Ukrainian Civil War Thread: All Quiet on the Sturgeon Front

[LoooSeR]

10 hours ago, Cobras said:

When was the last one and what were the casualties numbers? If you don't mind ofc, cuz it's kinda hard for me to find it since I don't know any russian.

Last time MoD published info about casualties on 25.03. 1350 killed, 3800 wounded. 

 

Previously they did same on 2.03, 498 killed and 1597 wounded.

[Cobras]

6 hours ago, LoooSeR said:

Last time MoD published info about casualties on 25.03. 1350 killed, 3800 wounded. 

 

Previously they did same on 2.03, 498 killed and 1597 wounded.

Oh I thought they update it more regularly, thanks anyway. So, they should give an updated casualty report in 2 days or so, if they keep the same interval.

Decent article about the recent situation: https://southfront.org/strike-on-moskva-missile-cruiser-is-only-precursor-to-change-in-military-situation-in-region/

[Alzoc]

Some of you probably already saw the images but the fire (or at least the smoke generated) on the Moskva was visible from orbit :

 

 

Pictures were taken from an environment monitoring satellite from the Sentinel-1 constellation.

Same satellite took pictures of two Russian ships formations leaving from Sevastopol two days later :

 

 

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/04/satellite-image-pinpoints-russian-cruiser-moskva-as-she-burned/

[watch_your_fire]

Not my image, IDK why there's a T-64 in there

Anyway, what's up here?

[watch_your_fire]

Nvm figured it out. Someone was passing that image around twitter but I think it's just a bad angle

Still weird cuz it looks like a 3 layer rather than 5 layer glacis

[Cobras]

1 hour ago, watch_your_fire said:

Nvm figured it out. Someone was passing that image around twitter but I think it's just a bad angle

Still weird cuz it looks like a 3 layer rather than 5 layer glacis

It can be 3 layer cuz the T-80BVMs are upgraded T-80B\BVs

[Alzoc]

Map of NATO (+Sweden) recon flights around Ukraine from April 1st to the 14th :

 

Combine that with satellite informations, and apart from the ones in North-East of Ukraine (Which is probably out of sensor range) most Russian battle groups must be pretty much tracked in real time...

 

 

[watch_your_fire]

9 hours ago, Cobras said:

It can be 3 layer cuz the T-80BVMs are upgraded T-80B\BVs

But it was a T-80U instead of a BVM I think.

My thoughts are that the explosion may have made the filler fly out

[Cobras]

28 minutes ago, watch_your_fire said:

But it was a T-80U instead of a BVM I think.

My thoughts are that the explosion may have made the filler fly out

Yeah, it looks like a T-80U '86 that lost the lower 2 layers.

[Żółć]

Pics of Moscow before sinking. 

 

[LoooSeR]

Photos and screengrabs from battle for Mariupol. As it getting near the end, here is bunch of photos done during 2-ish months of combat for this city.

One of roads to Mariupol

 

Spoiler

 

Budget Cuts 3M with "Kalibri" written on the cannon barrel.

 

 

 

Bunch of T-80BVs somewhere outside of Mariupol.

 

DPR artillery shelling industrial area of Mariupol, where main forces of UAF and Azov found a shelter

 

 

 

BRM-1K inside of residential area of the city

 

Jihaded with ZU-23-2 MT-LB armored tractor

 

 

BTR-82A of the RuAF

 

Akatsiya 152mm SPG in Mariupol. In few cases was filmed doing direct fire missions, SAA Republican guards used it in the same way in Jobar and Zamalka, for example.

 

DPR troopers

 

Spoiler

 

Marsman and i guess a close call

 

 

DPR troops, possibly from 9th assault regiment of People Militia of DPR.

