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Ukrainian Civil War Thread: All Quiet on the Sturgeon Front


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  • 8 months later...

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Military cargo via planes to Ukraine in a month. Would be interesting to see what was airlifted and if any of cargo was paid by Ukraine.

 

Also as some people claimed war didn't started on 16th. Still have opportunity to start it. Not sure what political purpose of doing big exercises in border areas with Ukraine.

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1 hour ago, LoooSeR said:

Mass evac of civilians is in effect in DPR and LPR, official statemants are out, Putin approved payments to refugess from Donbass... i think this thread will get active again.

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Exact same scenario happened in 2008, I wonder if they use same busses.

Troops build up, civilians evacuation, now they gonna start shooting at Ukrainians and convoys start crossing border. Then Ukrainian people gonna demand action, Ukrainian government will fall for preemptive strike trap and war starts. 

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After recognition of DPR and LPR next step will be pushing Ukraine out of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, borders of thise in their constitutions are drawn outside of current ones. Not sure when or how it will be done, but it is likely our leadership with push.

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Heh, didn't took them long

   "The vice-speaker of the LPR parliament said that the territory of the republic is the entire Luhansk region

   He also called on the Armed Forces of Ukraine to voluntarily withdraw troops, otherwise "measures will be taken."

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For now its still not happening  and according to OSCE stats its still mostly Ukrainians shelling the separatists or they are shelling themselves (not certain how that works ou). At one point they will either have to stop or the scenario LooSeR is implying will unfold 

 

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The 14.500+ killed likely follow much the similar pattern as these stats show.

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Confirmed missile attack on Kiev at 6h15 (Kiev hour).

Video of the declaration of war was apparently recorded Monday evening at 19h (Moscow hour), at the same time of the recognition of the two separatist republic, and played Thursday morning at 5h30 (Moscow time) according to Novaïa Gazeta (Russian tabloid opposition journal). This was apparently a rumor and the video was recorded at 3h45 (Moscow) :

 

Spoiler

 

 

 

 

 

At around 8h20 (Kiev time) Russia claimed that Ukrainian air defence and air bases have been destroyed (smoke can be seen at the airport of Kherson, Mykolaïv and Ivano-Frankivsk)

Ukrainian border guard reported Russian troops crossing the frontier from Belarus at Senkivka 235 km from KieV.

 

Don't have much on how things are reported in Russia since most of what I have is what is relayed by French press.

 

Edit : CCTV of Senkivka border post on CNN

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   Looks like one of main push is to Kharkov with future possible target is to get to city of Dnepr.

   Another group of forces are attacking Ukrainian troops in northen part of Luhansk oblast'. Forces from LNR are moving towards Russian army troops pushing from the north, which means Ukr forces there will be cut and part of them encircled. 

 

   Zelenskiy disappeared but last his video was done during night on a smartphone, what he told was based on rumors but not anything serious, possibly signaling that Ukrainian state is in disarray.

 

   Most likely scenario is that political power after 2014 will be declared as illegitimate and it is possible new people will be installed in Kiev with aim to get Ukraine in ODKB and CIS.

 

 

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   MOSCOW, 23 February. /TASS/. The heads of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics Denis Pushilin and Leonid Pasechnik appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin with a request to assist in repelling aggression from the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in order to avoid civilian casualties and prevent a humanitarian catastrophe in Donbass. This was reported to journalists by the press secretary of the head of the Russian state Dmitry Peskov.

   "The President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin received letters of appeal from the head of the Luhansk People's Republic Leonid Pasechnik and the head of the Donetsk People's Republic Denis Pushilin," he said. states".

   According to Peskov, "in connection with the current situation, as well as in order to prevent civilian casualties and a humanitarian catastrophe, on the basis of Articles 3 and 4 of the treaties on friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between the Russian Federation and the republics, they are asking the President of Russia to provide assistance in repulse the aggression of the armed forces and formations of Ukraine". 

/.../

Heh, it indeed started on 23rd February, ironic.

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   Special military operation begins in Ukraine - Putin

   The plans of the Russian Federation do not include the occupation of Ukraine

   Putin: I must appeal to the military of Ukraine, you swore an oath to the people, not the junta, I urge you to immediately lay down your arms and go home 

 

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The Russian armed forces do not carry out any missile, air or artillery strikes on the cities of Ukraine,

Military infrastructure, air defense facilities, military airfields and aviation of the Ukrainian army are disabled by high-precision weapons

Nothing threatens the civilian population of Ukraine

MO RF 

 

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RAF pushing north from Crimea to Dniepr river with no resistance.

 

DPR - UAF is being hit hard north of Mariupol. Russian army is going around big towns, around Kharkov in particular with second to no resistance. Another route of push is from Sumi and Akhtirka, to cut group of UAF around DPR and LPR from rest of Ukraine. Another attack is aimed to Kiev from the north through Chernigov.

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  • Russian troops have landed in Odessa and are crossing the border into Kharkiv, Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to the Ukrainian Interior Ministry, said.
  • Ukrainian military command posts in Kyiv and Kharkiv subjected to rocket attacks
  • Missile strikes are carried out on the objects of the tactical aviation brigade near Vasilkov, the main air defense aviation of Ukraine. 

 

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Russian Defense Ministry: Ukrainian border guards do not offer any resistance to Russian units

Russian Defense Ministry: Air Defense Forces of Ukraine Suppressed

Russian Defense Ministry: the military infrastructure of the air bases of the armed forces of Ukraine is disabled 

 

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RIA Novosti, [2/24/2022 11:45]
️Russian Ministry of Defense: intelligence data show that units and servicemen of the Ukrainian army are massively leaving their positions, abandoning their weapons

 

RIA Novosti, [2/24/2022 11:45]
️Russian Ministry of Defense: the positions of Ukrainian army units that laid down their arms are not subject to strikes 

 

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Near Kharkov

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During this night, Kharkov:

Spoiler

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Quote

The Goptovka border checkpoint on the Ukrainian-Russian border in the Dergachevsky district of the Kharkiv region was actually demolished by armored vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces. 

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Russian armor entering Ukraine through Belarus:

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