Ukrainian Civil War Thread: All Quiet on the Sturgeon Front

[Pardus]

 

Some good news.

 

Hopefully the people responsible will be held accountable.

[RobertV]

You got to be trolling.   Nobody is this gullibly stupid.

[Pardus]

12 minutes ago, RobertV said:

You got to be trolling.   Nobody is this gullibly stupid.

 

If showing you the reality of the war in Ukraine is trolling, sure, you can call it that then.

[Jeeps_Guns_Tanks]

 

Quote

You got to be trolling.   Nobody is this gullibly stupid.

 

Nah, he's just the brain dead target audience for the pro global war propaganda.

[Pardus]

 

[Pardus]

34 minutes ago, Jeeps_Guns_Tanks said:

 

 

Nah, he's just the brain dead target audience for the pro global war propaganda.

 

Sure thing buddy, I'm so pro war that I dare condemn Putin for invading a sovereign democratic country (twice!) 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60675599

[Lord_James]

31 minutes ago, Pardus said:

 

Sure thing buddy, I'm so pro war that I dare condemn Putin for invading a sovereign democratic country (twice!) 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60675599

 

34 minutes ago, Pardus said:

 

If there’s going to be a regime change, the best thing that could happen is everyone else staying out of it, so we don’t continue this problem of “foreign powers are swaying elections” that got us into this shit. I doubt that will happen, because international politics leave something to be desired, but I can hope. 

[Jeeps_Guns_Tanks]

4 hours ago, Pardus said:

 

Sure thing buddy, I'm so pro war that I dare condemn Putin for invading a sovereign democratic country (twice!) 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60675599

 

So when do you leave for the Ukraine? Surely your crusade must lead to you fighting for freedom?  

 

[LoooSeR]

7 hours ago, RobertV said:

You got to be trolling.   Nobody is this gullibly stupid.

Just for a note - not banning him because he is laughable idiot.

[Cobras]

Anyone got intel on wtf is going on here? (edit: on the video I mean)

Edited March 10, 2022 by Cobras

[heretic88]

I long time didnt post on this forum, didnt really want to, but the ignorance of some people made me do so.

 

First, I ABSOLUTELY condemn this war! There were far, far better options to deal with ukraine.

 

BUT!

 

Even though Putin said lots of idiocy about the reasons to attack ukraine, he is right in some things.

First, to the surprise of some ignorants, the ukrainian fascism is a REAL THING. Current ukrainian government not even tolerates, actively supports extremist groups. Russian, Hungarian, and also Jewish communities are frequently harassed in that country. Death threats are common against these people, sometimes unfortunately murders happen too. Where was the EU when these happened? Where was the NATO? Where was the international outrage? In the west, if someone is "misgendered", whole country is talking about it. In ukraine, these messages are totally accepted, nobody cares in the EU (even though EU politicians are 100% aware of their existence!)

 

It happened a year ago if Im not mistaken. Where was the west?

 

Also. Minsk agreements. Ukraine didnt even give a fuck about them, and never intended to comply. In the last few years, they began to be more and more provocatory. Russian or ukrainian attack was totally inevitable in the end.

 

The conclusion is that Ukraine, is FAR, FAR from being innocent! And FAR from being a victim! Equally guilty as Putin at best. But probably more. Think about these, when reading shitloads of BS pouring from ukrainian propaganda...

Also think about when a country's main national hero is a guy named Stepan Bandera...

[RobertV]

1 hour ago, Cobras said:

Anyone got intel on wtf is going on here?

 

The state of things is this.    Though not quite up to date.

 

 

Basically Ukrainian forces are trapped  and squeezed in Donetsk Pavlograd pocket and are being slowly cleansed in places like  Mariupol, etc.   However due to limiting Civ casualties things have been going slow and bloody.   Also doesn't help that Ukrainian forces are  basicly using civ's as shields.  Placing their own artillery near points like schools  populated flats; etc.    Then of course this.  

 

 

 

 

Overall,  things aren't  like Ukrainians are trying to portray.    But you can also say that the  entire operation seems like it wasn't well thought out and not at all prepared for on the Russian part.

 

 Pulling punches is also stupid.  As a lot of AD got away.  Not targeting barracks  and civilian communications also.   And that list can go on and on. 

 

 

[RobertV]

59 minutes ago, heretic88 said:

 

 

First, I ABSOLUTELY condemn this war! There were far, far better options to deal with ukraine.

