreds of kilometers away with combat load and in a predictable path, failed to notify the Il-20's crew even though they had both a verbal warning and radar warning a long time ahead.

They also failed to call off the hour-long indiscriminate fire that miraculously didn't hit anything else (missiles were basically fired in every direction).

They failed to inform SAA air defense operators (they have 'advised since 2015) of standard AD drills.

And of course the very frequent change of versions even days after the incident, alert us of massive failures from anywhere between the air control and AD operators in Syria, and the Ministry of Defense, as a simple incident has managed to create a great confusion among the highest ranks for a protracted period of time, which means they are ill prepared for any serious events, especially active wars, without going into terrible miscalculations.

 

Of course, it does seem odd right now that the Russian MoD is seeking to sever ties with Israel, while Putin and his administration are doing the contrary, trying to preserve the mutual ties.

 

Judging by the rhetoric, the MoD may have wanted to sever ties for a long time and has looked for opportunities to do that, and an opportunity just popped up.

 

   This is pile of dumbest shit i saw for a while.

   We wouldn't even speak about this event if Israel did not bomb anything near our AB in the first place. Initiator of event was Israel, not Syrian AD, which were responding to situation created by IAF.

 

   AA forces would had a realistical chance to shot down IL-20M even with IFF, there is number of such situation because of specifics of AA work. For example in 2003 war in Iraq Coaltion forces in 1.5 week managed to shot down British Tornado and F/A-18C with Patriot systems, while Iraqi AF didn't even bothered to come to this war. Syrians would have more chances to awoid fuck ups with something better than ancient S-200s, but S-300 transfer to SAA was canceled by Israel request. Conducting strikes from generally same area as IL was coming to Hmeymim was not going to improve those chances anyway, especially with EW enviroment.

 

   And stop this telepathic crap with "Russian MoD is seeking to sever ties with Israel, while Putin and his administration are doing the contrary". Nobody fucking knows what generals in MoD thinks and wants. Putin gives order as Commander-in-Chief and MoD is doing them, results are seen in Ukraine.

 

[LoooSeR]

Quote

Shoigu: "The Syrian armed forces will receive a modern S-300 anti-aircraft missile system within two weeks. It is capable of intercepting air attack means at ranges of more than 250 km and hitting several air targets at the same time."

WIll not help much without proper AD radar coverage system. Although it is a right step towards creating a some sort of order in Syrian skies.

[Mighty_Zuk]

13 hours ago, LoooSeR said:

   WTF is this "and practically sponsoring of Iran and all its proxies" even mean? When Russia sponsored any Iranian proxy or Hezbollah?

Russia's sponsoring of Iran is basically sponsoring of Iran's military branches, which include Hezbollah and PIJ.

 

Quote

   Russia doesn't need cooperation with Israel, because we have nothing to gain from Israel.

Really? Not even free reign in Syria and 

 

Quote

   Russia can counter Israel interests in Syria, if political leadership wanted that.

I don't really see how. Israel can assassinate Assad while taking only a political backlash. Russia cannot really retaliate militarily in any way. Only covert or political measures that will be of lower magnitude than the damage inflicted by Assad's removal.

 

Quote

A ticket to bomb our ally for free isn't enough? Maybe we should start killing Syrians ourselves, instead of IAF? Maybe we should start to bomb Iranian proxy and fight them with our ground forces? This "hostile country" done more for Israeli interests in region than for Iranians. IAF payment was bombing 17 km near our AB, creating dangerous conditions for our troops (and not for the first time, on number of occasions this happened).

   This is pile of dumbest shit i saw for a while.

   We wouldn't even speak about this event if Israel did not bomb anything near our AB in the first place. Initiator of event was Israel, not Syrian AD, which were responding to situation created by IAF.

Then maybe next time Russia can monitor the area and prevent Iranian troops from entrenching very close to Russian forces. Part of the agreement is that Russia will not interfere in Israel's ongoing conflict with Iran, other than as a mediator perhaps.

Russia claims Israel used the Il-20 as a shield in at least 2 of their versions (who knows what they may claim in the next one), but they say nothing about Iran using Russian bases and troops as shields.

 

Quote

   AA forces would had a realistical chance to shot down IL-20M even with IFF, there is number of such situation because of specifics of AA work. For example in 2003 war in Iraq Coaltion forces in 1.5 week managed to shot down British Tornado and F/A-18C with Patriot systems, while Iraqi AF didn't even bothered to come to this war.

And yet they didn't blame the Iraqis for downing their planes, have they?

 

Quote

Syrians would have more chances to avoid fuck ups with something better than ancient S-200s, but S-300 transfer to SAA was canceled by Israel request. Conducting strikes from generally same area as IL was coming to Hmeymim was not going to improve those chances anyway, especially with EW enviroment.

