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Syrian conflict.


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It is possible that SAA now is trying to cut islamists inside of Aleppo from rest of Aleppo province and road to idlib province.

 

Jihadists hold their ground as the Syrian Army attempts to advance in northern Aleppo

 

 

  The Syrian Armed Forces attempted to advance in northern Aleppo countryside on Monday after a successful weekend that resulted in the capture of two imperative parts of the Al-Malaah Farms. 

 
   Despite the intensity of their assault on Monday, the Syrian Arab Army’s “Tiger Forces” were unable to seize the southern farms of Al-Malaah after several hours of fighting the jihadist rebels of Jabhat Al-Nusra (Syrian Al-Qaeda group) and Nouriddeen Al-Zinki. 
 
   Once the Tiger Forces were unable to seize the southern farms of Al-Malaah, they decided to withdraw north in order to avoid any more casualties. However, the battle for northern Aleppo is far from over for the Tiger Forces and their allies, as they look to capture all of Al-Malaah Farms from the jihadist rebels.

 

 

Syrian Democratic Forces make huge strides in Menbeij

 

 

The U.S. backed “Syrian Democratic Forces” (SDF), backed by Coalition airstrikes, captured several sites inside Menbeij on Monday, leaving the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS) with their backs against the wall near the city-center. 

 
   According to the High Command of the Syrian Democratic Forces, their units began the day by capturing the Al-Hawatimah and Al-Haram neighborhoods in northern Menbij, killing several terrorists in the process. 
 
   Following the advance in the northern district, the Syrian Democratic Forces captured the Al-Hawani neighborhood in southewest Menbeij after Coalition airstrikes fractured the Islamic State’s front-lines.
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Syrian Army recovers all lost points during the ISIS offensive in east Homs

 

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  On Monday, the Syrian Arab Army’s 3rd Division, backed by the National Defense Forces (NDF) and Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP), restored all the points they lost to the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS) on Sunday night in the Quraytayn countryside. 

 
   According to an Al-Masdar field correspondent, the Syrian Arab Army’s 3rd Division withdrew from some points near the Al-Muhassah Mountains in southeast Homs after poor visibility left them susceptible to VBIED attacks by the Islamic State terrorists. 
 
   However, the following morning, the Syrian Arab Army’s 3rd Division and their allies launched a counter-offensive that proved to be successful, as they recaptured all of the territory they lost in the Al-Muhassah Mountains of southeast Homs. 
 
   The Islamic State has attempted repeatedly to advance in this area of the Homs Governorate after losing the imperative town of Quraytayn in March 2016; all attacks have been repelled by the Syrian Armed Forces.
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Pics from areas liberated by #SAA in Mallah farms #Aleppo

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Jaish al-Islam published video show targeting of #SAA Helicopter over #Ghouta with #Osa SAM system, missile missed ?

Video

 

So it means that second captured Osa SAM was repaired.

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Also, ISIS conducted attack on christian villages in Al-Qaa yesterday. 

 

8 suicide bombings hit Lebanon's al-Qaa town in less than 24 hrs. 2 of them outside a church.

 

 

Looks like ISIS is trying to take over Lebanon's alQaa, town bordering Syria, by driving Christians out.

Lebanese Army vowed to take action.

 

 

Hezbollah targeting ISIS positions following a wave of suicide attacks on Lebanon's al-Qaa.

 

 

Lebanese Army deployed in al-Qaa which was hit again by several suicide bombers #Lebanon

Photos,  NSFW

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   So about Oryx article.

http://spioenkop.blogspot.ru/2016/06/no-end-in-sight-failed-tabqa-offensive.html

 

   In short - that push was gamble from beginning. This was obvious for some otvaga forum members (Syrian thread there is best one in Runet), as they pointed at the how whole situation in Western Syria is not prepared for any serious attacks. Syrian army have very long frontlines along several long ISIS "tentacles" with exposed flanks, where they need to keep forces to avoid ISIS just taking empty hills, villages, etc.

 

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   Look at a situation on the southern part of Palmyra-Qaratyan line. And note ISIS "bulge" between supply highway to Aleppo and Palmyra. Basically, ISIS can hit any part along those frontlines, and almost any of which are important for Syria in one or another way. Which means that any massive push to ISIS can be countered by counter-attack in areas either between Palmyra and Qaratyan (to cut Tadmor from rest of Syria), or they can push to Aleppo supply highway, attack Itria and crossroads near it to cut Aleppo.

 

   All this mean that Syrians need to keep big number of forces in those areas, or overwatching those areas. Which means that not much forces could have been used for Tabqa push, and that is what happened - forces from Aleppo and Lattakia were used (Suqur al-Sahara, for example, were moved from Lattakia frontline) and still their numbers were 2-3 times lower, that during Palmyra offencive.

