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Ukrainian Civil War Thread: All Quiet on the Sturgeon Front


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16 hours ago, Beer said:

After the Bayraktars disabled the AD of the Zmijinyi island in previous strikes they did this with a pair of Su-27 carrying heavier ordonance. There must be barely anything left on the island and I personally don't see the Russian to try to hold it anymore. Watch till the end. 

 

 

Sasha Kots, military journalists who is currently working somewhere around Izyum in his telegram:

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Let's close the issue once and for all.

 

▪️After the mechanical failure of the Tor air defense system on the island, a decision was made to withdraw the RF Armed Forces.

▪️Ukrainian Su-27s are working on empty fortifications. The bombs were dropped at extremely low altitudes and unprofessionally: the second aircraft miraculously remained intact.

▪️The second video shows the destruction of one of the Ukrainian Mi-8s by Russian forces. The Bayraktar TB2 UAV filmed and transmitted a beautiful picture of the victorious landing to the Ukrainian command post.

But something went wrong.

▪️Both videos are now being used for propaganda purposes, creating a false picture. Recording your own Mi-8 with landing troops as Russian losses is some kind of the highest degree of Ukrainian military perversion.

 

Oh, and more:
 

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In the area of Snake Island, a Ukrainian Su-24 bomber, a Su-27 fighter, three Mi-8 helicopters with troops and two Bayraktar-TB2 unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down in the air. The Ukrainian assault boat "Stanislav" was also destroyed.

Would like to see a video of that for confirmation. 

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2 hours ago, LoooSeR said:

 

Sasha Kots, military journalists who is currently working somewhere around Izyum in his telegram:

 

Oh, and more:
 

Would like to see a video of that for confirmation. 

 

That obviously isn't true. 

 

The island was not deserted which is clearly proven by the fact that there is a lot of secondary explosions from stored ammo and that two more Raptor crafts were hit around the island afterwards. The statement about mechanical failure of a Tor launcher is also good only for someone who didn't see the footage. Overall it was at least two Tors, one Strela 10M and two ZU-23-2 destroyed on the island by the strikes preparing the way for the Su-27 strike. 

 

Since this part of the statement is obviously untrue I don't see any reason why the rest shall be true.   

 

Also even the Wagner's RSOFM telegram stated that the destroyed helicopter was Russian and that the island was deserted only afterwards. 

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9 hours ago, Beer said:

 

That obviously isn't true. 

 

The island was not deserted which is clearly proven by the fact that there is a lot of secondary explosions from stored ammo and that two more Raptor crafts were hit around the island afterwards. The statement about mechanical failure of a Tor launcher is also good only for someone who didn't see the footage. Overall it was at least two Tors, one Strela 10M and two ZU-23-2 destroyed on the island by the strikes preparing the way for the Su-27 strike. 

 

Since this part of the statement is obviously untrue I don't see any reason why the rest shall be true.   

 

Also even the Wagner's RSOFM telegram stated that the destroyed helicopter was Russian and that the island was deserted only afterwards. 

Yeah, but this version is what is running around here. Saw RSOTM post. Still claims bunch of UAF birds shot down, and i still want to see a video of that, if it exist or if it actually even happened.

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19 hours ago, Beer said:

 

That obviously isn't true. 

 

The island was not deserted which is clearly proven by the fact that there is a lot of secondary explosions from stored ammo and that two more Raptor crafts were hit around the island afterwards. The statement about mechanical failure of a Tor launcher is also good only for someone who didn't see the footage. Overall it was at least two Tors, one Strela 10M and two ZU-23-2 destroyed on the island by the strikes preparing the way for the Su-27 strike. 

 

Since this part of the statement is obviously untrue I don't see any reason why the rest shall be true.   

 

Also even the Wagner's RSOFM telegram stated that the destroyed helicopter was Russian and that the island was deserted only afterwards. 

