Ukrainian Civil War Thread: All Quiet on the Sturgeon Front

[Alzoc]

1 hour ago, LoooSeR said:

I only know of 1 (Navy fleet one that died near Mariupol recently).

 

Not sure all claims have been verified but here is what have been reported :

 

• Maj Gen Oleg Mityaev : Commander of the 150th rifle division ; Killed near Mariupol by Azov battalion
• Maj Gen Andrei Kolesnikov : Commander of the 29th combined army ; Killed 11th of march
• Maj Gen Vitaly Gerasimov : Chief of staff of the 41st combined army ; Killed 7th of march oustide Karkov
• Maj Gen Andrey Sukhovetsky : Deputy commander of the 41st combined army ; Killed by sniper the 3rd of march ; Death was apparently confirmed by Russian media as well
• LT General Andrei Mordvichev : Commander of the 8th general army of the southern district ; reported on the 19th of march ; Killed during the attack of an airfield in Chornobayivka (Kherson region) by Ukrainian forces

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60767664

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-russia-troops-generals-kyiv-mordvichev-death-1689727

 

NATO now estimate Russian losses to be between 7000 to 15 000 soldiers dead for a total 30 000 to 40 000 uncapacited (wounded/killed/prisoners/missing).

 

https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2022/03/23/guerre-en-ukraine-l-otan-dresse-un-premier-bilan-des-pertes-russes_6118848_3210.html

 

Edit : fixed their ranks that I mixed up with their posting

[LoooSeR]

2 minutes ago, Alzoc said:

 

Not sure all claims have been verified but here is what have been reported :

 

• Commander Oleg Mityaev : 150th rifle division ; Killed near Mariupol by Azov battalion
• Commander Andrei Kolesnikov : 29th combined army ; Killed 11th of march
• Chief of staff Vitaly Gerasimov : 41st combined army ; Killed 7th of march oustide Karkov
• Deputy Commander Andrey Sukhovetsky : 41st combined army ; Killed by sniper the 3rd of march ; Death was apparently confirmed by Russian media as well
• LT General Andrei Mordvichev : 8th general army of the southern district ; reported on the 19th of march ; Killed during the attack of an airfield in Chornobayivka (Kherson region) by Ukrainian forces

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60767664

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-russia-troops-generals-kyiv-mordvichev-death-1689727

 

NATO now estimate Russian losses to be between 7000 to 15 000 soldiers dead for a total 30 000 to 40 000 uncapacited (wounded/killed/prisoners/missing).

 

https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2022/03/23/guerre-en-ukraine-l-otan-dresse-un-premier-bilan-des-pertes-russes_6118848_3210.html

Only 1 AFAIK is confirmed - one dead near Mariupol. If any other have confirmation on others - post here.

 

15k dead is way too many for this operation, especially when in last 2-3 weeks we were not doing any advances. In first days, when huge amount of dead were posted, MoD claimed 600 killed and 1.5k wounded. Amount of dead filmed that i saw from those days were about 100-150 killed. 15k dead would mean around 50-70k wounded (with ~40/60 and ~20/80 ratio of wounded to killed), which is half or 2/3rds of total amount of forces that were positioned around Ukraine before 24th of Febr, which will mean that all invading troops were either killed or wounded. Frontline would collapse and Ukrainian troops would have been already in Crimea if this was a case.

[LoooSeR]

Interesting read on Ukrainian PR in this war, gives a bit of look on who does it
https://www.mintpressnews.com/ukraine-propaganda-war-international-pr-firms-dc-lobbyists-cia-cutouts/280012/

[Alzoc]

51 minutes ago, LoooSeR said:

15k dead is way too many for this operation, especially when in last 2-3 weeks we were not doing any advances. In first days, when huge amount of dead were posted, MoD claimed 600 killed and 1.5k wounded. Amount of dead filmed that i saw from those days were about 100-150 killed. 15k dead would mean around 50-70k wounded (with ~40/60 and ~20/80 ratio of wounded to killed), which is half or 2/3rds of total amount of forces that were positioned around Ukraine before 24th of Febr, which will mean that all invading troops were either killed or wounded. Frontline would collapse and Ukrainian troops would have been already in Crimea if this was a case.

