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Short summary of that analysis.      Azerbaijan army conducting attack of Nagorniy Karabakh from 2 directions - Southern and Northern. Main attack is happening against city of Martakert (Nor

Massive fighting started along most of the Nagorno Karabakh border. The situation looks very serious as both Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia declared martial law and started general mobilisation.   

3rd pic show wheel that Mi-8s doesn't have. According to what i saw, those photos are from 2013, Russian AN-2 crash. That wheel looks like is a rear wheel of AN-2.

This could be one of the previosuly shown wrecks. An-2 being shot down by Strela or Osa.

 

This could be the same situation. What is falling down on the video looks again like An-2. 

 

Some Azeri drone wreckage (there is the optical ball at the end). 

 

Orbiter shot down by Osa.

 

Azeri kamikaze drone hitting a shelter with Armenian troops.

 

Some drone was shot down by Iranian SAM after allegedly crossing the border.

 

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Armor slaghterhouse continues. 

 

This video of Azeri TOS-1 looks legit.

 

Two aerial targets (probably UAV) hit by the Armenian AD at the same time. From the fact that stream of Bayraktar TB2 videos stopped and many videos of successful AD engagements started to appear it seems that armenian AD managed to overcome the initial shock. 

 

Some UAV wreckage.

 

Armenia claims that Turkish F-16 shot down Armenian Su-25 engaging it from the territory of Azerbaijan and killing its pilot. No proof has been released yet. 

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   Not sure if this show new episode with Azeri armor getting hit by ATGM and artillery, or this video shows an event that already was filmed from different POV. HEAT jet is visible when IMR was hit, so ATGMs or HEAT shells were used. After that - compilation of other vids.

 

   One of shot down plane (like AN-2 or something on the same level). Rumored to be unmanned, used to trigger AA systems and detect their positions and type.

 

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Military conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh.

- the Armenian Ministry of Defense said that the Turkish F-16 fighter shot down the Su-25 of the Armenian Air Force, the pilot was killed. After the incident, Armenia can apply to the CSTO, the issue is being discussed, the ambassador told RIA Novosti;

- The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry refutes the statements of the Armenian side that the Turkish fighter shot down the Su-25 of the Armenian Air Force;

 

- The Azerbaijani Armed Forces will destroy the S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems of Armenia if they move towards Karabakh, said the head of the press service of the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense;

- Turkey is ready to support Azerbaijan in the situation with Nagorno-Karabakh both at the negotiating table and on the battlefield - the head of the Turkish Foreign Ministry;

- the ambassador of Azerbaijan to the Russian Federation informed about the absence of peace negotiations on Karabakh;

- Armenia’s representative to the CSTO announced a possible threat to the country's territorial integrity;

- Baku reported about the shelling of a medical center in the Aghdam region of Azerbaijan. According to the Azerbaijani Prosecutor General's Office, a civilian died

 

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   The Russian Federation is obliged to take a balanced and non-adventurous position on the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh. This statement was made by the press secretary of the Russian president Dmitry Peskov during a conference call with the media, commenting on the statement of film director Karen Shakhnazarov.

 

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Earlier then others. Well, almost., [09/29/20 19:59]
️Azerbaijan is bombing villages on the territory of Armenia - Pashinyan on the air of the program "60 minutes"

 

Earlier then others. Well, almost., [09/29/20 20:00]
[In reply to First of all. Almost.]
️We have civilian casualties - Pashinyan

 

Earlier then others. Well, almost., [09/29/20 20:02]
[Photo]
Pashinyan on the air of the 60 Minutes program confirmed the death of the Armenian Su-25: this is a fact, a fait accompli

 

Earlier then others. Well, almost., [09/29/20 20:03]
️Turkey is looking for a reason to bring its troops to Nakhichevan - Pashinyan

 

Earlier then others. Well, almost., [09/29/20 20:04]
️ There is a war, there is a lot of destruction, casualties, a huge number of servicemen are involved - Pashinyan on the air of the "60 minutes" program

 

Earlier then others. Well, almost., [09/29/20 20:05]
️Our people are forced to use the right to self-defense - Pashinyan

 

Earlier then others. Well, almost., [09/29/20 20:06]
️The world community must force Turkey to leave the South Caucasus - Pashinyan

 

Earlier then others. Well, almost., [09/29/20 20:07]
️Now there is a threat to the existence of the Armenian people - Pashinyan on the air of the "60 minutes" program

 

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   About several shells hitting Iranian soil.

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   Deputy Commander of the Iranian Border Force, Brigadier General Qasem Rezai, warned Armenia and Azerbaijan today, September 28, to better control their military operations in the area bordering the Islamic Republic. The fact is that over the past 24 hours, mortar shells accidentally hit Iranian territory.

    “We warn them (Armenia and Azerbaijan. - Ed.) Not to shoot in our direction. Two mortar shells hit areas adjacent to our borders by mistake and we notified them. We hope that calm will be restored, ”Rezai told reporters in Tehran, Fars news agency reported.

At the same time, the Iranian military leader called on the two neighboring republics to solve their problems through negotiations.

    “Of course, we are monitoring their skirmishes, and these clashes will not benefit any of them, as others may abuse the situation,” the general said.

The corresponding notifications have already been sent to Armenia and Azerbaijan, he added.

