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Developing Situation in Moldova

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Our good friends and Kremlin-controlled propaganda instruments independent journalists at Southfront have just produced a video about the developing situation in Moldova:

 

Moldova is caught in the ongoing power struggle between Russia and the US-led West for control of the former Warsaw Pact.  The US took major strides in expanding its influence with the 1997 addition of the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary to NATO, followed seven years later by Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Slovakia and Bulgaria.  The expansion of NATO Eastward was particularly alarming to Russian leadership, and they claim violated an informal agreement they had with the United States that NATO would not expand.

 

In the case of Czechoslovakia and Hungary, dissatisfaction with Russia was longstanding, and some Westward gravitation of certain former Warsaw Pact states was inevitable.  The situation in Moldova is more complicated, however, where there is a pro-EU government nominally in control of the government, but a breakway region called Transnistria on the Ukrainian border that prefers closer ties with Russia:

 

 

(I will give Tied a moment or two to wipe away his tears of joy and nostalgia)

 

The situation in Transnistria is complicated by the civil war in Ukraine.  Security in Transnistria is overseen by a joint force of Transnistrian, Russian and Moldovan forces.  But Russia is on the other side of Ukraine from Moldova, and Ukraine has disallowed the transit of Russian peacekeeping forces to and from Transnistria.  Additionally, the unclear legal status and porous border between Transnistria and Ukraine has made it an attractive base for gunrunners supplying weapons to the Ukrainian civil war.

 

In the rest of Moldova things have not been going swimmingly either.  A gigantic fraud and money laundering scheme has siphoned at least $2 billion from the Moldovan economy over the last ten years, which is enormous in a country with a GDP of less than $8 billion:



Other forms of corruption are rampant, and the economy remains extremely backward compared to the rest of Europe.  The GDP per capita of Moldova is less than half that of Albania's, for instance, and everyone knows how horrible and backwards Albania is.  It is easy to see why there would be widespread discontent.

 

The European Parliament has demanded that Russia cease its involvement in the growing Moldovan crisis, although exactly how this is supposed to work vis a vis Transnistria and what the hell they think they're going to do when the Russians do not listen is unclear.  The Russian government is following the situation, but it is unclear at this time what their response will be.

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BBC has a piece on the situation.

 

A couple of interesting points:

 

-The current government is opposed by both pro-Russia and pro-EU groups, who have (temporarily) allied.

-The Moldovan economy is extremely weak, and very dependent on the economy of Russia.  The recent downturn of the Russian economy has catalyzed troubles in Moldova.

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So basically Slavs are like the Irish but with worse music and clinical depression?

 

who in God's dick are you calling shit music having Joe Yankee

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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"We will chase the fascists into the grave" the song sings, as a man stares longingly at an ICBM. That's some interesting alternate history you got going on here, Tied.

 

Also as hilarious as defending Moscow with ICBMs is the amphibious landing scene. Take a real good look at a map and tell me where you're supposed to amphibiously land in Moscow's defense, song guy.

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"We will chase the fascists into the grave" the song sings, as a man stares longingly at an ICBM. That's some interesting alternate history you got going on here, Tied.

 

Also as hilarious as defending Moscow with ICBMs is the amphibious landing scene. Take a real good look at a map and tell me where you're supposed to amphibiously land in Moscow's defense, song guy.

 

 

"We knew the Fascists were up to something when they started digging a canal to Moscow."

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Much ado about nothing, this is what is happening in Moldova. All parties are interested now in an appeasement.  Both sides politicians (pro-Russian, pro-EU) are thieves and known offenders and it's difficult to find somebody with whom you can have a dialogue knowing he/she have some sort of legitimacy.

 

Actually Russia is not in a good position to help Transnistria now with a hostile Ukraine in between so little interest for an escalation of the situation there. Will just try to induce insecurity feeling to Slav ethnics to keep a freezing conflict. 

 

Moldovans are in total confusion of identity for over 25 years. They have a long history with the other half of Moldova (In medieval principality of Moldova), 100 years of pure Russian rule and force Russification, a brief history with Romania in interwar and truth to be told Basarabia (as we call it) did not get the best treatment from Romanian modern stat and than another time with the Soviet empire (with same forced Russification, families who lived in Romania forbidden to even meet and so on).

 

Then, after the collapse of USSR, followed  for Moldova a 25 years of total collapse, misery and empty promises from all sides, local patriotism breathed on "Moldovan identity", which brought them finally to the bottom of this pit that is now.

