LostCosmonaut Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Put this in its own topic instead of the space thread because it deserves its own discussion, and is darkly hilarious. SpaceX and its low launch costs for the Falcon 9 have already been squeezing Russian launch providers and ULA out of the market. This will only get worse if the Block 5 Falcon 9 provides the advances in reusability that are promised (and if BFR lives up to Elon's dreams it will blow everything out of the water). European launch provider Arianespace has been feeling the heat too; their Ariane 5 is a reliable but dated (compared to Falcon) architecture, and the Ariane 6 is an incremental improvement at best, which lacks reusability (and uses a hydrolox/solid first stage for some reason). The major German publication Der Spiegel recently interviewed Alain Charmeau, the head of Arianespace; http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/technik/alain-charmeau-die-amerikaner-wollen-europa-aus-dem-weltraum-kicken-a-1207322.html An English summary/discussion can be found here; https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/05/ariane-chief-seems-frustrated-with-spacex-for-driving-down-launch-costs/ There are some choice quotes in that article; "SpaceX is charging the US government 100 million dollar per launch, but launches for European customers are much cheaper." Still cheaper than ULA. Also, US government payloads have more oversight/stricter requirements than commercial payloads, which drives up costs. About two sentences later he admits that Arianespace couldn't exist without subsidies from European governments. Next part; During the interview, Charmeau also addressed reusability when the interviewer raised this as a possibility for lowering the cost of launch. In response, Charmeau asserts that the interviewer cannot know whether re-flying boosters is less expensive, as SpaceX claims. "How do you know that?" Charmeau asks. "Do you know their real cost structure?" Obviously Elon Musk thinks it is, otherwise he wouldn't be telling his for-profit business to develop reusability. Also, considering that Falcon 9 (especially Block 5) isn't an utterly ridiculous architecture like STS, it's certainly cheaper to reuse. Here's the real money quote; "Let us say we had ten guaranteed launches per year in Europe and we had a rocket which we can use ten times—we would build exactly one rocket per year," he said. "That makes no sense. I cannot tell my teams: 'Goodbye, see you next year!'" "My subsidized jobs program can't compete with SpaceX because they get government contracts!" Still better than SLS though. Also, Blue Origin is going to steal your identity; "It is about future business," Charmeau said. "Why do all the billionaires invest in space? Why does Jeff Bezos come to Germany and declare that the country should not go to space? He makes money with your personal data. Today he knows your Amazon orders, tomorrow he drives your car." GMerlon and Ramlaen 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramlaen Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 The sooner SpaceX and company kills off the dinosaurs in their welfare rut the better. Jeeps_Guns_Tanks, Oedipus Wreckx-n-Effect, roguetechie and 2 others 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alzoc Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 If it can force them to drive their price down (be it the ULA, Ariane espace or the russians) it will only be beneficial to everybody in the long run and facilitate space exploration. While I agree with him that we should keep some independent launch capability for military satellites and might need to bail out Ariane espace with public money in the short term (at the very least to make sure that we don't lose the know-how), nothing wrong with a bit of competition to force them to adapt and use public money more efficiently. If the price of launch goes down, we might see an increase of the number of launch per year which will make reusable rockets even more competitive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sturgeon Posted May 23, 2018 Report Share Posted May 23, 2018 On 5/21/2018 at 4:22 PM, LostCosmonaut said: Charmeau asserts that the interviewer cannot know whether re-flying boosters is less expensive, as SpaceX claims. "How do you know that?" Charmeau asks. "Do you know their real cost structure?" Is this guy for real? Does he really think building and certifying a brand new booster is cheaper than re-using an old one that's already been built and certified? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LostCosmonaut Posted May 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 23, 2018 On 5/21/2018 at 6:24 PM, Alzoc said: While I agree with him that we should keep some independent launch capability for military satellites and might need to bail out Ariane espace with public money in the short term (at the very least to make sure that we don't lose the know-how), nothing wrong with a bit of competition to force them to adapt and use public money more efficiently. I also want Arianespace to stay in existence, because as you said, more competition is good, and Europe has done a lot of good in space, especially in the scientific arena. It's a shame their CEO seems determined not to do that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LostCosmonaut Posted May 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 23, 2018 On 5/21/2018 at 6:24 PM, Alzoc said: If it can force them to drive their price down (be it the ULA, Ariane espace or the russians) it will only be beneficial to everybody in the long run and facilitate space exploration. While I agree with him that we should keep some independent launch capability for military satellites and might need to bail out Ariane espace with public money in the short term (at the very least to make sure that we don't lose the know-how), nothing wrong with a bit of competition to force them to adapt and use public money more efficiently. If the price of launch goes down, we might see an increase of the number of launch per year which will make reusable rockets even more competitive. I also want Arianespace to stay in existence, because as you said, more competition is good, and Europe has done a lot of good in space, especially in the scientific arena. It's a shame their CEO seems determined not to do that. 5 hours ago, Sturgeon said: Is this guy for real? Does he really think building and certifying a brand new booster is cheaper than re-using an old one that's already been built and certified? They probably did a quick calculation and determined it would be more expensive for them, without taking into account all the vertical integration SpaceX has, and that Falcon 9 has been designed for reusability from the outset. I'm sure if you tried jury-rig a stock Ariane 5 for reuse it'd be expensive as hell. Or, his brain is damaged from all the fluoride Jeff Bezos is putting in his water. Sturgeon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SirFlamenco Posted June 24, 2020 Report Share Posted June 24, 2020 On 5/21/2018 at 4:22 PM, LostCosmonaut said: About two sentences later he admits that Arianespace couldn't exist without subsidies from European governments. "My subsidized jobs program can't compete with SpaceX because they get government contracts!" Don’t trash the government too much, SpaceX couldn’t have existed without the billions from NASA. It’s FAR from a private sector at this point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sturgeon Posted June 24, 2020 Report Share Posted June 24, 2020 45 minutes ago, SirFlamenco said: Don’t trash the government too much, SpaceX couldn’t have existed without the billions from NASA. It’s FAR from a private sector at this point Fallacious. SpaceX has received something on the order of $10 billion in contracts from NASA ON ALMOST ALL OF WHICH IT HAS DELIVERED. Compare to, say, Boeing, which has received billions for one contract alone and still has not delivered. People want to claim SpaceX's contracts with the US government are a subsidy. But the magnitude of these contracts put together may be less than one legacy contract which is never resulted in anything or still has not delivered, and yet SpaceX has delivered so much more. There's no comparison. Dinosaurs like Arianespace want to try to pass "SpaceX takes government money too!" off as of they're not about to go extinct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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