 

I agree that the higher estimates are unlikely (and are probably taken almost directly from Ukrainian claims).

Same article state that the Pentagon estimated around 2000 to 4000 KIA after two weeks and the NY Times cited an US intelligence source claiming around 7000 KIA after 3 weeks.

Those are still huge losses and may be one of the reasons (others are lack of fuel and poor logistics in general) why the advance all but stopped recently.

 

According to some analysts, Russian forces are simply spread too thin on too many fronts and have lost most capability to conduct manoeuvrer warfare. With the exception of what is happening in Mariupol, Russian forces  had to dig in and resort to simply shelling enemy position :

 

Spoiler

Interview of the former deputy chief of staff for NATO European HQ

 

 

 

That hypothesis has some merit when looking at various maps of reported advance :

 

Spoiler

 

Different sites :

https://liveuamap.com/

https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2022/03/02/guerre-en-ukraine-suivez-en-carte-l-evolution-de-l-invasion-russe-au-jour-le-jour_6115863_4355770.html

 

The flanks of the various attack prongs are way too long to be effectively protected, and it is likely that it make supply convoys very vulnerable to either sabotage (railways, bridge, mines) or ambush by small groups of Ukrainian forces left behind.

[RobertV]

10 hours ago, LoooSeR said:

I don't see pictures in tweets linked in the forum. Can you upload it to imagehosting?

 

 

This supposed to be according to Ukrainians  part of the Krasuhka EW complex

 

 

Which frankly could and likely is a refrigerator container.  

[LoooSeR]

5 hours ago, RobertV said:

 

 

This supposed to be according to Ukrainians  part of the Krasuhka EW complex

 

 

Which frankly could and likely is a refrigerator container.  

Discussed it on otvaga, most likely generator unit. Jammer/EW system have big ass antenna on top, not visible here.

[Varrager]

9 hours ago, LoooSeR said:

Discussed it on otvaga, most likely generator unit. Jammer/EW system have big ass antenna on top, not visible here.

You sure its just not visible due to being tipped over? The antenna can also be stowed away:

Spoiler

Whats visible of the exterior seems to match up to Krasuhka, and I can't find any generators that fit into this form factor myself.

[rocketeer]

On 3/24/2022 at 6:34 PM, LoooSeR said:

15k dead is way too many for this operation, especially when in last 2-3 weeks we were not doing any advances. In first days, when huge amount of dead were posted, MoD claimed 600 killed and 1.5k wounded. Amount of dead filmed that i saw from those days were about 100-150 killed. 15k dead would mean around 50-70k wounded (with ~40/60 and ~20/80 ratio of wounded to killed), which is half or 2/3rds of total amount of forces that were positioned around Ukraine before 24th of Febr, which will mean that all invading troops were either killed or wounded. Frontline would collapse and Ukrainian troops would have been already in Crimea if this was a case.

 

🇷🇺 MoD personnel casualty statistics:

March 2: 498 KIA, 1591 WIA;

March 25: 1351 KIA, 3825 WIA.

 

The casualties among allied, non-mil and mercenary troops presumably aren't included, as per usual practice nowadays.

All things considered, the figures seem uncharacteristically plausible. Ukrainian extraordinary claims, though, are anything but. Especially considering how easy it would be to back them up with extraordinary evidence if they indeed had any bearing in reality...

 

Even if we are to assume casualty evacuation by means of teleporting stretches and invisible MEDEVACs, the capacity of medical facilities isn't infinite.

 

As to NATO 'intelligence', the assessments of a basically "cheerleading squad" are hardly worth serious consideration by sheer plain default.

 

[Sturgeon]

34 minutes ago, rocketeer said:

 

🇷🇺 MoD personnel casualty statistics:

March 2: 498 KIA, 1591 WIA;

March 25: 1351 KIA, 3825 WIA.

 

The casualties among allied, non-mil and mercenary troops presumably aren't included, as per usual practice nowadays.