 

   This creates an obvious need to decrease frontline length via series of small attacks to cut those ISIS bulges (or just push them from villages deeper into desert, where a good defence line can be made using general landscape with villages overlooking open desert). Better way to prepare this assault would have been continuation operation near Kuweiris, taking 2 cities near cleared territories and villages near Kuweiris base (Al Bab town, for example). That would create a way to protect northen flank of Tabqa offencive.

 

   None of this was done before Tabqa offencive. Another point - almost no CAS support was provided by VKS helicopters to attackers, and exactly that CAS from Mi-24/28s and Ka-52s played big role in Palmyra and Qaratyan liberation.

 

   Overall, that push lacked numbers, CAS and "good" preparation resulted in soldiers and other participants to be unsure of why they are doing it, and they actually voiced pretty loudly that "we feel ISIS is draging us into the trap" lines (saw in several interviews, one of i think was done by Saponkov). And when ISIS attacked, SAA/NDF/etc panicked about that trap and results we know. 

 

   For me this attempt to take Tabqa was gamble to take and airport near Raqqa, with hopes that ISIS will be cought in fights for Manbij and will not be able to respond to attack fast/strong enough. Thats why attack forces were quickly assembled together and CAS was not organised in time. All this made this push outcome different from pretty similar (in nature of attackers) attack on Palmyra.  

 

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   Oryx lines about army and NDF are mostly true, although it is hard to say a degree, at which his claims are true. Part about Alawi private armies sound like some sort of Nusra PR/BS. 

 

 

This proved to be less of a problem at Tadmur, where the Russian Armed Forces had considerable influence upon the whole operation. 

   Russian Army also supervised attack in/on Tabqa. Failer of this operation is also partially our resposibilty - no CAS in needed numbers, not very well prepared or organised offencive, attackers were not very well supplied by weapons needed (Saponkov's video shows that technicals were used in first lines of push). This reinforce my opinion that this whole operation was thrown together quickly in attempt to take advantage of SDF gains near Manbij.

 

 

Another not unimportant shortcoming in the regime's tactics is the fact that it constantly moves its most capable units (Suqour al-Sahraa' and the Tiger Forces) throughout Syria when another position is about to run over or has been run over, forcing either of the two units to abandon their current operations. This has led to a string of unfinished offensives costing precious fuel, equipment and manpower. This also applies to the capture of Tadmur (Palmyra), the capture of which would have been justified if it had been taken with the aim of further advancing towards the besieged town of Deir ez-Zor. But instead of chasing the Islamic State all the way to the gates of Deir ez-Zor, which would have proved to be relatively easy as there were no major Islamic State strongholds between Tadmur and Deir ez-Zor

   Yeah, direct attack to Deir EzZor from Tadmor would not create exposed to flanking attacks long and narrow "sleeve" of SAA controlled road/territory around it, not at all!

 

 

The force tasked with capturing Tabqa airbase and the town of Tabqa itself consisted of no less than eleven different branches and factions out of three (technically four) different countries, comprising Suqour al-Sahraa', the Syrian Arab Army (further divided into at least two regiments, at least believed to have been part of the 4th Armoured Division), the Syrian Arab Air Force, the National Defence Force (further divided into the Golan Regiment and several smaller regiments), the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP), the Ba'ath Brigades, the Arab Nationalist Guard, the Republican Guard, Hizbullah, the Russian Army and the Russian Air Force, each operating its own tanks and equipment.

 

   Hezbollah near Tabqa? I never saw a single photo of any member of Al-Mukawoma among attackers.

   I also like how he ignores that similar composition of forces were able to push enemies in Lattakia, Western and Eastern parts of Aleppo provinces (Kuweiris, Al-Hader, cut Azaz supply line, etc) Southern Syria (Sheikh Maskin city), Tadmor, Qaratyan and so on.

 

 

After securing the Safiya crossroad, the fighters of the Islamic State began advancing along the same road the regime forces had previously fought for. This convoy moved through the open desert at high speed, completely untouched by the Syrian Arab Air Force.

   And by VKS. I also pointed that in this thread - no organisation of FFI resulted in no CAS and no effective air support in general from VKS.

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#SAA have launched a counter attack on Mallah after withdrawing yesterday from a number of points after a large #JN led assault #Aleppo

 

 

#SDF take control of al-Assadiyah (a village on the southern edge of #Manbij, not a neighbourhood), it is where Abu Leyla's house is

 

 

Islamist commander Abdel Latif Darwish was killed in clashes with #SAA at Mallah

 

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