 

 

Yeah, I don't get this either.   And do wonder why.

[Cobras]

btw I meant on the video, you can see a BMP-2? and a T-64? getting rekt and then a T-72? rushing the other T-64? no idea where or what was happening on that video, but it looks like a tank combat, no ATGMs where used as I can see. And yeah I didnt think this war would happen either, maybe there really were US Biolabs in Ukraine, either way Russia made alot of blunders in the beginning and is still  osing a relative high number of personel and equipament (considering its 3 crew dead per armored vehicle/tank).

[Sturgeon]

USER PARDUS HAS BEEN BANNED UNTIL MAY 1 FOR INSUFFICIENT LOYALTY TO VLADOLF PUTLER

[Domus Acipenseris]

Francis Fukuyama on the conflict.  (Apparently, history did not end, who could have foreseen that in 1992?  Everyone except him actually)

 

https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

 

1.  Russia will outright lose.  (If they can slowly grind forward and keep any momentum they could win if they can last long enough).

2.  Their collapse might be sudden and drastic, not attritional.

3.  No diplomatic solution possible prior to Russian collapse (this is obviously correct).

4.  UN Security Council is useless.  (Who thought otherwise?)

5.  No-fly zone and Polish MiGs to Ukraine would be bad decisions.

6.  Massive cost to Ukraine but the only way to stop is is defeating Russia.  (Or Ukraine surrenders and then Russia has to hold Ukraine against an insurgency).

7.  Putin will not survive a defeat.  (Correct.  See Saddam's behavior in '90-'91).

8.  The war has damaged populists all over the world.  (Correct).

9.  Lessons for China.  A high-tech military with no combat experience is unreliable.  

10.  Taiwan needs to wake up.

11.  Turkish drones will sell well.  (I think all drones will sell well).

12.  The spirit of 1989 will be resurgent.  (Whatever dude.)

 

Maybe the overall military lesson from this war is that urban combat in the 21st century is almost untenable.  No one has the infantry to take a fortified city.  Public opinion will not tolerate siege (starvation and disease) tactics nor will it tolerate flattening cities.  Neither can be hidden with new media technologies.  Any army that invades an area with cities will either have to be welcomed in or it will sit outside and become the target of strikes from manned air/drones/artillery.  #9 from the list is interesting.  Many thought Russia would perform much better. 

 

https://www.rand.org/pubs/reprints/RP479.html

Ukraine has 40 million people.  If half are pro-Russian that means Russia needs to occupy 20 million people.  It takes 400,000-500,000 troops to do that.  They do not have that many and they cannot hold Ukraine at least according to the formula in the paper above.

 

 

[Sturgeon]

1 minute ago, Domus Acipenseris said:

Francis Fukuyama on the conflict.  (Apparently, history did not end, who could have foreseen that in 1992?  Everyone except him actually)

 

https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

 

1.  Russia will outright lose.  (If they can slowly grind forward and keep any momentum they could win if they can last long enough).

2.  Their collapse will be sudden and drastic, not attritional.

3.  No diplomatic solution possible prior to Russian collapse (this is obviously correct).

4.  UN Security Council is useless.  (Who thought otherwise?)

5.  No-fly zone and Polish MiGs to Ukraine would be bad decisions.

6.  Massive cost to Ukraine but the only way to stop is is defeating Russia.  (Or Ukraine surrenders and then Russia has to hold Ukraine against an insurgency).

7.  Putin will not survive a defeat.  (Correct.  See Saddam's behavior in '90-'91).

8.  The war has damaged populists all over the world.  (Correct).

9.  Lessons for China.  A high-tech military with no combat experience is unreliable.  

10.  Taiwan needs to wake up.

11.  Turkish drones will sell well.  (I think all drones will sell well).

12.  The spirit of 1989 will be resurgent.  (Whatever dude.)

 

Maybe the overall military lesson from this war is that urban combat in the 21st century is almost untenable.  No one has the infantry to take a fortified city.  Public opinion will not tolerate siege (starvation and disease) tactics nor will it tolerate flattening cities.  Neither can be hidden with new media technologies.  Any army that invades an area with cities will either have to be welcomed in or it will sit outside and become the target of strikes from manned air/drones/artillery.  #9 from the list is interesting.  Many thought Russia would perform much better. 

 

https://www.rand.org/pubs/reprints/RP479.html

Ukraine has 40 million people.  If half are pro-Russian that means Russia needs to occupy 20 million people.  It takes 400,000-500,000 troops to do that.  They do not have that many and they cannot hold Ukraine at least according to the formula in the paper above.