All things considered, the figures seem uncharacteristically plausible. Ukrainian extraordinary claims, though, are anything but. Especially considering how easy it would be to back them up with extraordinary evidence if they indeed had any bearing in reality...

 

Even if we are to assume casualty evacuation by means of teleporting stretches and invisible MEDEVACs, the capacity of medical facilities isn't infinite.

 

As to NATO 'intelligence', the assessments of a basically "cheerleading squad" are hardly worth serious consideration by sheer plain default.

 

 

Russian claims are about the same as US casualties during the costliest year of Vietnam, so yeah they seem really plausible to me.

[rocketeer]

2 hours ago, Sturgeon said:

Russian claims are about the same as US casualties during the costliest year of Vietnam, so yeah they seem really plausible to me.

 

*shrug*

 

Your claim in and of itself is invariably¹ based in a gigantic pile of utter horsesh*t, produced by/for Ukrainian side. So yeah, it really seems like something to be taken at face value.

 

I find the claims of Russian MoD plausible, with aforementioned caveats, because a) they match my expectations, and b) i don't any reasons not to trust myself.

 

It's my expectations, after all.

 

¹ — invariably, bc there's next-to-no alternate sources of information.

[LoooSeR]

On 3/25/2022 at 9:18 PM, Varrager said:

You sure its just not visible due to being tipped over? The antenna can also be stowed away:

  Hide contents

Whats visible of the exterior seems to match up to Krasuhka, and I can't find any generators that fit into this form factor myself.

 

This is Krasukha-4 jammer itself. 

Note different shape of box. And note vehicle in the background - this is exactly what is on your picture.

 

Here is same box. Your picture shows command post for Krasukha-4, which is basically some computers and coms to coordinate work of a unit with rest of forces.

 

This is probably closest photo angle to a container claimed to be Krasukha jammer. 

 

Command post inside:

Spoiler

 

So this thing is deffinetly not a claimed jammer. Closest thing this container is looking like is command post for Krasukha-4. Problem is that without pictures from other angles and from inside, it is pretty hard to be sure, because there are plenty of other similarly looking containers with completely different stuff in them:

For example this one is pretty close in shapes and details

 

Spoiler

 

 

 

 

This is what those containers are:

https://pr-t.ru/catalog/bazovye-izdeliya/kuzova-konteynery-postoyannogo-obema/

Quote

UNIFIED CONTAINER BODIES ARE INTENDED FOR CREATING MOBILE AND STATIONARY MODULES FOR TECHNICAL, LOGISTIC, MEDICAL AND OTHER PURPOSE

 

[rocketeer]

Maiden employment of the novel 🇷🇺  'Zemledeliye' remote minelayer system, Kharkov area.

https://youtu.be/p0RIQm92Vqs

 

🇺🇦 'Buk-M1' TELAR gets hit by large-caliber guided projectile around Kiev, with spectacular results.

https://youtu.be/LOhvcjHdTK8

 

 

 

[Sturgeon]

19 hours ago, rocketeer said:

 

*shrug*

 

Your claim in and of itself is invariably¹ based in a gigantic pile of utter horsesh*t, produced by/for Ukrainian side. So yeah, it really seems like something to be taken at face value.

 

I find the claims of Russian MoD plausible, with aforementioned caveats, because a) they match my expectations, and b) i don't any reasons not to trust myself.

 

It's my expectations, after all.

 

¹ — invariably, bc there's next-to-no alternate sources of information.

 

I don't understand, we both find the Russian claims plausible so why are you pointing fingers at me?

[Lord_James]

1 hour ago, Sturgeon said:

 

I don't understand, we both find the Russian claims plausible so why are you pointing fingers at me?

I think he misunderstood what you said. 

[Alzoc]

Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul yesterday are encouraging :

• Russia promised to "drastically" reduce it's activity toward Kiev and Tchernihiv
• Ukraine will accept a neutral and non-nuclear status : No adhesion to NATO or the EU but Kiev asked guarantees for their neutrality to be backed by western nations.
• Status of Crimea and Donbass republics are to be discussed separately at a later date.

https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2022/03/29/guerre-en-ukraine-decathlon-suspend-ses-activites-en-russie-macron-s-entretiendra-avec-poutine-cet-apres-midi-le-point-sur-la-situation_6119575_3210.html?#id-319506

 

Hopefully that will leave an acceptable way out for both party and lead to the end of the war.