 

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[09/29/20 20:51]
Pashinyan called Putin again: “Discussion of the situation in the zone of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is continued. Vladimir Putin expressed grave concern over the ongoing hostilities. The urgent need for the opposing sides to stop the fire and take measures to de-escalate the crisis was emphasized 

 

About Su-25, Azerbaijan claims.

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Azerbaijan calls attack on Su-25 Armenia's fantasy
   Attack on Su-25 aircraft belonging to the Armenian army in the sky of Karabakh is another fantasy of the Armenian military propaganda machine, ”said Colonel Vagif Dargahli, head of the press service of the Defense Ministry.

 

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   Short summary of that analysis.

 

   Azerbaijan army conducting attack of Nagorniy Karabakh from 2 directions - Southern and Northern. Main attack is happening against city of Martakert (North), southern attack is probably a distraction.

image

   On southern side there are reports that Armenia started counter-attacks and advances of Azerbaijan army are limited. 

 

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   Main target is city of Martakert (shown on the map), it can't be attack head on (terrain and Armenian defenses) so Azerbaijan army is trying to bypass main defensive lines by making flanking attack.

 

image

   It is likely that Azerbaijan leadership expects that if Martakert captured, part of Armenian troops in Northen part of Karabakh will flee or surrender, or they will be surrounded, which will allow to take at least part of Karabakh under Azerbaijan control.

   The are not many reports about captured towns of villages simply because there are not many of them on path of main attack.

   Mercenaries from Syria participating on Azerbaijan side were also reported by BBC and some other English-lang. media. Probably they are used because Azerbaijan infantry didn't showed much interesting in fighting Armenian troops directly. Combination of heavy artillery support and slow armor and infantry advances was chosen as main way to push by Northern group of Azer. attackers.

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Retreat of dozens of Azeri soldiers under fire with a gigantic cook off one one tank.

 

Yesterday I was wrong about the drones as tons of new drone footage from Azeri side post by Looser show. 

 

Wreck of some UAV.

 

Another An-2 downed.

 

Another UAV downed.

 

At least the first one here is successful interception of another flying object in the night. The second one may be a missile autodestruction as well. I don't know. 

 

Another successful interception. 

 

Captured Azeri BMP-2 No.397 (previously captured damaged ones caught on the video were No.386 and 388). 

 

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The current admitted number of fallen Armenian troops is 104. Nothing from Azeri side. Riam Dalati from BBC Syria claims to have verified already 9 Syrian fighters who died in Nagorno Karabach (of many more claimed). 

 

Allegedly Armenian pilot on parashute. No other details. 

 

This is 3 days old but it's another flying target shot down. Probably UAV.

 

Allegedly another drone downed by Iranian AD after intrusion into Iranian airspace. 

 

Some of the latest azeri drone footage shows hit on OSA decoys or a burned wreck (of Repellent anti-UAV system by the way). 

 

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   And again, eng subs using auto-translate gives an Ok translation. Short video, right to the point.

 

Short summary.

   1. Russia is interested in peace in that region. Turkey have different interests for internal policy reasons. Because Americans are not in the game, and because Armenian president is "pro-American", it is a good moment to solve a 30 years conflict around Karabakh. 

   2. Any Armenian gov. that signs surrender of Karabakh is going to be a political suicide. In today situation Russia benefits from Armenia losing, as current president is "West" oriented and after Azerbaijan victory he will become a political corpse, which will allow to change Armenian leadership to something different.

   3. Armenian population is decreasing, including in Karabakh, while Azerbaijan's is much bigger and is growing, which dictates future of this region. 

   4. Pashinyan talked to Putin twice, and both times offered solution for problem was unacceptable for Armenian president. Probably a solution that Putin offered was Karabakh becoming Azerbaijan's, with Russian peacekeeping mission.

   5. All is going to be decided in combat on north of Karabakh.

 

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   Macron: Syrian militants are in Nagorno-Karabakh

   "We have accurate information that indicates that Syrian militants left the battlefield in Gaziantep to join the fighting in Karabakh. This is very serious. We have agreed with President Trump and President Putin to exchange all the information we have on this situation in order to draw all the necessary conclusions from this. As members of the OSCE Minsk Group, we are acting to return the situation to a normal state and ceasefire without any conditions.

   No shit, Sherlock.

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- the presidents of Russia, the United States and France adopted a statement on the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh and called on the leadership of Armenia and Azerbaijan to resume negotiations without preconditions. The leaders of the countries believe that the fighting should end immediately;

 

- Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan considers it unacceptable that the OSCE Minsk Group strives to achieve a ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh;

 

- Macron stated that there are facts that the Syrian Islamists from Turkey are taking part in the hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh;

 

- journalists from two Armenian media outlets, Dozhd', Le Monde and France-Presse, came under fire in Karabakh. Some are seriously injured;

 

- The Russian Foreign Ministry has again warned that irresponsible actions of third parties on Karabakh can provoke escalation and destabilization in the entire Transcaucasia.

 

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   Azerbaijan UAVs are flying into Armenia

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Four enemy drones appeared in the sky over the Kotakisk and Gegharkunik regions. Armenian air defense forces have already destroyed three of them - Prime Minister of Armenia Pashinyan

UPD: later destroyed and the fourth UAV

 

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According to the information of Anadolu's agency from diplomatic sources, Cavusoglu said at a meeting with Lavrov that without a permanent solution to the Armenian-Azerbaijani problem and until the end of the occupation, a ceasefire would not make sense, and even if an armistice is reached today, clashes will resume.

 

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