Jump to content
Please support this forum by joining the SH Patreon ×
Sturgeon's House

Post Election Thread: Democracy Dies In Darkness And You Can Help


T___A

Recommended Posts

Quite shady

 

Quote

Trump lawyer Michael Cohen's office raided by FBI

The FBI has raided the offices of Michael Cohen, the long-time personal lawyer for US President Donald Trump.

Law enforcement acted on a "referral" from Special Counsel Robert Mueller, who is investigating suspected Russian meddling in the 2016 election.

Officials in New York seized "privileged communications" between Mr Cohen and his clients, his lawyer said in a statement after the raid.

Documents regarding a payment to a porn actress were also seized, US media say.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43706709

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, Donward said:

Hey South Carolina Republicans. I know you want to act hard like you're the baddest protectors of the Second Amendment around. How about doing something useful like electing someone other than Lindsay Graham as a US Senator?

 

Lindsey Graham gets an"A" rating from the NRA.  That's not good enough?

 

Oddly enough, grades from the NRA and Gun Owners of America vary quite a bit.  I have no idea what the difference between the groups is as far as how they do their rating.  Stats here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15QWt-G5DZFUd7DS9iTiPotBmkxm9qqJsCA1qWjYFcaU/edit#gid=0

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is something fun from a right-wing blog.  Supposedly, this is from a Republican congressman who supports Trump in public but is rather frustrated with him.  It's rather entertaining.

 

"It's like Forrest Gump won the presidency, but an evil, really f*cking stupid Forrest Gump. He can't help himself. He's just a f**king idiot who thinks he's winning when people are b*tching about him. He really does see the world as ratings and attention. I hate Forrest Gump. I listen to your podcast and heard you hate it too. What an overrated piece of sh*t movie. Can you believe it beat the Shawshank Redemption?"

 

and...

 

"I say a lot of shit on TV defending him, even over this. But honestly, I wish the motherf*cker would just go away. We're going to lose the House, lose the Senate, and lose a bunch of states because of him. All his supporters will blame us for what we have or have not done, but he hasn't led. He wakes up in the morning, sh*ts all over Twitter, sh*ts all over us, sh*ts all over his staff, then hits golf balls. F*ck him. Of course, I can't say that in public or I'd get run out of town."

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Walter_Sobchak said:

Here is something fun from a right-wing blog.  Supposedly, this is from a Republican congressman who supports Trump in public but is rather frustrated with him.  It's rather entertaining.

 

"It's like Forrest Gump won the presidency, but an evil, really f*cking stupid Forrest Gump. He can't help himself. He's just a f**king idiot who thinks he's winning when people are b*tching about him. He really does see the world as ratings and attention. I hate Forrest Gump. I listen to your podcast and heard you hate it too. What an overrated piece of sh*t movie. Can you believe it beat the Shawshank Redemption?"

 

and...

 

"I say a lot of shit on TV defending him, even over this. But honestly, I wish the motherf*cker would just go away. We're going to lose the House, lose the Senate, and lose a bunch of states because of him. All his supporters will blame us for what we have or have not done, but he hasn't led. He wakes up in the morning, sh*ts all over Twitter, sh*ts all over us, sh*ts all over his staff, then hits golf balls. F*ck him. Of course, I can't say that in public or I'd get run out of town."

 

 

 

Dude, It's fucking Erick Erickson. He's a #NeverTrump tard who got shit-canned from his own blog and who endorsed Evan McMuffin for God's sake in order to "punish" Republicans for nominating Trump in the primaries. 

 

He can either name who said it or go back to spinning yarns. 

 

As someone who ALWAYS insisted on naming sources, this whole patty-cake game of anonymous gossip mongering in the Washington DC middle school cafeteria is despicable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Walter_Sobchak said:

Here is something fun from a right-wing blog.  Supposedly, this is from a Republican congressman who supports Trump in public but is rather frustrated with him.  It's rather entertaining.

 

"It's like Forrest Gump won the presidency, but an evil, really f*cking stupid Forrest Gump. He can't help himself. He's just a f**king idiot who thinks he's winning when people are b*tching about him. He really does see the world as ratings and attention. I hate Forrest Gump. I listen to your podcast and heard you hate it too. What an overrated piece of sh*t movie. Can you believe it beat the Shawshank Redemption?"

 

and...

 

"I say a lot of shit on TV defending him, even over this. But honestly, I wish the motherf*cker would just go away. We're going to lose the House, lose the Senate, and lose a bunch of states because of him. All his supporters will blame us for what we have or have not done, but he hasn't led. He wakes up in the morning, sh*ts all over Twitter, sh*ts all over us, sh*ts all over his staff, then hits golf balls. F*ck him. Of course, I can't say that in public or I'd get run out of town."

