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Short summary of that analysis.      Azerbaijan army conducting attack of Nagorniy Karabakh from 2 directions - Southern and Northern. Main attack is happening against city of Martakert (Nor

Massive fighting started along most of the Nagorno Karabakh border. The situation looks very serious as both Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia declared martial law and started general mobilisation.   

3rd pic show wheel that Mi-8s doesn't have. According to what i saw, those photos are from 2013, Russian AN-2 crash. That wheel looks like is a rear wheel of AN-2.

Downed Harop wreckage. Interestingly all the latest wreckage shown by Armenian side in the last few days suggests that the UAVs were brought down by EW-means and not by missiles (none of them show any shrapnel damage, including the TB2). 

 

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Today both sides attacked civilian targets with plenty of civilians killed (Stepanakert, Shushi in NKR and Barda in Azerbaijan)...

 

Meanwhile another UAV most likely shot down by EW because of no visible shrapnel damage (as all downed UAVs shown in the last week or so). Does anyone know what type of UAV is it? It looks similar to ThunderB but not same. It's second one shot down this week. 

 

And another poor An-2... 

 

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56 minutes ago, Beer said:

 

/.../

Does anyone know what type of UAV is it? It looks similar to ThunderB but not same. It's second one shot down this week. 

/.../

 

      Elbit Systems loitering mution - SkyStriker, as i understand new version as their site shows different looking model. Both UAVs on photos lack 2 upper tailwings, BTW.

369946

 

https://elbitsystems.com/product/skystriker/

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   Video appeared of Azerbaijan troops under fire retreating (possibly), apperently it was geolocated.

https://radikal.ru/video/pTDw4CF019v

(sorry for crappy link)

 

32112969

   Azeri forces are trying to bypass towns through mountains, highlithed are Lachin and Shusha towns, which are located on major road that connects Karabakh to Armenia. Also, this place is significantly north of areas controlled by Azerbaijan according to oct 26 map.

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   A bit of copypasta

Quote

Karnaukhov, [10/28/20 11:22 PM]
[Forwarded from Russian tarantas]
   How Armenia prepared for war from Yevgeny Krutikov:
   "Over the past year, the Armenian military lost contact with Moscow, any contacts in the intelligence sphere between the two countries were curtailed - and this was done at the initiative of the political leadership of Armenia."
   Further:
   "three intelligence leaders were replaced, and one of them had no competence and was a purely political appointee at the suggestion of the West.
   All this was accompanied by internal anti-Russian rhetoric, multiplied by national arrogance. "
   And the cherry:
   "In the past six months, the General Staff of Armenia has undergone mass dismissals of officers who were trained in Moscow at one time. And the pretext for this was the wedding of the daughter of the Chief of the General Staff, which allegedly "did not follow the rules of conduct during the coronavirus pandemic."

 

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   Another video of strikes vs NKR/Armenian troops.

 

   Last shown strike, with cluster munitions and heavy HE warhead was geolocated.

Elh-Mkyd-Xg-AEj-Pk-format-jpg

 

Spoiler

Elh-Mmjt-Wk-AMc-BC3-format-jpg

 

https://www.google.com/maps/place/39°45'44.9"N+46°47'40.5"E/@39.762464,46.794593,575m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d39.762464!4d46.794593?hl=en

   About 3-3,3 km away from Shusha

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   Arkady Karapetyan: "Fights are at the gates of Shushi"
   Another leader of the Armenian military elite in Nagorno-Karabakh, General Arkady Karapetyan, stated that the Azerbaijani army approached to Shushi. He called on all residents of Armenia for help, threatening that otherwise they [Azerbaijan] would go to Armenia with troops.

 

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   Azerbaijan troops near Susha. Khojavend is in danger of being outflanked, so it is likely NKR/Armenian forces will abandon it soon. Azeri troops can try to hit road between Lacin and Shusha and areas between Shusha and Khojavend in order to capture dominating mountains/heights and push NKR troops out of towns. Shusha have a chance to see urban fighting.

image

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