 

 

 

DPR troops between fighting

 

 

Russian Marines in Mariupol

 

DPR soldiers and a tea brake

 

Chechen fighter of the Rosgvardia, callsigh "Akhmat-1"

 

Rosgvardia checkpoint on Mariupol outskirts. Noticeable number of UAF and Azov members were found on those checkpoints at some point before enemy switched to less sneaky and more violent attempts to flee from Mariupol

 

 

Spoiler

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Iliych factory where big number of Ukrainian army soldiers were located for some time during battle for Mariupol. Recently they tried to breakthrough, but failed a little more than 1000 of them surrendered.

 

Spoiler

Inside of Iliych factory

 

POWs

 

 

Mariupol sea port, crews of ships getting evacuated. They were stuck in their ships and couldn't leave sea port on their ships because of sea mines Ukrainians put

 

 

Residential area and sea port from space...

 

.. and from a drone

 

Near Azovstal factory

 

Azovstal factory itself. Have bomb shelters build in Soviet times.

 

Russian soldiers in Mariupol

 

 

Civilians being evacuated. In the video one of them wished a good luck to soldiers.

 

SFs

 

 

Chechens and a trophy

 

 

 

DPR and Rosgvardia member from Chechnya

 

Budget Cuts 3M with DPR crew AFAIK and a flag they found

 

 

One of main streets of the city leading to Azovstal'

 

 

 

[Alzoc]

France may have delivered (or will deliver) Caesar SPG to Ukraine according to this interview of Macron :

 

Quote

We still deliver important equipments, from Milan ATGM to César and several others weapon systems.

 

The interview is of course strongly coloured by the second turn of the presidential election coming up on Sunday, but it is actually one of the first official confirmation about what kind of weapons we are actually sending. So far everything about military aid was kept deliberately vague, some says it was in order to avoid further inflaming Russia and keep the possibility of negotiations open. It may have been true in the first week or two of the conflict but right now I don't see the conflict ending until either one side has suffered unsustainable attrition or Russia has managed to secure a token victory in the Donbass. Another theory is that we don't really have any spare heavy military equipment in good enough shape to send (Old stuff that the Ukrainian army doesn't know how to operate and can't maintain because there are no spare parts has only limited value as I was saying in another topic).

 

Back to the Caesar, cynicism aside it will be a good test of how a wheeled SPG with only light armor handle high intensity warfare. It won't necessary be an accurate one since I don't know how much training the Ukrainians received on the system and I don't know if the Caesar can plug into the Ukrainian artillery network (or if it will have to go without anything at all) but results will still be interesting to watch. I think the Cezch Republic also sent Danna wheeled SPG but I don't know if there has been any report on how they performed yet.

[Lord_James]

@LoooSeR, you stated some time earlier that one of the reasons the Russian army can’t send more troops to Ukraine is because they might have to take them from the Chinese border. Is there a problem with the border that us foreigners wouldn’t know about? 

[mr.T]

It looks like Russians started destroying bridges over Dnieper river which will make it hard for Ukrainians to get supplies, reinforcements and all the donated armor into the combat zone at all . River Dnieper is quite wide natural obstacle getting stuff over with pontoons is slow. But part of Russian troops that is on the other side faces similar problem should any of the 3 bridges they control be hit

 

 

 

 

 

[LoooSeR]

16 hours ago, Lord_James said:

@LoooSeR, you stated some time earlier that one of the reasons the Russian army can’t send more troops to Ukraine is because they might have to take them from the Chinese border. Is there a problem with the border that us foreigners wouldn’t know about? 

It wasn't me who said that. I don't know about Chinese birder problems, this part of Russia is quite calm. Only region that might generate problems are Central Asia, islamists, Afghanistan-related.

[Lord_James]

I should stop late night posting, my bad. 

[Volke]

Well, we have first pics of T-90M in Ukraine, screengrab from Rosgvardia vid around Kharkiv.

[LoooSeR]

Apperently we finally started to hit Ukrainian logistics. I have no idea why it was started only now, 2 months after war started.

 

Quote

Map of confirmed Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian railway traction substations, according to Ukrzaliznitsa reports.
The map shows the main electrified routes

 

Quote

Russian Armed Forces hit 7 traction substations in western Ukraine. We analyzed messages and data from open sources.

