2016 Presidential Election Thread Archive

[Donward]

It is frightening how many members of the media and members of government who are too fucking stupid to understand that Trump was being sarcastic about Clinton's and the DNC's emails.

Either that or they think the American public actually buys that line of reasoning, which is even worse.

[Walter_Sobchak]

[Vanagandr]

Friend: "Everything is going to go to shit if Trump is elected he is literally the worst candidate that's why I'm voting Hillary"

Me: "Are you confusing the executive office with congress?"

And then mad happened

 

I wish there was a list of all the things Hillary has done so I could just read it off to this guy for like thirty minutes without taking a breather

[Collimatrix]

A look at campaign rhetoric re-positioning

 

Politicians aren't people.  They're more like windsocks.

[Donward]

A look at campaign rhetoric re-positioning

Politicians aren't people. They're more like windsocks.

I see this Washington Post writer lives in a fantasy world where Democrats at the convention weren't heckling a Medal of Honor winner and that Marine general.

[Donward]

The major difference - other than Trump's unique celebrity history - is that he is the first Republican probably since Teddy Roosevelt to run on a message of Fuck Wall Street and Fuck Multi-National corporations which is what his anti-trade and anti-illegal immigrant stances boil down to. That and the fact that he obviously listens to conservative talk radio (or has aides who do) and is following the talking points of Rush Limbaugh and Michael Savage.

And to a GOP base that has been weened on 28 years of Limbaugh I guess it is now, this is gold.

On the flip side, the Democrats are straddling a crooked fence where Wall Street is bankrolling Hillary like they did with Obama yet they have to pretend to be the party of "the little guy" while still convincing Occupy Wall Street to vote.

They have to pretend that they are pro-police while still coddling Black Lives Matter.

They have to be pro-defense when - as mentioned - hundreds of convention delegates are booing a MoH winner.

It's the same "Big Tent" dilemma faced by the GOP in the latter part of W. Bush's administration and which crumbled in 2008 and 2012.

Trump's gambit, if it works, reworks both party's demographics and rejiggers the electoral map. Hell, I saw a poll a few weeks ago that had Trump within 3 points of the Hildabeast in Pinko Commie Oregon of all states.

On the other hand, Trump is Trump and he's the political equivalent of getting a blowjob while snorting coke off the back of a galloping Bengal tiger. For GOP white collar political drones who went to Hillsdale College and never worked a manual labor job and who have missionary-style sex once a week while old footage of Milton Friedman and William F. Buckley plays in the background, the thought of someone as uncouth as Trump, who is at ease among tatted ex-soldiers and construction workers and who is married to a model who posed nude with lesbians is something that they can't cope with.

[Sturgeon]

[Vanagandr]

Still a better love story than Twilight

[LoooSeR]

Putin and Trump riding Putin's trojan horse!

[Sturgeon]

[Toxn]

Since we just got done with locals - it looks like South Africa is entering coalition politics for the first time. The ANC is also on track to hit 50% in the next few cycles, and is rapidly turning into the party of the rural voter.

[Donward]

Washington state had its primary on Tuesday. We're a Top Two primary state meaning that only the top two vote getters advance to the November election, regardless of party.

The Libertarians did an admirable job of getting candidates for just about every statewide office and numerous state legislative spots.

They got shellacked. All but one received low single digit support.

I guess folks like the Two Party system afterall.

[Sturgeon]

Anybody else suspect that all those polls showing "40s/30s/teens" for Clinton/Trump/Johnson are basically made up?

I hate to think that because I don't like feeling like some conspiracy nut (or worse, one of Trump's blowhards), but A.) most of the people conducting the polls have a similar agenda, it seems, B.) We know that the Reuters polls are effed up, and C.) I am hugely skeptical that Johnson actually has that much support nationally.

I would be super interested to see all the stats for these polls, who was polled and how, where they live (if known), etc. I am suddenly interested in how these polls are conducted and how objective they really are.

Which makes me sound like pro-Trump nut, but oh well I guess.

[Donward]

There's polls and there's polls. I know there has been some scuttlebutt of polling groups rejiggering their numbers after the Trump bounce after the RNC Convention/Hillary email news.

The trick is to look inside the polls and they'll usually post who they sampled. 40 percent Dems, 35 percent Reps, 25 percent Inds, etc and whether they're registered or likely voters.

For Johnson, he is basically saying Fuck You to every former Ron Paul/Rand Paul Libertarian and is going hardcore SJW. I guess Johnson just came out supporting BlackLivesMatter. And this is all to curry favor with disaffected Bernie Sanders voters so he can get the magic 15 percent polling that will allow him into the debates.

It's still summer. Labor Day and after is when the shit gets real and nothing really matters that much now.

And I'm not sure how pollsters can accurately gauge how many new voters are going Trump or whether Sanders voters will actual defect to the Libertarians or stay home and watch C uck porn.

Hehehe.

But you are right to be wary. It's just that this is a crazy election and we haven't seen anything yet.

[Sturgeon]

BTW, here are what the "Likely Voter" numbers of that Reuters poll would look like if you adjusted them based on the demographics of the country with respect to party identification:
 

Trump - 36%

 

Clinton - 37%

 

Johnson - 10%

 

Stein - 3%

These are numbers being reported as a Clinton lead of four points over Trump. Turns out, if you poll more Democrats, it looks like the Democratic candidate is winning.

[Sturgeon]

There's polls and there's polls. I know there has been some scuttlebutt of polling groups rejiggering their numbers after the Trump bounce after the RNC Convention/Hillary email news.