 

There is a lot of talk here about an eventual Union with Romania and for a reason that I don't understand it seems that Russia don't like this possibility, although it's the same people and Russian rule over Moldova was obviously an arbitrary act between Ottomans and Russian Empire with which Principality of Moldova (as constituent part of Romanian modern state) never agreed. This union will happen at some point and will come naturally. Younger generation that will want the union it only has now no more than 30 years, and therefore still can not count very much on time politically but obviously its influence increases every year. When this generation will feel natural and normal gesture to reunite with Romania than this it will come about peacefully and with complete peace of conscience for everyone.

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Moldovan press reports that Tiraspol airport was prepared for military operations of Russian army; I couldn't find a good source in English but it is easily readable with google translate from Romanian:

 

http://www.timpul.md/articol/(doc)-operaiunea-tuman-pregatita-de-putin-in-moldova-la-tiraspol-a-fost-construit-un-orael-militar-care-include-i-un-aerodrom-special-87579.html

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Moldovan press reports that Tiraspol airport was prepared for military operations of Russian army; I couldn't find a good source in English but it is easily readable with google translate from Romanian:

 

http://www.timpul.md/articol/(doc)-operaiunea-tuman-pregatita-de-putin-in-moldova-la-tiraspol-a-fost-construit-un-orael-militar-care-include-i-un-aerodrom-special-87579.html

 

"Airport" seems too kind a word for it.

 

2011:

 

2014:

http://gstdh.gospmr.org/news.php?extend.772.1

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I think is good enough for transport planes ;)

 

Well, things are getting quiet lately. Legend promoted at Chisinau about Bucharest says that Moldovan citizens united against an oligarchic regime (criminal, mafia, corrupt, etc.) which is the puppet of Plahotniuc, a billionaire who (for obscure reasons) is backed by Romania, the European Union and the US.

 
Naturally, you can only sympathize with  the demands of the people against corrupt oligarchs as Moldova is a country torn by corruption. It has a tiny rich class, and enormously many people who live like in an medieval  autarchy, way under poverty standards. The administration is on the verge of a resounding collapse and the economy is preparing for bankruptcy - Moldova has very little and returns to level 1999 when if you were working at the stewed fruits plant you received wages in plant's products.
 
And than is the legend of the stolen billion: From Chisinau was stolen a billion dollars from banks. Let me tell you a little secret, all politicians stole from all political parties (only about the Liberal Party has not appeared in the press evidence that anyone was involved in stealing from the billion). Many things are unclear in the story of one billion, but the fact is that was stolen and robbery was devastating for Moldova. Within weeks, the European Union's wonder student became a mess region, close to the disaster in Ukraine.
 
What's is left from pro-European parties in Chisinau tried to make a functioning government (in a year fell two governments) and return to the agenda of the European Union approach. Kind of resembles with what happened in Ukraine. They wanted to sign an association agreement with the EU,  then their political leaders were warned that is not good, people out in the streets, government fall and suddenly two  breakaway republics appeared in eastern Ukraine and started a civil war. Same in Moldova, just that is a little bit different. Breakaway republics (Gagauzia, Transnistria) and civil war were made in 1991, not  to unite with Romania. Now the protests are to break ground for corrupt government and to cancel the association agreement with the EU.
 
And the thing is complicated, because the political system which supports rapprochement to the EU is deeply corrupt - yet  the ones who want to take them down are from the same stock. I looked at the leaders of the protests and did a little research on the net about their biography. Dignity and Truth Platform (PDA) is a separate entity but only a part of the protests, which actually acts like a cover or a blinding device for these events. PDA is an association of people from the second line of political structures extinct or still active. PDA is pro-European agenda - but PDA was the last two days of protests engulfed by leading pro-Russian Igor Dodon and Renato Usatîi and risk losing identity.
 
Chisinau protests are not pro-European. It is the beginning of a counter-maidan where legitimate rebellion against a corrupt government diverted in favor of structures supporting Moldovan identity separate from Romanian identity and intends to restore Moldova's economic and political orbit of the Russian Federation. One can imagine any scenario, but the protests are now led by leaders whose agenda includes removing Moldova EU orbit. The rest are details of conjecture.

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I observe the same misinformation was published in Russia and Romania as well, without looking into what actually happened. Basically all started from a decree signed by Sevchuk ("president" of Transnistria) to put into force a  referendum of 2006 when citizens of Transnistria voted for independence and subsequent entry into the Russian Federation. Few points to consider:

 

- the decree speaks about alignment of Transnistria to Russian Federation legislation, nothing more.

- it is supposed to keep busy the Transnistrian "parliament" which is hostile to Sevchuk.

- decree actually undermines the efforts of Russian diplomacy to simulate good faith in negotiations with German diplomats which were anyway prone to believe Russian good will.

- Russians may accept Transnistria joining when they want, not when Sevchuk want; so far there isn't any official Russian comment about this event (or I didn't find it yet). 

- this move is hurting first Igor Dodon in full electoral campaign as he's the main supporter of federalization of Moldova. 

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