 

 

 

Holy shit that sounds like satire.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nevertrumpers also thought he would never win the election in a million years, so their predictive powers are, shall we say, not so good?

 

I think 2018 will fundamentally come down to the economy. If things are doing well, the Republicans will generally win. If they're not, they'll lose.

 

I think the Democrats are unfocused, pointed at the wrong issues, and bled dry of cash. And the economy is doing well and people are feeling it. It doesn't look very good for them. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Donward said:

 

Dude, It's fucking Erick Erickson. He's a #NeverTrump tard who got shit-canned from his own blog and who endorsed Evan McMuffin for God's sake in order to "punish" Republicans for nominating Trump in the primaries. 

 

He can either name who said it or go back to spinning yarns. 

 

As someone who ALWAYS insisted on naming sources, this whole patty-cake game of anonymous gossip mongering in the Washington DC middle school cafeteria is despicable.

 

You have to ask yourself why there are so many leaks with this administration.  Could it be that everyone who works for it is dissatisfied with the boss?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Walter_Sobchak said:

 

You have to ask yourself why there are so many leaks with this administration.  Could it be that everyone who works for it is dissatisfied with the boss?

 

If that were the case, I'd expect there to be even more and bigger leaks by now. Where is video of Trump flipping out on a subordinate? It's odd that, if we accept this image of Trump, that doesn't exist.

 

The leaks we've seen look more like entrenched bureaucrats who are unhappy he's shaking things up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Sturgeon said:

Nevertrumpers also thought he would never win the election in a million years, so their predictive powers are, shall we say, not so good?

 

I think 2018 will fundamentally come down to the economy. If things are doing well, the Republicans will generally win. If they're not, they'll lose.

 

I think the Democrats are unfocused, pointed at the wrong issues, and bled dry of cash. And the economy is doing well and people are feeling it. It doesn't look very good for them. 

 

November will not go well for the Republicans.  Elections are won by who has the most motivated base.  The problem with Trump's strategy of constant tweets is that while it works in helping him keep control of the media cycle, it also keeps him in the media cycle constantly.  And the 50% of the country that hate this guy are reminded of why they hate him every...single....day.  And they are itching to do something about it.  The mid-term election is going to be a referendum on Trump, and it is not going to be pretty for Republicans.  The Republicans are lucky in that they don't have many Senate seats up for re-election this cycle and many house seats are gerrymandered to their advantage.  Still, they are going to lose seats.  Enough for the Democrats to take Congress?  Hard to say, but while this was considered impossible a few months ago, now pollsters are starting to talk about it as a possibility.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Walter_Sobchak said:

 

November will not go well for the Republicans.  Elections are won by who has the most motivated base.  The problem with Trump's strategy of constant tweets is that while it works in helping him keep control of the media cycle, it also keeps him in the media cycle constantly.  And the 50% of the country that hate this guy are reminded of why they hate him every...single....day.  And they are itching to do something about it.  The mid-term election is going to be a referendum on Trump, and it is not going to be pretty for Republicans.  The Republicans are lucky in that they don't have many Senate seats up for re-election this cycle and many house seats are gerrymandered to their advantage.  Still, they are going to lose seats.  Enough for the Democrats to take Congress?  Hard to say, but while this was considered impossible a few months ago, now pollsters are starting to talk about it as a possibility.  

 

I guess we'll see who's right in November.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Walter_Sobchak said:

So how do you all spin Paul Ryan's decision to retire rather than subject himself to the potential embarrassment of losing reelection?  

 

That's definitely a good-faith way to ask that question. :rolleyes:


But really, fuck Paul Ryan. I don't give a shit about him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Walter_Sobchak said:

 

November will not go well for the Republicans.  Elections are won by who has the most motivated base.  The problem with Trump's strategy of constant tweets is that while it works in helping him keep control of the media cycle, it also keeps him in the media cycle constantly.  And the 50% of the country that hate this guy are reminded of why they hate him every...single....day.  And they are itching to do something about it.  The mid-term election is going to be a referendum on Trump, and it is not going to be pretty for Republicans.  The Republicans are lucky in that they don't have many Senate seats up for re-election this cycle and many house seats are gerrymandered to their advantage.  Still, they are going to lose seats.  Enough for the Democrats to take Congress?  Hard to say, but while this was considered impossible a few months ago, now pollsters are starting to talk about it as a possibility.  

 

Walter, I have a question for you... Seriously honestly here...