Russia will have achieved some of it's objectives (Likely future independence of Donbass republics, Neutrality of Ukraine), and Ukraine will save most of it's territory and most importantly it's independence.

I think it's possible that we may see increased Russian activity in separatist regions in order to push out the Ukrainian units that may still be there at least until a cease-fire is signed.

 

The main questions in the future are how Putin will spin this for the Russian public (probably that they liberated the separatist regions and leave it at that)?

Will the Ukrainian population accept to definitively lose a part of their territory (may be managed by touting that they pushed out the "evil" Russian out of their territory and focus on that)?

 

Most important long term consequence will be, IMHO, that the dollar (and the euro to a lesser extent) will lose confidence as reference money for international trade and that the Yuan will profit from it. This have the potential to severely reduce the ability of the US to enforce it's extraterritorial laws without directly using it's armed forces and in the short term will cause severe inflation (same in the Eurozone).

 

As for Russian resources (mainly natural gas, aluminium, nickel and titanium ore), either they will be definitively lost to Europe and the continent will have to invest in a proper navy to secure it's supply lines (or reopen mines on the continent), or Russia will reopen the gas valves against a lift of the sanctions and Europe (Germany) will go back to sleeping.

[LoooSeR]

2 hours ago, Alzoc said:

Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul yesterday are encouraging :

• Russia promised to "drastically" reduce it's activity toward Kiev and Tchernihiv
• Ukraine will accept a neutral and non-nuclear status : No adhesion to NATO or the EU but Kiev asked guarantees for their neutrality to be backed by western nations.
• Status of Crimea and Donbass republics are to be discussed separately at a further date.

 

1. This is effectively statement of fact. 2 possibilities - either Kiev operation was attempt to put pressure on Ukrainian leadership to make them surrender, or it was distrcting attack to suck in number of enemy troops.

2. This is just statements of intentions, this is not an agreement. Even if it will be put on paper, Ukrainian can exit a building where they signed it and claims "ain't doing that!" like they did with Minsk agreement. I have strong suspicion that all this dimplomacy stuff is mostly a show for both sides.

3. Nothing changed and unlikely to change until current leadership of Ukraine is in power. Taking into account recent banning of 11 opposition parties, the only way to change them is by force.

 

2 hours ago, Alzoc said:

Hopefully that will leave an acceptable way out for both party and lead to the end of the war.

This war will take several more months and then even more months of special operations (like on North Caucausus) to clear 99% of opposition forces from taken territory. Negotiations are unlikely to produce any satisfactory results for both sides for quite some time.

 

 

2 hours ago, Alzoc said:

Russia will have achieved some of it's objectives (Likely future independence of Donbass republics, Neutrality of Ukraine), and Ukraine will save most of it's territory and most importantly it's independence.

I think it's possible that we may see increased Russian activity in separatist regions in order to push out the Ukrainian units that may still be there at least until a cease-fire is signed.

Significant amount of our forces and armor was already spotted moving in from North and south directions of bult of UAF forces in Donbas (In directions of Izyum and Volnovakha).

 

Kupyansk town (in direction of Izyum):

 

To roughly Volnovakha region:

 

Spoiler

 

 

 

 

UAF have around 50-70k troops there as i heard, they are major forces and needs to be dealt with if Russian forces want to continue operation. Frontlines are way to long and attacking country with limited amount of troops in 6 directions in the same time is going to be costly.

 

2 hours ago, Alzoc said:

The main questions in the future is how Putin will spin this for the Russian public (probably that they liberated the separatist regions and leave it at that)?

   News were met with anger in military related groups on the net, which is understandable after videof of Ukrainians executing our POWs. Cool heads are waiting to see what happends next. Remember, in Syria Russia claimed to withdraw troops back in 2016, and you see how "decrease of activity" in Syria worked out - most important battles against ISIS and operations in Western Syria were completed.