What does it matter if they continue literally firing the S-200 in every direction, on ballistic trajectories, hoping the radar would pick up at least some targets along the way? 

They fired like a bunch of retards and it now cost them a Russian plane. 

 

Quote

   And stop this telepathic crap with "Russian MoD is seeking to sever ties with Israel, while Putin and his administration are doing the contrary". Nobody fucking knows what generals in MoD thinks and wants. Putin gives order as Commander-in-Chief and MoD is doing them, results are seen in Ukraine.

 

Except it's no longer the case. Putin said Israel is not to blame for the incident, while the Russian MoD said that Israel is the only one to blame (even though there were at least a dozen stupid mistakes made by the Russian and Syrian forces alike in that incident).

 

13 minutes ago, LoooSeR said:

WIll not help much without proper AD radar coverage system. Although it is a right step towards creating a some sort of order in Syrian skies.

It will also definitely not prevent such incidents from occurring in the future, unless the VKS start putting IFF equipment on their planes, for the Syrians to see.

It may indeed put some order, and allow Syria to observe its skies better, preventing accidents by eliminating other errors from the chain, but it could also be a marketing nightmare if Israel targets this system. 

You forgot this part though:

Quote

The Russian defense ministry said Monday that President Vladimir Putin will outfit the Syrian military with its sophisticated S-300 air defense system and jam radars of military planes striking from off the coast of the Mediterranean, in the wake of the downing of a Russian spy plane by Syrian air defenses during an Israeli strike last week.

This is putting Russia straight on a collision path with Israel.

 

[Bronezhilet]

Sturgeons House Civil War 2.0; the blamening

[LoooSeR]

50 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Russia's sponsoring of Iran is basically sponsoring of Iran's military branches, which include Hezbollah and PIJ.

 

??? What. The. Hell.

   How are we sponsoring them? Are we... paying money to them or something? Or we supplied Al-Mukowama with... i don't know... T-90s, Tochkas with nukes, advanced Spetsnaz backflips and throwing knifes? Al-Mukowama in Ushankas when?

 

50 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

...

Really? Not even free reign in Syria and 

...

   Ummm.. Syria have it's own rulers and they are not our vassals. Or Syrians must ask Israel to allow them to sell their autonomy\freedom to anobody?

 

50 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

 

I don't really see how. Israel can assassinate Assad while taking only a political backlash. Russia cannot really retaliate militarily in any way. Only covert or political measures that will be of lower magnitude than the damage inflicted by Assad's removal.

 

So, if we rule Syria, how exactly death of a governor Bashar is going to hurt Russia and russian people? 

 

   Russia cannot retaliate? What kind of parallel world do you exist, did you noticed any conflicts in past 10 years near Russia? The only thing that will stop any possible confrontation between Russian forces and Israel are politicians views and their ideology.

 

50 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

 

Then maybe next time Russia can monitor the area and prevent Iranian troops from entrenching very close to Russian forces. Part of the agreement is that Russia will not interfere in Israel's ongoing conflict with Iran, other than as a mediator perhaps.

Russia claims Israel used the Il-20 as a shield in at least 2 of their versions (who knows what they may claim in the next one), but they say nothing about Iran using Russian bases and troops as shields.

 

   I posted a video from one of those "iranian" targets near Lattakia. Vast majority of targets (almost all of them with exception of T4 AB) were not Iranians, but Syrian. Remember when Russian UAV was shot down by Israel and then used Spike NLOS missiles against Syrians not long time ago? This is sort of crap Israel is doing. Change "Russian UAV" for "Hezbollah" and "Iran", and bomb random things, like ammunition for SAA. Iranian help for Hezbollah is primarily money. 

   Nobody stops IDF/IAF from conducting their own press conference with any sorts of data shown, other than empty claims in newspapers.

 

50 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

 

And yet they didn't blame the Iraqis for downing their planes, have they?

 

   Ummm. what? I was speaking about specifics of AA work that even high tech forces like US can fuck up and shot down their own jets with IFF and fighters of their ally (British Tornado), even in situation of no enemies in the air. IIRC in both cases Patriot missiles crews were found to be not guilty. Now imagine less technologically advances systems used by less capable army in situation of active airstrikes in EW enviroment.

 

50 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

What does it matter if they continue literally firing the S-200 in every direction, on ballistic trajectories, hoping the radar would pick up at least some targets along the way? 

They fired like a bunch of retards and it now cost them a Russian plane. 

   1) Any evidence that Syrians were "firing the S-200 in every direction...hoping the radar would pick up at least some targets along the way"? Or more of telepathic abilities?

