Syrian conflict.

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   The escape of terrorists in front of the progress of the Syrian army and its allies in the mountains of Shomria, Homs countryside

 

 

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Northen Hama, strikes continue.

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Russian MP going to Afrin.

 

SAA, Deir EzZor, Evgenniy Poddubniy

 

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Sarab-1 on MG position

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   Yesterday at the press conference following the meeting, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the progress in creating de-escalation zones in Syria. According to the agreements reached, these zones will be closed for the aviation of the Syrian army, but the group of the Russian Federation Air Force in Syria will be able to control them.

   Taking into account number of aircrafts and how they were used previously, i expect that those zones will be almost never bombed by VKS.

 

   Those negotiations after attack on Shayrat base is a reason why there is no progress in Northen Hama and why there will be no exit for Syrians from this war...  At least Idlib will be no longer "Syria" and will become like Chechnya in 1995 - quasi-state. Area near Al-Bab and Northen part of Syria under pro-Turkish forces will become de-facto Turkish territory. All those talks and negotiations looks like 1995-1996 all over again, and i smell something bad will happen for Syria and Russia (at least reputation, at most we will get way more terrorists in next 5-10 years).   

 

   Fuck this shit. 1.5+ years of our operation in Syria and only like 2.5 steps to defeat terrorists were done - Aleppo, Palmyra, Eastern Aleppo province assault and thats all. Our semi-exit in near future is now possible, judging by rhetorics i hear.

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Every time Putin has tried for a negotiated settlement in Syria he's been burned.  The rebels simply do not negotiate in good faith.

 

My guess is that the war in Syria is expensive for Russia, or perhaps Putin fears that it could become too expensive if he has to send more forces.  He has to keep one eye on the budget, and also on the possibility of international escalation and not let the Russian commitment become too large to sustain.  My guess is that in his heart of hearts he wants to send everything and turn all the rebels into a fine paste mist, thus solving the problem permanently, but doing that would be too expensive and too risky.  He will shed a single, manly tear, and then he will go through an extensive training montage where he lifts bears and practices kung-fu guided by the ghost of Leonid Brezhnev.  In Libya he did nothing, and disaster followed.  In Syria he tried, but had too many distractions, and the end was bittersweet.  But next time...

 

I also guess that the rebels know this, and so they keep fighting.  This is also why they are fighting other rebels so often; at some point in the future, they foresee a little rump state carved out of pieces of Syria, and they want to be the ones to run it.

 

Turkey would be happy.  They get a piece of northern Syria that divides the Kurdish cantons, and Erdogan gets to LARP that he is an Ottoman sultan of old.  Assad wouldn't exactly be happy, but he or someone he chose could conceivably remain in power and in control of most of the important parts of the country (presumably ISIS would be driven out of the oil fields and exterminated), and his people would remain un-genocided.  The US would be happy; the State Department and co. could spin it as a partial victory for diplomacy and they could pretend that the little jihadi statelet was some shining beacon of democracy.  The DOD would be happy because they could justify bigger budgets and they would look really cool during the part where they flew in their shiny jets and carpet bombed ISIS.  Trump would be happy because he could take credit for bringing a (temporary) end to the crisis.  If he can time it right, it will help with the 2018 congressional election.  Russia wouldn't exactly be happy because they know that the infection will flare up in another few years, but at least their naval base isn't threatened, and other nations looking for defense partnership will see that Russia did defend their ally.  The Gulf Arab pipeline through Syria will not be built, so Saudi Arabia won't be able to crash the Russian economy by engaging in price wars on natural gas (as easily).  Probably more people will buy Russian weapon systems after seeing the rebels get turned inside out by VKS airstrikes.  Iran won't exactly be happy, but they will have successfully defended their Shia brothers, for the most part, and they'll have thwarted the Gulf Arab states.  Israel will be sort of happy; they will have severely weakened a rival to their north, but once the war is over the rebels they helped support might turn their attention on them.  The rebels, at least the ones who survive the struggle for power in the little statelet will be happy.  Europe will be happy; the migrant crisis, to which they have no actual solution will at least slow down.  Gulf Arab states will be pissed off.  Their pipeline to Europe will not be built, the Shia and Alawi populations in Syria will remain frustratingly still alive, Hillary Clinton did not get elected, and they will be running out of oil, ground water, and quite possibly money as well.  Kurds will be pissed off; a lot of fighting and dying, and they won't be any closer to Kurdistan.