 

Apparently, the morning strikes were inflicted on 7 traction substations:

 

▪️Zdolbunov-traction (trains stopped in the Dubno area, and this is the service area of this particular station. In addition, the train was delayed to Kovel)

▪️Kazatin-2 (confirmed)

▪️Red (Verified)

▪️Podolskaya-dead-end (confirmed)

▪️Sknilov (the trains stopped on the DC line, the output of one Red would not be enough)

▪️Slavuta (indirectly confirmed by the decommissioning of the entire branch in the service area of the Zdolbuniv and Slavuta stations)

▪️Fastov (Verified)

 

   Thus, the task of partially paralyzing the railway network of western Ukraine has now been completed. This is unpleasant, it will create congestion, force the use of electric locomotives, but it can be solved in the medium term. The work must continue.

 

Quote

The result of today's "Kalibration" of the railway station "Krasne" in the Lvov region of Ukraine.

 

Quote

Pavlovgrad raidroad intersection/station that got hit by cruise missiles

[LoooSeR]

And Mariupol

 

In Azovstal factory:

 

Spoiler

 

[LoooSeR]

Donbass region - for several years UAF was building positions and strongholds. Examples of them:

 

Quote

UAF positions around Popasnaya village in Lugansk region. Note amount of trenches both for infantry and vehicles.

 

 

Spoiler

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A bit 18+ in the video

https://t.me/izvestia/86654

Destroyed and captured strongholds:

 

Spoiler

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://vk.com/video-123538639_456281094

Near Checkpoint 29 in Lugansk region. Shows one of long term position made out of concrete, with thick armored/steel doors.

 

Spoiler

 

 

 

 

18+ in the video

https://vk.com/video-123538639_456281093

Trenches and other positions inside of village and under houses.

 

Spoiler

 

 

[Alzoc]

Russia trying to manufacture a casus beli in Transinistria?

 

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220426-moldova-security-talks-on-blasts-in-russia-backed-region

 

On top of that Russian forces just struck the bridge which is the only route allowing to go from Odessa to the region of Zakota (maps) without going through Moldavia.

 

 

Russia has some troops in Transinistria guarding a stockpile of some 20 000 tons of old soviet ammunitions and equipment.

No idea if the troops there are numerous enough and have enough equipment to invade the now cut-off south-west Ukrainian coast or if the objective is to land in the south-west and then invade Transinistria with the reinforcements.

 

Either way I didn't believed it when I saw some rumours that Russia wanted to invade the entire Ukrainian coast and cut them off from the sea completely. But given the recent events it may be a possibility. The question is of course can Russia even afford to open another front that could only be resupplied by the sea (and probably with difficulty since there is no heavy port infrastructure in the region). They previously struggled with too many fronts open at the same time and had to withdraw and regroup in the Donbass and now they want to extend the frontline and open a new front?

[mr.T]

1000-1500 man garrison in Transnistria is to small to even protect themselves let alone engage in Invasion.

 

Ukrainian minister actually called for Ukrainian forces on twitter to make an incursion and capture these troops to use for exchange of POWs or something like that.

[Alzoc]

The EU is planning to send military aid to Moldavia within this year, in case it become a case of Ukraine invasion 2.0

The question is with what stock, given that almost everybody is already scrapping the bottom of the drawers to find stuff for Ukraine.

 

Heck apparently even the US already gave about 25% of their Stingers stock (and 1/3rd of their Javelins) to Ukraine and they can't manufacture more immediately since the production lines have either stopped or need time to ramp up to full scale production. For the Stinger some components aren't even produced anymore and replacement will have to be found.

[Volke]

First T-90M confirmed to be lost in combat, nearly 2 weeks since first spotting the type in the field.

[Beer]

After the Bayraktars disabled the AD of the Zmijinyi island in previous strikes they did this with a pair of Su-27 carrying heavier ordonance. There must be barely anything left on the island and I personally don't see the Russian to try to hold it anymore. Watch till the end.