 

Do you really think you guys are the only people who are pissed?

 

Do you really think the gun control bullshit on the backs of people who aren't even old enough to vote and very blatantly being coached prodded and etc by people who ought to know fucking better hasn't set some white hot fires burning?

 

Your side has so grievously and egregiously over played the piss weak fucking pathetic hand you had so badly that a large portion of the country has JUST STOPPED TALKING!

 

It's not that we don't have anything to say, fucking believe that!

 

It's that a level of burning animosity has been stoked which is just shy of people saying fuck the ballot box altogether.

 

P.S. how'd them pollsters do last time Walt? 

 

Fuckin terrible? You don't say!?

 

You're correct in saying that your party has done nothing but sow the seeds of animosity, where you're incorrect is in thinking you're going to reap anything from it but the whirlwind.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Walter_Sobchak said:

 

You have to ask yourself why there are so many leaks with this administration.  Could it be that everyone who works for it is dissatisfied with the boss?

Probably because this administration isn't silencing people with death threats? 

 

I much prefer this administration to one who's whistleblowers end up killing themselves with two bullets to the back of the head, or perhaps who get mugged and stabbed to death in the streets but still have their wallets on them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, roguetechie said:

 

Walter, I have a question for you... Seriously honestly here...

 

Do you really think you guys are the only people who are pissed?

 

Do you really think the gun control bullshit on the backs of people who aren't even old enough to vote and very blatantly being coached prodded and etc by people who ought to know fucking better hasn't set some white hot fires burning?

 

Your side has so grievously and egregiously over played the piss weak fucking pathetic hand you had so badly that a large portion of the country has JUST STOPPED TALKING!

 

It's not that we don't have anything to say, fucking believe that!

 

It's that a level of burning animosity has been stoked which is just shy of people saying fuck the ballot box altogether.

 

P.S. how'd them pollsters do last time Walt? 

 

Fuckin terrible? You don't say!?

 

You're correct in saying that your party has done nothing but sow the seeds of animosity, where you're incorrect is in thinking you're going to reap anything from it but the whirlwind.

 

Yes, I understand there is a lot of anger out there and a lot of it translated into Trump votes.  It's been obvious for a long time that both parties are essentially corporate whores, that the middle class has been losing ground for decades, and that on average, most people from Gen X onward cannot expect to have the same level of prosperity as their parents had.  There is anger on social issues as well.  It doesn't help that Liberals seem to have lost the script when it comes to biological realities such as the difference between men and women. 

 

Trump was really effective at taking advantage of that anger, using his celebrity status and the fact that the well of resentment had been primed by 20 years of conservative talk radio and Fox News.  His opponent was also spectacularly bad, ran a shitty campaign and truly inspired very little of her base.  I don't think I met a single person who was excited about voting for Hillary, even though many of them did.

 

As to the mid-terms:

 

Elections are won by who turns out their base to vote, not who has the bigger base.  Will Trump voters turn out for the mid-term?  History suggests no.  The party with a sitting president almost* always loses the midterm election in their first term.  Look at Obama.  Despite the fact that Obama had about a 505 approval rating after two years, the tea party movement really galvanized the energy of conservatives unhappy with his presidency and they knocked the ever-loving shit of the Dems in that election.  It's because Dems were complacent, they had "their guy" in the White House.  For the Tea Party, the midterm was a chance at revenge, and they turned out at the polls.   

 

I think the same situation will play out in reverse this November.  Midterm election voter turnout is always much lower than in Presidential elections (usually by about 20% points), so having something to galvanize the base is essential.  And right now, Trump sure as fuck has the Democratic base motivated.  As to his own base, he is slipping.  If you look at the polls, his overall approval rating is holding steady, but his number of "strongly approves" is low.  If you look at the data, only about 24% of the population strongly approve of Trump, 20% somewhat approve, 12% somewhat disapprove and 42% strongly disapprove.  Those are not good numbers, essentially Trump has almost twice as many people that hate him as love him. The handful of special elections that have taken place so far do not bode well for Republicans.  Sure, there were some mitigating factors in some of them, such as the Republicans nominating an accused child molester in Arkansaw, but still, the trend is not positive for Republicans right now.  The other issue they face is that candidates from the fringes keep winning primaries.  Roy Moore was not an aberration.  The Tea party movement was responsible for a number of Republican candidates over the last ten years that were unelectable in a general election, and it hurt the Republican party. Remember Christine O'Donnell?

