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Sturgeon's House

Ukrainian Civil War Thread: All Quiet on the Sturgeon Front


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6 hours ago, Alzoc said:

2 (3) parts ammo for the rifled 120 mm of the Challenger 2 will be hard to procure (I don't know if the UK are even still producing them).

I think India is still producing rifled 120mm ammo for Arjun, with some.... colourful product names

https://preview.redd.it/sjatncjw9v071.jpg?auto=webp&s=0bf49b7ef7a742873442e996d67a45906cdefe83

6 hours ago, Alzoc said:

14 Challenger 2 is in itself a token amount. But it send a political signal toward Germany asking them to authorize Leopard 2 transfer and sales.

Definitely why the Brits are sending them, yeah.

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So what do you guys think is the real reason Germany is hesitating to allow Leopard 2s in Ukraine?

 

1) Fear of the Russians acquiring German tech?

2) Fear of the Russians escalating things toward nuclear warfare?

3) Fear of outward image based on ghosts of the past "German tanks once again rolling across the eastern plains"? 

4) Fear of lost future sales if pictures of destroyed Leopard 2s start emerging? Or wether it will perform well enough?

5) Backstage financial agreement with Russia (i.e. money talks)

6) Germany actually wanting the war to drag on, as it might benefit their weapons industry? (again money talks)

 

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On 1/21/2023 at 7:26 PM, Pardus said:

So what do you guys think is the real reason Germany is hesitating to allow Leopard 2s in Ukraine?

 

1) Fear of the Russians acquiring German tech?

2) Fear of the Russians escalating things toward nuclear warfare?

3) Fear of outward image based on ghosts of the past "German tanks once again rolling across the eastern plains"? 

4) Fear of lost future sales if pictures of destroyed Leopard 2s start emerging? Or wether it will perform well enough?

5) Backstage financial agreement with Russia (i.e. money talks)

6) Germany actually wanting the war to drag on, as it might benefit their weapons industry? (again money talks)

 

1 and 2 are not worth even look at. 3 - to a degree, but not much. 4 - i suspect this is one of reasons, but there could be more to this.

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On 1/21/2023 at 9:26 AM, Pardus said:

So what do you guys think is the real reason Germany is hesitating to allow Leopard 2s in Ukraine?

 

1) Fear of the Russians acquiring German tech?

2) Fear of the Russians escalating things toward nuclear warfare?

3) Fear of outward image based on ghosts of the past "German tanks once again rolling across the eastern plains"? 

4) Fear of lost future sales if pictures of destroyed Leopard 2s start emerging? Or wether it will perform well enough?

5) Backstage financial agreement with Russia (i.e. money talks)

6) Germany actually wanting the war to drag on, as it might benefit their weapons industry? (again money talks)

 

7). Bundestag politics are such that even if Germany wants to do something militarily, it can be a multi year process before anything happens.

Seriously, they have been trying to retire their Tornadoes for 10 years with no progress.

I think they want to send Leopards but the typical German obsession with rule following means that they can only do it "the right way", whatever that means.

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Update:

Seems like a joint deal between the US & Germany has been reached, where M1A2 Abrams & Leopard 2A5 AND 2A6 tanks are sent to Ukraine. What I've heard so far is that Germany is intending to send 25 Leopard 2A5's, whilst the number of 2A6's hasn't been mentioned. Not sure how many M1A2 Abrams will be sent either.

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You forgot the ad point 7

7. where the fuck do we get new tanks.

 

US has been playing the Euros like a fiddle , instead of donating Abrams that is actually available in thousands , its forcing europeans to divest of their meager stocks ,  Britain , France, Germany each have only about 200 MBTs and no capacity to produce more in near term. Even US M1 that will be going to Ukraine will be on a very slow boat , new manufactured months after Leo2 start burning up 

If you google up supply so far US supplied almost no heavy armor nor SPG artilery , NATO europe is practically divested of artillery ,Denmark has no single piece left due to Ukraine supply.

 

4. is being set up , as unlike what folks imagine most of these tanks are fairly old A4 models that is armored even less than T72 monkey models and will go up in flames same as any other , its not like we are seeing tank duels , its mostly mines,ATGMS and artillery wrecking tanks.  

 

2023-01-23-23h07-30.png

Great article on how US is making best of oprotunity to wipeout German competition on international arms markets.

https://www.nzz.ch/international/kampfpanzer-leopard-2-us-ruestungsinteressen-lassen-scholz-zoegern-ld.1722377

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I’d wager it’s that everyone is already at their industrial limits, and to busy to repair and refurbish extra vehicles to send. They might have the money, and technically have the resources, but not the capacity to take advantage of that AND fulfill their preexisting obligations. 

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Yes but US has stocks of old stuff that can be upgraded and sold or just supplied in short order , while in Europe they have been cutting Armored vehicles and tanks up into scrap metal since 1991 . One KMW owned junkyard alone cut over 17.000 armored vehicles since 1991

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