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Sturgeon's House

AKP looses majority in dirty election

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Turkey has for 500 years been a key nation - first as the core of a world girding empire, then as a country whose very existence was not a foregone conclusion.  It has also been the focus of some real issues - genocide denial, VERY loose play with extreme Islamists, and the like.  In terms of understanding her history there is more lie than real in nearly every conversation about her.  Few people realize that the genocide against the Armenians was carried out largely by Kurds who were paid auxiliaries of the Ottomans, or that the Turks did admit the genocide until the 1920s, or that nearly 1000 perpetrators of the genocide were assassinated by Armenian hitmen in the years after the events.


Erdogan came to power in 2002 with a rising swell of love for Islamic traditions based in part in Turkey seeing Islam, with the successful attacks on the US, as the route it would take into the future.  With a failing Russia, Turkish pundits talked of the new Caliphate, eventual remove of the holy cities from the House of Saud and their return to subordinate Mufti control, and a movement to a Turkish lead Islamic axis.  The problem with this is that only about 20% of the population agreed.  So Erdogan had to change the constitution to allow minority rule and turn one Turk one vote to one Turk, one vote, one time.  The result has been revolt by common people, brutal repression, secret police, and a Turkey that looked more like the Sublime Port than the land of Ataturk.  


That all crashed to a halt today.  In one of the most violence ridden and corrupt elections of Turkish history - with bombs going off at nearly all major opposition HQ, with Turkish police beating up and sending away from the polls known supporters of opposition powers, with mass mailings threatening arrest and death to people who vote against the government, and with poll operators outright refusing to allow some polls to open in position neighborhoods, AKP still succeeded in having crushing defeat handed it.  If the election was free the polls would have handed them 25% of the seats.  As it is they got 40%, and if they cannot form a coalition government then the option of calling a new election simply won't fix it for them because they will likely loose MORE seats as people who were scared away from the first round come back for the second.


While no one will notice this in the west, this is the equivalent of Putin loosing an election in terms of earth shaking results.

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Rumor in the chatosphere is that Erdogan's people crossed a line by bombing opposing HQs and using the police to rule the polls.  The worry is that with the line crossed, there is nothing stopping Erdogan from abrogating the Constitution and declaring a his new model.  That would ignite one of the more stable countries in the region.

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