[harrier4484]

He wont spin it he just wont allow it to be shown.

[LoooSeR]

On 3/29/2022 at 10:40 PM, harrier4484 said:

He wont spin it he just wont allow it to be shown.

This is incredibly stupid post. Still have places to reach, as this is not most stupid thing that was posted in this thread.

[Dominus Dolorem]

On 3/29/2022 at 7:51 PM, LoooSeR said:

 

1. This is effectively statement of fact. 2 possibilities - either Kiev operation was attempt to put pressure on Ukrainian leadership to make them surrender, or it was distrcting attack to suck in number of enemy troops.

2. This is just statements of intentions, this is not an agreement. Even if it will be put on paper, Ukrainian can exit a building where they signed it and claims "ain't doing that!" like they did with Minsk agreement. I have strong suspicion that all this dimplomacy stuff is mostly a show for both sides.

3. Nothing changed and unlikely to change until current leadership of Ukraine is in power. Taking into account recent banning of 11 opposition parties, the only way to change them is by force.

 

This war will take several more months and then even more months of special operations (like on North Caucausus) to clear 99% of opposition forces from taken territory. Negotiations are unlikely to produce any satisfactory results for both sides for quite some time.

 

 

Significant amount of our forces and armor was already spotted moving in from North and south directions of bult of UAF forces in Donbas (In directions of Izyum and Volnovakha).

 

Kupyansk town (in direction of Izyum):

 

To roughly Volnovakha region:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

 

 

UAF have around 50-70k troops there as i heard, they are major forces and needs to be dealt with if Russian forces want to continue operation. Frontlines are way to long and attacking country with limited amount of troops in 6 directions in the same time is going to be costly.

 

   News were met with anger in military related groups on the net, which is understandable after videof of Ukrainians executing our POWs. Cool heads are waiting to see what happends next. Remember, in Syria Russia claimed to withdraw troops back in 2016, and you see how "decrease of activity" in Syria worked out - most important battles against ISIS and operations in Western Syria were completed.

Do you believe that the Russian government will replace the puppet regime with a pro Russian one or perhaps annex Ukraine?

[LoooSeR]

11 minutes ago, Dominus Dolorem said:

Do you believe that the Russian government will replace the puppet regime with a pro Russian one or perhaps annex Ukraine?

No. From first days of this war it was obvious that our political leadership is not trying to kill Ukrainian politicians.

[Dominus Dolorem]

1 hour ago, LoooSeR said:

No. From first days of this war it was obvious that our political leadership is not trying to kill Ukrainian politicians.

Strange, what do believe their objectives to be?

 

[LoooSeR]

On current situation overal and near Kiev in particular:

 

Quote

Igor Strelkov

 

Reflections on the situation in the Kyiv-Chernihiv region.

 

   I note right away: I DO NOT HAVE reliable operational information from there (unlike Donbass) (although, of course, I have some from direct participants, but it is "late" by several days in time and does not always have value from the point of view of " presentation of the big picture).

At the same time, some general considerations "drew" with a fairly high degree of certainty.

 

   1. As I have repeatedly noted - an operation with a "throw to Kyiv" (both along the Right Bank - landing on Gostomel and a strike group through the "Chernobyl zone", and on the Left Bank - past Chernigov and Sumy along the "guts" - to Brovary) - It was built on the basis of an initially and fundamentally incorrect calculation for panic and a quick capitulation of the Kiev authorities in the event of a threat to their military-political center, and also on the belief that "the Armed Forces of Ukraine will behave as in the 14th."

   Based on this, the troops were given the task of "going forward as quickly as possible, without looking back for what is left behind." And the troops kept going. Which already in the first few days of the operation led to large and unjustified losses in people and equipment - as a result of enemy attacks on unguarded rear columns on unprotected communications.

   Having reached the outskirts of Kyiv and "bogged down" in heavy urban battles in its "satellites" - Russian troops quickly lost both the "tempo of the operation" and - over time - the ability to move forward at all. 