   2) So if they were bunch of retards and Israel/US always claims that they are (of course, they are second grade humans apperently), why would then IAF conduct strikes near our Air force base, knowing that it is surrounded by retards with AA missiles that fire in every direction randomly? Maybe because they A. didn't thought that they were retards or B. didn't cared for results and risks?

   IAF started this whole situation, being initiators.

 

50 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

 

Except it's no longer the case. Putin said Israel is not to blame for the incident, while the Russian MoD said that Israel is the only one to blame (even though there were at least a dozen stupid mistakes made by the Russian and Syrian forces alike in that incident).

 

Ummm... 

   "Russian President Vladimir Putin in a telephone conversation informed Syrian President Bashar Assad about the Russian Federation's response to the Il-20 crash. This was reported by the press service of the Kremlin.

In particular, Putin reported on the decision to transfer Syria anti-aircraft missile system S-300."

   Let's assume that he didn't blamed Israel, but in reality authorized S-300s for Syria. Actions speeks louder then diplomatic words.

 

50 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

It will also definitely not prevent such incidents from occurring in the future, unless the VKS start putting IFF equipment on their planes, for the Syrians to see.

It may indeed put some order, and allow Syria to observe its skies better, preventing accidents by eliminating other errors from the chain, but it could also be a marketing nightmare if Israel targets this system. 

S-400 is hot seller today. 

[LoooSeR]

Shows data from S-400 system radars from Hmeymim. 

 

   Green dot is IL-20M (green dots are for planes verified by IFF "Parol"), yellow dots with numbers 149, 125, 130, 045 are IAF F-16s (numbers assigned by system automatically to F-16s and 158B is S-200 missile).

   S-200 missile was flying at higher altitude than both F-16 and IL-20M (ballistic trajectory). S-200 was flying towards F-16, but because of better radar visibility S-200 missile picked IL-20M.

[LoooSeR]

Rosgvardia personal in Syria from Chechnya

 

Spoiler

 

 

Unknown SF unit of MoD, claimed to be photos made during searching for remains of Israeli soldier/military personal

 

Spoiler

 

[LoooSeR]

Quote

Meet Sergey & Igor. They will get Syrian citizenship on Thursday!

[Mighty_Zuk]

6 hours ago, LoooSeR said:

Shows data from S-400 system radars from Hmeymim. 

 

   Green dot is IL-20M (green dots are for planes verified by IFF "Parol"), yellow dots with numbers 149, 125, 130, 045 are IAF F-16s (numbers assigned by system automatically to F-16s and 158B is S-200 missile).

   S-200 missile was flying at higher altitude than both F-16 and IL-20M (ballistic trajectory). S-200 was flying towards F-16, but because of better radar visibility S-200 missile picked IL-20M.

You do realize that all the did was:

 

1) Debunk their previous and very similar presentation, in full, meaning they could release yet another similar presentation that debunks the current one.

 

2) Even further lose credibility, as even they must be aware that these press releases are seen by more than just the Russian public.

[LoooSeR]

SSO specialists

 

Spoiler

 

[LoooSeR]

As-Safa plato

Quote

Scenes from the operations of the Syrian army in the depth of the desert south-east Damascus countryside

Operation slowed down because AFVs can't be used on such terrain. Claims that leftovers of ISIS are cut from source of drinking water.

[Mighty_Zuk]

Also, @LoooSeR I forgot to mention. 

Hezbollah's name is Hezbollah. Not "Al Muqawama". 

Muqawama literally means "resistance", which may refer to any terrorist group that sees itself as a resistor to something, thus when you say "Muqawama" you can refer to practically any group that internally uses that name for itself, like Hamas, PIJ, or Fatah, or any of the Syrian terrorist groups for that matter, such as the FSA.

[LoooSeR]

8 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Also, @LoooSeR I forgot to mention. 

Hezbollah's name is Hezbollah. Not "Al Muqawama". 

Muqawama literally means "resistance", which may refer to any terrorist group that sees itself as a resistor to something, thus when you say "Muqawama" you can refer to practically any group that internally uses that name for itself, like Hamas, PIJ, or Fatah, or any of the Syrian terrorist groups for that matter, such as the FSA.

   Hezbollah is a political party, Al-Mukowama Islamia is what people refer as "military wing of Hezbollah". This organisation is semi-separate from political party and it is called Islamic Resistance of Lebanon. 

[LoooSeR]

More of Rosgvardia in Syria

 

Spoiler

 

Terek member

 

other SFs

 

 

[LoooSeR]

Fully loaded Ka-52

[LoooSeR]

As-Safa operation slowly continues