 

 

 

Francis Fukuyama is a moron lmfao

[mr.T]

 

 

[oldroads]

GeoPoliticalFutures which is a subscriber only site has its take on events keeping in mind it has multiple contributors from around the world but is American focused.

 

* Prior to invasion a rumour they heard Russia was offered a deal, the USA stays out of Ukraine but Russia must stay out of Belarus, it was declined.

* Russian strategy was politically driven to scare Ukraine into signing an agreement and to undermine Nato via the new German government wanting the invasion problem to go away, Germany caved under western pressure and Ukraine resistance was higher than expected when Russia rolled in.

* Russian armed forces were operating like something out of the cold war with large armoured formations and all the problems that incurs,  puzzled why the internet is still active etc (no war is clean and you definitely don't want it broadcast to the world of today), decisions may be have been politically made rather than what's best tactically.

* The Ukrainian armed forces have dispersed requiring Russian infantry units having to sweep areas clear before armour can push through, the west is flooding Ukraine with infantry anti-armour weapons.

* The Russian Air Force has not much to hit targets wise (not because its incapable).

* Russia needs a quick win and cannot let this drag on which is what the west wants.

 

Economics

* If Russia can survive the initial shock from global sanctions it will be fine in the long run, also sanctions sometimes can have the opposite effect and actually help domestic production and technology, Russia is self reliant in many areas but will loose access to high end technology and luxury goods from the west.

* Huge risks in wheat and fertilizer production, Russia and Ukraine are both major global suppliers, if conflict drags on it will badly affect North Africa the main customers which could in turn fuel instability in an already fragile part of the world.

 

What some in the west fear the most is that a Eurasian alliance forms with its own international finance institutions and technology it hasn't happened yet but this could accelerate its creation, the USA is going to be working overtime to keep China and Russia apart.

 

How things play out remains to be seen, the west has done as much as it can without direct war, either Putin gets a compromise deal with west (no way they allow it at this point but months from now attitudes may change) or Russia breaks Ukrainian morale and forces a surrender.

 

My own view on this talk of insurgency is made by people with not much understanding, Ukraine is not Afghanistan, if Russia were to occupy all of Ukraine;

* Ukraine is not a poor/undeveloped country its citizens have something to loose, bills to pay, going to school etc. they cannot afford to send their sons off to die.

* Ukraine is flat there is not many places to hide.

* Russia has a fairly effective secret police in putting down revolts once military occupation ends.

* Ukraine/Russia share language/culture/religion, Russians are not strangers to Ukraine something the Soviets and Americans failed to understand in Afghanistan.

* Entry points into Ukraine via EU can be policed by Russian "peace keeping" forces and resupplied via Belarus, Afghanistan was surrounded by unfriendly countries to USA.

 

This action by Putin defiantly backfired when it comes to Nato which was falling apart all on its own, as Macron pointed out much to the anger of western elites a few years ago. Now Nato is fully rejuvenated, Germany is going to re-arm which is going to be another problem (many in Europe are nervous about Germany with large military). The USA has gotten new military bases in EU countries Denmark/Romania and support for Nato has sky rocketed in Sweden/Finland, Turkey is being brought in from the cold. All anti-Russia hard liners are now politically untouchable in the west.

[RobertV]

It's to be seen just how much Germany is going to re-arm.  Or most NATO members for that matter.

 

But otherwise a lot what's written seems likely/on point.  

 

Thanks.

[mr.T]

Lack of precision guided munitions , means lot of old fashioned CAS at low level with all the dangers it entails

 

 

 

[Cobras]

Like when they used Su-34s to drop FAB-100/250s, bruh...

[mr.T]

17 hours ago, Cobras said:

Like when they used Su-34s to drop FAB-100/250s, bruh...

 

Indeed mostly FAB and Unguided rockets point blank.

https://vk.com/video-160233565_456239930

[mr.T]

Javelins and NLAW on both sides as captured gear gets transfered to Donbas militias

 

Russian manual on Javelin

https://vk.com/doc578708034_632152242?hash=ac5ff774d7fd534941&dl=497e5263594ac6b29a

 

https://vk.com/video-77993266_456250393

[Jägerlein]

Hearts and minds again:
https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/zdf-mittagsmagazin/ukraine-drohne-video-zivilist-erschossen-100.html