Syrian conflict.

[Ramlaen]

Quote

Apparently all 50-60 cruise missiles were targeted at shayrat airbase in homs province.

 

Seems like a targeted punitive strike at where the chemical attack originated.

[ApplesauceBandit]

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/06/the-us-warned-the-russians-ahead-of-syria-missile-strikes-official.html

 

Russia was apparently warned that the missiles were being launched

[Jeeps_Guns_Tanks]

Hopefully this will be our only response, and since the russians were pre warned, maybe it's all just show.  Getting into another war is the stupidest fucking idea ever. 

 

I've been poking around reading into the Syrian chem weapons attacks, and none of them seem to have any proof backing them up, and all the recent ones were rebels trying to use Chlorine as a weapon.  This all seems to convenient considering the EU was pissed the US had stepped back from regime change. 

[ApplesauceBandit]

3 minutes ago, Jeeps_Guns_Tanks said:

Hopefully this will be our only response, and since the russians were pre warned, maybe it's all just show.  Getting into another war is the stupidest fucking idea ever. 

This guy seems to have come to the same conclusion

[Jeeps_Guns_Tanks]

Just from a who has the most to gain point of view, this has rebels, or some nations intel people, or even the CIA, written all over it, who knows, it would have been the stupidest possible thing for Assad to do . 

 

Hell even Dilbert Man is saying this seems like BS.  Also, from what I understand, all the rebels are pretty shitty as far as people you want on your side go, and handing the country over to them would just be Iraq, or Libya all over again?

[Priory_of_Sion]

Wondering how Iran, Hezbollah, misc Shia militias are reacting, as they might take this more seriously as an existential threat than the Russians seeing this as old great power politics. 

[Priory_of_Sion]

Wouldn't be surprised if retaliation means rockets fly into Tel Aviv 

[Collimatrix]

40 minutes ago, Jeeps_Guns_Tanks said:

 

 

Hell even Dilbert Man is saying this seems like BS.  Also, from what I understand, all the rebels are pretty shitty as far as people you want on your side go, and handing the country over to them would just be Iraq, or Libya all over again?

 

 

IMO, the first thing that would happen if the Assad government were to fall is that the rebel groups would all turn on each other.  It would be far from the first time that they've collapsed into infighting, and without any common enemy whatsoever, the civil war would go into round 2.

[Ramlaen]

 

 

[Priory_of_Sion]

1 hour ago, Collimatrix said:

 

 

IMO, the first thing that would happen if the Assad government were to fall is that the rebel groups would all turn on each other.  It would be far from the first time that they've collapsed into infighting, and without any common enemy whatsoever, the civil war would go into round 2.

Knowing that Assad's government represents Syria's Alawite, Shia, Christian, Druze, and non-religious peoples you can also expect some good ole ethnic cleansing if these groups cant fend for themselves against rather well armed jihadis. 

[Bronezhilet]

Yep. "First we massacre other religions, then our own people who have a different opinion". It'd be Libya v2, but with more massacres.

[Collimatrix]

Oh yeah, massacres for days.  Poke around in this thread and you'll find rebel spokesmen getting harassed by their backers for not having genocided enough Shia yet.

 

There is an interesting mirror image.  The US has the resources to prosecute a massive war in Syria that would easily defeat all opposing factions (unless they resorted to nuclear exchange which is why this option should not be considered at all), but there is wavering public support for such a mission.  Eventually the US public will come to their senses and say "oh yeah, that's right, wars in the Middle East suck and we shouldn't do that again."  Possibly they'll even think something like, "also, there are a lot of Saudi-sponsored media outlets that keep telling us lies and trying to get us to fight their stupid war for them.  We should expel all Saudi lobbyists and anyone who ever touched their thirty pieces of silver from this country forever and cut off all support for the rebels in Syria because they are horrible people and there is no point in winning a war by proxy in a country that has modest amounts of oil and almost no surviving infrastructure."  But the odds of that level of common sense becoming the general perception are fairly slim.  Bottom line though, there isn't really any strong support in the US for protracted involvement in Syria (even though there already has been).

 

On the other hand, Iran and Russia have far less abundant resources to pursue a war in Syria, but their heart is really in it.  Support for the war is at something like 70% in Russia, and probably even higher in Iran.  In no small part, this is due to their respective publics seeing the war as an intervention to protect their co-religionists (Syriac Orthodox Church and Shiite minority in Syria) against outside aggressors who would slaughter them.  The fact that this is basically true makes this view all the more compelling.

 

I don't have a good feel for the level of support from the public in Saudi Arabia or Turkey.  I suspect that the public would rather that the zillions of dollars being spent funding the rebels be spent at home, and I suspect equally that the leadership of both of those countries doesn't give a fuck what their public thinks.  There were some projections showing that Saudi Arabia was dipping dangerously into their reserves to continue funding their wars in both Syria and Yemen.  I guess if Saudi Arabia implodes in the next five years we'll know that those projections were correct.

 

The worst part about Saudi Arabia imploding is that the country will inevitably be taken over by Wahhabist extremists of the worst sort.  They'll use the country's oil wealth to export terrorism even more aggressively than the House of Saud does.  So basically, the entire House of Saud will be butchered and their heads will be displayed on pikes, and nobody will get any time to reflect on how richly those bastards deserved it, because everyone will be too busy trying to eradicate whomever it was that overthrew them.  That's truly cruel.

[ApplesauceBandit]

The other reserves that Saudi Arabia is dipping dangerously low in are their aquifers.  A lot of those are already bone dry.