 

“Unfortunately, we are forced to state that the video of the destruction of the Mi-8AMTSh from Zmeiny Island is not the result of the work of the RF Armed Forces. This is a Russian helicopter destroyed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

 

The board was assigned to the 487th separate helicopter regiment. The deputy commander of the regiment for military-political work was also killed. Eternal memory to the fallen.

 

The island is now in a gray area."

 

They are even worse than i thought before.

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   Probably soon-ish will do another effort post, because one that i made earlier have outdated section (boy that part aged like milk). Plus situation changed significantly. Donbass became 1943 Kursk bulge-like battle, 2 months of barrely any changes in frontline/territory control and other aspects are kind of bizzare, needed a bit time to digest all that. I guess it will mark another "milestone" of this conflict in my mind.

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Ukraine released alleged leaked documents from Russian 1st guards tank army concerning unit losses as of 15th March. The documents seems to be legit. 

https://gur.gov.ua/content/do-seredyny-bereznia-zdalysia-v-polon-blyzko-sta-rosiiskykh-tankistiv.html

 

It shows rather low number of casualties in comparison with absolutely stunning vehicle losses. I remember the 1st GTA lost huge number of vehicles in its initial push just being stuck in mud or running out of fuel which is confirmed by the document. 

 

Anyway the total number of casualties after 3 weeks of fighting was 61 KIA, 209 WIA, 44 MIA, 96 POW. Altogether 410. 

 

The number of lost tanks per unit during the same period. Overal it's 125 tanks. 

1st tank regiment, 2nd motorrifle division: 45 T-72B3 obr.2016 (of 93!)

12th tank regiment, 4th guards tank division: 18 T-80U

13th tank regiment, 4th guards tank division: 47 T-80UE (of 83!)

423rd motorrifle regiment, 4th guards tank division: 6 T-80BV

27th motorized rifle brigade: 9 T-90A 

 

This status is from just days before another defeat in the battle of Trostianec which caused another large losses followed by retreat from the whole Sumy and Chernigiv regions. Also if we go by the number of T-80U/UE tanks from this time period showed on Oryx's blog we can see that the actual number of losses is even higher than listed by him.  

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On 5/17/2022 at 1:26 AM, Jägerlein said:

@LoooSeR: Can you give some info about what's in the russian media right now about PoW exchange or whatever in Mariupol? Thx in advance!

I don't follow Russian media. Judging by general people view on a subject shown online, most people want Azov to be in jail and not exchanged for anybody.

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45 minutes ago, LoooSeR said:

I don't follow Russian media. Judging by general people view on a subject shown online, most people want Azov to be in jail and not exchanged for anybody.

I think time already answered the question.When I wrote my post it was still uncertain if it's an exchange of wounded soldiers, a general exchange or Azov(stal) capitulating. 

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If it works, it works. No reason to have a whole camera development program and production line when you can get the job done with off the shelf components. This camera is produced in giant numbers and I don't think Canon could keep them out of Russia no matter how hard they would try.

 

This morning, Russia is reportedly assaulting Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. We'll see how that goes for them.

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Yeah, Euro's and the Pope call to save the Nazi's.  Is honestly not something I ever expected to see again......

 

 

Nor the west rehashing the good ole favorite  hit pieces like this.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/03/10/russia-reportedly-blocks-ukrainian-evacuation-route-with-air-dropped-butterfly-mines/?sh=495940e71a32

 

https://www.newsweek.com/russians-reportedly-planting-bombs-ukraine-that-look-like-toys-1685761

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Story on how Russia needed to dig T-62 out of storage seems to be confirmed.

T-62M spotted at Melitopol train station :

 

 

Will probably either be used by occupation units or handed-over to separatists. Either way, it probably mean that there aren't many better machines left in storage and that they must keep them for the main forces. Which raise the question on how many tanks among the many thousands in storage are still in reasonable working order or can be refurbished.

 

Regardless on the way this war will end, it seem that reconstituting Russian forces will be a tall order (especially without access to modern semi-conductors and other parts).

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