 

Right now, as I see it, the conservative movement is eating itself.  While there is always tension in any political party between the centrists and the fringes, it seems to me that this phenomenon is particularly apparent in the current right wing in the US.  The constant complaints about Cuckservatives and RINO's is not constructive to actually moving forward an agenda.  Politics is about the art of compromise (something American's used to pride themselves in, believe it or not).  When there is no room for compromise or for being able to find common cause around issues, a political party is in bad shape. Yes, there is division in the Democratic party as well.  However, Trump has given the Democratic leadership a powerful tool with which to unify their voting block when the time comes.  At the same time, he has managed to split the conservative movement, separating the traditional small government fiscal conservatives, aka, the Never Trumpers, from the rather ludicrously mis-named "basket of deplorables."

 

But anyway, I understand that everyone is angry.  We have a media system that feeds off it, amplified by the internet and social media.  The economy is shit for the average person, and activists seem more concerned with social issues such as gay rights and abortion than they do with actually helping people get access to decent jobs, medical coverage and education.  Instead, everyone is living in their own little media bubble, whether it be liberals who live off a diet of Rachel Maddow and Huffpo, or conservatives safely surrounded in a Fox News and Limbaugh cocoon ( or worse, Infowars.)  People don't talk anymore to those they don't agree with and that's a problem.  For me, I like to come here and argue with all of you about this stuff, it keeps me on my toes.  

 

As to the gun issue, I don't have any answers.  I will say this though.  To the average non-gun owner, people like Ted Nugent and Dana Loesch come off as crazed lunatics.  And that's who they think of as representing the pro-gun side.  Strictly speaking from a perspective of optics, when one side is represented in popular culture by teenage school shooting victims and the other side by Ted Nugent, that's not good news for the pro-gun side.  Again, I'm not taking a side here on the issue itself, I'm just saying the pro-gun side is in trouble if this is their media strategy.  

 

Also, the Democratic party is not "my" party.  I've always considered myself a left leaning independent.  

 

* I added the "almost" to clarify based on Sturgeons post further up the thread.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The problem with the gun issue is that the left projects harder than an Imax. When you read articles from anti-gun people who decided to go the a shooting range and see what the "fully semiautomatic assault rifle fifteen" is all about and the describe how they were imagining bodies piling up in front of them as they fired, you have to wonder what the fuck is wrong with those people. They don't trust other people with weapons because they don't trust themselves with weapons. To top it off, they consider themselves to be paragons of virtue and intellectualism, and thus if this weapon is too dangerous for them, then why in [Obama's] name would we let paint huffing, overall clad, toothless bumpkins have them?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Walter_Sobchak said:

 

 

As to the gun issue, I don't have any answers.  I will say this though.  To the average non-gun owner, people like Ted Nugent and Dana Loesch come off as crazed lunatics.  And that's who they think of as representing the pro-gun side.  Strictly speaking from a perspective of optics, when one side is represented in popular culture by teenage school shooting victims and the other side by Ted Nugent, that's not good news for the pro-gun side.  Again, I'm not taking a side here on the issue itself, I'm just saying the pro-gun side is in trouble if this is their media strategy.  

 

 

Walter is right on this. 

 

I grow frustrated with conservatives on TV and on the Internet trying to "debate" the handful of Parkland teenagers that have been pushed on stage as a political prop. Yeah, that Hogg kid has a face you want to punch. He's also a 17-year old nobody.

 

But rather than debating Bloomberg and the anti-gun PACs, etc, the NRA and idiots like Laura Ingraham, Ben Shapiro, and whatnot would rather focus autistically on the teenagers. 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Walter_Sobchak said:

To the average non-gun owner, people like Ted Nugent and Dana Loesch come off as crazed lunatics.

 

Ted Nugent comes off to everyone like a crazed lunatic, because he's a crazed lunatic.

I don't know why the NRA lets him have power, still.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Walter_Sobchak said:

Elections are won by who turns out their base to vote, not who has the bigger base.  Will Trump voters turn out for the mid-term?  History suggests no.  The party with a sitting president always loses the midterm election in their first term.

 

Past performance does not predict future results. In fact, the trend you describe was never consistent enough to even be called a trend in retrospect, and it was only remarkable in the first place because it was so unusual through most of our parents' lifetimes.

 

SmdrmEI.png

 

Look at that.

 

Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, and Carter never saw a red House OR Senate in their entire tenure. So it's really only the last five presidents who've seen this phenomenon, and with them it wasn't even consistent. Bush I never had a red House or Senate, and Reagan never had a red House. Bush II did eventually have both the House and Senate turn blue, but only in the last midterm.


I don't think what we're seeing here is a consistent flip-flop pattern. I think we're seeing the reddening of the US Congress. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...