 

 

I guess this is why we've got Looser, but guessing it means Russia has ceased military talks/collaboration in Syria with the US.

 

 

https://www.liveleak.com/view?i=751_1491549371

Liveleak thing claiming gas used in the attack was phosphine, something that I imagine would be much easier to find than sarin gas.

Edited April 7, 2017 by ApplesauceBandit

[LoooSeR]

7 hours ago, ApplesauceBandit said:

This guy seems to have come to the same conclusion

Leith is not very good source, just look at Al-Masdar periodically posting article with stupid rumors as actual news.

[Mighty_Zuk]

Basically today:

[LoooSeR]

5 hours ago, Priory_of_Sion said:

Knowing that Assad's government represents Syria's Alawite, Shia, Christian, Druze, and non-religious peoples you can also expect some good ole ethnic cleansing if these groups cant fend for themselves against rather well armed jihadis. 

You kinda forgot 70% of Sunnis of Syira.

 

   Well, all hopes that with Trump US might not get into fight with us to save al-qaeda assholes are gone. This is worse than during Obama's presidency. I would expected such event in case of Hilariwi Al-Clintoni victory. Several experts here, who claimed that Trump is "Inflated turkey" that speak loudly but will do nothing serious to change US international politics were probably right.

[LoooSeR]

8 hours ago, Ramlaen said:

Seems like a targeted punitive strike at where the chemical attack originated.

They should have hit Idlib if they wanted to hit a source.

 

5 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Basically today:

Yeah... "fun" that might get us into really serious troubles.  

[LoooSeR]

Quote

April 2016: Russian Air Force in #Syria: At least 3 Mi-28s, 4 Ka-52s and 3 Mi-24/35s at #Shayrat airbase

[Mighty_Zuk]

I personally dont view it negatively. On the contrary.

Communication between Russia and USA was effective and none was harmed.

Trump showed strength after a long series of shows of weakness by Obama, which is needed to assure their allies that not only Russia physically acts in the interests of their allies.

 

Relations may have been harmed. Or not. Putin is a pragmatistic person. Surely he can respect a show of power and sees the picture.

 

Assad did a stupid thing and I dont think Russia was surprised by the US actually enforcing the red lines they've set.

 

 

Behind the scenes I think Putin is showing Assad he isn't pleased with him provoking external powers to intervene in an already complicated conflict.

 

First assad fires on Israel and nearly provokes a military operation (had the missile landed in Israel, Israel would retaliate by decimating Syria's air defenses and ballistic missile stockpiles), then uses gas and gets an airbase in ruins.

 

And who has to deal with all of Assad's shit? Putin, who needs Assad to survive. And the western talks about not needing Assad anymore (supposed to remain president but be part of negotiations with opposition groups) are definitely very harmful for Russia's interests.

[Bronezhilet]

3 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Communication between Russia and USA was effective and none was harmed.

Other sources are saying 1 was killed with 15 wounded. Amount of planes destroyed is a little sketchy still, reports range from 9 to 16. And with the last Hama offensive we already saw that the SyAF and RuAF are stretched pretty thin. So no, this isn't good at all. Another offensive like the Hama offensive and the Syrians can be in a lot more trouble.

 

Plus, this is an attack based on circumstantial evidence at best. A superpower striking nations based on circumstantial evidence scare me a little.

[LoooSeR]

14 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

I personally dont view it negatively. On the contrary.

Communication between Russia and USA was effective and none was harmed.

Trump showed strength after a long series of shows of weakness by Obama, which is needed to assure their allies that not only Russia physically acts in the interests of their allies.

 

Relations may have been harmed. Or not. Putin is a pragmatistic person. Surely he can respect a show of power and sees the picture.

 

Assad did a stupid thing and I dont think Russia was surprised by the US actually enforcing the red lines they've set.

 

 

Behind the scenes I think Putin is showing Assad he isn't pleased with him provoking external powers to intervene in an already complicated conflict.

 

First assad fires on Israel and nearly provokes a military operation (had the missile landed in Israel, Israel would retaliate by decimating Syria's air defenses and ballistic missile stockpiles), then uses gas and gets an airbase in ruins.

 

And who has to deal with all of Assad's shit? Putin, who needs Assad to survive. And the western talks about not needing Assad anymore (supposed to remain president but be part of negotiations with opposition groups) are definitely very harmful for Russia's interests.

This is collection of dumbest thing i saw today.

[LoooSeR]

Quote

The town of Al-Sha'irat; smoke rising from the #Shayrat AB #Homs. Pro-gov activist: Air Defence Brigade badly mauled. Its commander KIA.

[LoooSeR]

Quote

   The bandit groups that are part of the ISIS terrorist organization began an advancing operation in the eastern part of the Homs province immediately after the missile strike inflicted by the United States.
   Extracting the maximum benefit from the US missile strike at the airbase of the Syrian Air Force in Homs, the ISIS operatives made a series of attacks on the roadblocks of the SAA on the approach to the strategically important city of Al-Furkala, reports the Arab agency AMN.

   The military airfield of Al-Shayrat was one of the most important points of the Syrian Air Force in the fight against ISIS because of its proximity to the fronts of Palmyra and Deir ez Zor.

Thanks, Trump.

[Mighty_Zuk]

You can disagree. I gave you my personal view, and I'm looking at regional effects more than global effects in this case.

[Bronezhilet]

People are saying that it's a fuel depot that's burning there, which is another bad thing since Syria was already low on fuel in the first place.