   It was not possible to complete the blockade of Kyiv - the available forces and means for this turned out to be acutely insufficient. The resistance of the enemy was growing, forcing the formation of a more or less continuous front line in order to cover the rear from enemy raid operations (weakening, at the same time, assault groups). In fact, the groups of the RF Armed Forces (both to the west of Kyiv and to the east) have become like "mushrooms" - with massive "hats" on thin fragile legs. At the same time, the Right-bank (western) group does not have a real logistical connection with the Left-bank - due to the lack of bridges across the Dnieper. - Some bridges (in Kyiv) - failed to be captured, others - remained in the rear in Gomel [Belarus]. In such a situation, maneuvering forces between groups turned out to be impossible, which weakens their strike capabilities and creates the threat of defeat from an enemy capable of rapidly maneuvering forces through the most powerful Kiev transport hub (at one time - near Moscow, in the winter of 1941 - Wehrmacht faced exactly the same problem).

 

   Meanwhile, the area of operations of the Right bank grouping itself is located in a wooded and swampy region, relatively poor in normal roads and other infrastructure, which seriously complicates the supply of Russian troops bogged down in heavy battles.

   2. Now - when the calculation of "success in a swift attack" turned out to be untenable - the Russian command faced a logical question: "what to do next in a situation where there are no forces to successfully attack, but there are no forces to successfully defend the captured huge area either"? Moreover, in 2-3 weeks (depending on the weather) - this whole wooded area will "turn green" and the enemy's sabotage teams will significantly increase their impact on communications?

 

   There could be two answers to this question:

1) "We will hold on to what we have taken with our teeth in the hope of a quick approach of reserves!"

2) Since it "failed" with the offensive - in time (not waiting for the enemy to take advantage of the mistakes made and organize a counteroffensive) - withdraw the troops "stuck in a dead end" from the resulting "bag" in order to use them on others - more promising - directions.

 

   Political arguments "scream" for the first option (in civil wars they are very, very weighty): the retreat of the RF Armed Forces from Kyiv inevitably means a sharp rise in the enemy's morale, the emergence of confidence that "Russians can be beaten."
   For the second - military expediency reaching an urgent need. After all, the reserves necessary to turn the operation in their favor, which could be additionally transferred "from the mainland" - are not at the disposal of the command. THEY SIMPLY ARE NOT AVALIABLE. It is impossible to remove troops from other directions (where the "offensive with spread fingers" was carried out in exactly the same way). And the preparation of new units and formations - in any case, will take considerable time (from 2 or more weeks - and this is with the most primitive approach, such as: "caught, gathered, put into operation and driven into battle without the slightest training and combat coordination").

In the current situation, in my opinion, the command of the RF Armed Forces made the only right decision. Since if the abandonment of the occupied territory is inevitable anyway, it is better to do this without first defeating your troops by the enemy.

 

The troops will still be useful to us - the war will be long...

 

   Well, the fact that the defeat (the forced withdrawal of troops from the previously expensively paid lives of soldiers and officers of the liberated territory) still "takes place" is a bitter fact, but not fatal. In the history of Russia, in general, there are very few wars in which such "incidents" were not present due to the outstanding bungling of the generals. The main thing is that the defeats do not go "in non-stop mode" and are again replaced by victories.

 

[LoooSeR]

6 hours ago, Dominus Dolorem said:

Strange, what do believe their objectives to be?

Exact objectives - IDK, i think even they don't know them (specific victory condition).

[watch_your_fire]

On 3/29/2022 at 8:50 AM, Alzoc said:

Most important long term consequence will be, IMHO, that the dollar (and the euro to a lesser extent) will lose confidence as reference money for international trade and that the Yuan will profit from it.

Also, Russian internet has been separated from the west in a lot of ways.

https://www.keyfactor.com/blog/russia-creates-its-own-certificate-authority-ca-to-issue-tls-certificates/

 

Massive players like Facebook basically blocking Russians from using their services will have the unintended consequence of making non-american social media much more competitive within Russia and asia in general.

 

[Lord_James]

“Cold War 2: electric boogaloo” incoming… fuck…