The trick is to look inside the polls and they'll usually post who they sampled. 40 percent Dems, 35 percent Reps, 25 percent Inds, etc and whether they're registered or likely voters.

For Johnson, he is basically saying Fuck You to every former Ron Paul/Rand Paul Libertarian and is going hardcore SJW. I guess Johnson just came out supporting BlackLivesMatter. And this is all to curry favor with disaffected Bernie Sanders voters so he can get the magic 15 percent polling that will allow him into the debates.

It's still summer. Labor Day and after is when the shit gets real and nothing really matters that much now.

And I'm not sure how pollsters can accurately gauge how many new voters are going Trump or whether Sanders voters will actual defect to the Libertarians or stay home and watch C uck porn.

Hehehe.

But you are right to be wary. It's just that this is a crazy election and we haven't seen anything yet.

 

What I am seeing looks like a media campaign to paint Trump as a loser for the general. This seems more blatant than in previous years, but then maybe I am paying closer attention now.

The media obviously wants Trump to lose, so when I see "BREAKING NEWS TRUMP DOWN A BAJILLIONTY POINTS V CLINTON" on CNN, I start getting suspicious.

[Toxn]

Anybody else suspect that all those polls showing "40s/30s/teens" for Clinton/Trump/Johnson are basically made up?

I hate to think that because I don't like feeling like some conspiracy nut (or worse, one of Trump's blowhards), but A.) most of the people conducting the polls have a similar agenda, it seems, B.) We know that the Reuters polls are effed up, and C.) I am hugely skeptical that Johnson actually has that much support nationally.

I would be super interested to see all the stats for these polls, who was polled and how, where they live (if known), etc. I am suddenly interested in how these polls are conducted and how objective they really are.

Which makes me sound like pro-Trump nut, but oh well I guess.

It seems from the outside like this is one of these cases where there actually is a conspiracy.

 

I can feel the head honchos from both parties crawling over each other trying to work out how to deal with Trump from here. And it's now well known that both parties have extensive sway with the media and a host of other nominally neutral groups.

 

So it seems pretty logical that, if there is a single narrative that's being heavily punted, the fix is in.

[Donward]

Yep. It's happening.

And it has happened in prior elections with Romney, McCain, Bush in 2000...

Keep an eye on voter registration in states and any party registration switching.

And rallies are rallies. But it is telling if Trump can get 5,000, 10,000, 15,000 people turn out to hear him ramble without a TelePrompTer.

Those are real numbers. Those are real supporters. And everyone is a potential doorbell er, phone bank volunteer. Or at the least each one is someone who'll talk up Trump at work, at the bar and convince their friends, church and Cousin Mel to vote for him.

At some point the media will have to show Hillary cackling and coughing. And every time they do, her numbers drop.

[Sturgeon]

It seems from the outside like this is one of these cases where there actually is a conspiracy.

 

I can feel the head honchos from both parties crawling over each other trying to work out how to deal with Trump from here. And it's now well known that both parties have extensive sway with the media and a host of other nominally neutral groups.

 

So it seems pretty logical that, if there is a single narrative that's being heavily punted, the fix is in.

 

If Trump loses because of something like this, it will be as revealing as if he won. Either way, I will enjoy watching.

[Donward]

The other thing is that it has been shown that Trump will go "Squirrel!" over anything.

Now if it's bashing Elizabeth Warren, this helps him.

But if I were the Democrats, I'd be finding every Gold Star family, cancer survivor, orphan, and cute kitten that I can find to bash Trump.

[ApplesauceBandit]

I've always treated the news with a god deal of skepticism, so seeing a bias from them is something I would expect. What I think is more tricky is being able to tell when Trump is doing something as part of some master plan or when he is simply being foolish. With Hillary, I have to wonder what is corruption and rigging and what's just conspicarcy theories.

If Trump makes a controversial statement over banning all Muslims from entering he US and creating a Muslim database, is he doing it for attention and to make latter plans seem more moderate, or is that actually his plan? If some polls are indeed secretly counting "undecided" as "Hillary", that's a little dishonest. So many cases have gone either way.

I have too many Trump memes. Urge to shitpost rising.

[Toxn]

I've always treated the news with a god deal of skepticism, so seeing a bias from them is something I would expect. What I think is more tricky is being able to tell when Trump is doing something as part of some master plan or when he is simply being foolish. With Hillary, I have to wonder what is corruption and rigging and what's just conspicarcy theories.

If Trump makes a controversial statement over banning all Muslims from entering he US and creating a Muslim database, is he doing it for attention and to make latter plans seem more moderate, or is that actually his plan? If some polls are indeed secretly counting "undecided" as "Hillary", that's a little dishonest. So many cases have gone either way.

I have too many Trump memes. Urge to shitpost rising.

I think the best course is to assume that Trump is a trickster god, and that everything he does is both part of some master plan AND foolish.

 

Similarly, assume the Hillary is an envoy of Tzeentch - it's corrption, rigging and conspiracy theories all the way down.

[Vanagandr]

 

Turns out, if you poll more Democrats, it looks like the Democratic candidate is winning.

 

On the topic of media, a while back I finally stopped paying attention to any news media of any kind after NPR's "unbiased bias" started really showing. Driving without radio is actually kind of nice.

[Belesarius]

[Walter_Sobchak]

Donald Trump pledges to replace Constitution with the Ferengi Rules of Acquisition