 

While I am making wild guesses, I have even more!

Russian air power proved decisive, and was much stronger than it was in the 2008 Georgia campaign.  But it will need to be improved further to help deliver decisive victories in future conflicts.

 

Specifically, the flaw of Russian air strikes right now is that they just leave too many people alive.  The strikes are good enough to support ground forces who can then advance.  This is good enough to take territory, but eventually it means that the jihadis just get moved around and cornered into little pockets.  And then you need to break out the green busses to move those pockets into bigger pockets, and you still have the same jihadi problem, but it's just been moved somewhere else.

 

What are needed are sensors that can detect and target individual humans.  Thermal sensors are the obvious choice, advanced radar will be good enough to pick up human-sized targets soon.  IIRC, Northrop Grumman is working on a next-generation GMTI radar that can see individual humans "at medium ranges" that is small enough to fit into a business jet (sideways-looking radar array).  Additionally, Russia needs more reconnaissance drones and air-to-surface sensor pods for fighters to strengthen their ability to monitor the enemy.  There have been several surprise offensives, such as the recent Hama offensive and the ISIS attack on Palmyra, that show that the Russian long-range surveillance capability is not strong enough right now.

Here is what I envision: strategic strikes are carried out by TU-22M3 and TU-160, and at some point in the future perhaps TU-160M2 and PAK-DA.  Surveillance is conducted at multiple levels, from spy satellites with various sensors to dedicated long-range battlefield management aircraft, to fighters with sensor pods (or built-in sensors, like the sideways-looking cheek radars on PAK-FA) all the way down to ubiquitous small drones.  Close air support is carried out by SU-25, while more routine interdiction is carried out by SU-30/SU-34/SU-35.  Close air support in concert with the ground forces is responsible for breaking up enemy forces, destroying enemy air defense systems, and forcing them to retreat, like heavy cavalry in the ancient period.  Helicopters with advanced thermal or radar targeting systems and drones are responsible for destroying the retreating enemy ground forces, like light cavalry in the ancient period.  The goal is not necessarily to kill literally every enemy combatant, but to kill enough of them that they cannot easily and quickly re-group and attack later.

 

If I may make one last wide-eyed technological prognostication, Syria will be one of the last proxy wars where irregular rebels supplied by foreign patrons are able to cause problems for a national army.  Airborne sensors are becoming good enough that it will be possible to fly a few aircraft over an area and automatically kill every target that looks like a human with a rifle.  Here are images from the F-35's air-to-ground radar.  Yes; it is so good that you can see the marks left in the dirt by vehicle tracks!

 

There are, of course, countermeasures to such technology, but they are not countermeasures that irregular military forces and rebels would have.  I think that technology is moving to a situation where the only military forces that will be able to resist an organized national military will be another organized national military.  The days of the jihadoyota with Saudi-supplied ATGMs are numbered.

Anyway, I have gone on too long with too much supposition.

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Russian MP with Kurds in Afrin

 

 

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ASTANA, May 4 - RIA Novosti. The zones of de-escalation in Syria will be set for 6 months with posibility to prolong for the same period, moreover, the memorandum may be unlimited, said the head of the Russian delegation at the talks in Astana, Alexander Lavrentiev.

 

 

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Training facility for Russian/Syriam MP geolocated

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=ru&lat=36.583953&lon=36.948805&z=19&m=b&search=Hama

 

 

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More of Russian forces in Syria, sappers.

 

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SSO

 

 

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Syrian Army makes important advance southeast of #Palmyra
 controls the Talila area

 

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Russians raise Syrian flag in border areas of Afrin

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Colonel ahmad mostafa chief of NDF operations room in hama province and commander of mhardeh sector simoun al-wakel honoured by russian army

 

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#SAA from mountains north of #Palmyra in East #Homs countryside 

#Syria #ISIS

 

NSFW

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   (TASS) Syria’s government supports Russia’s proposal to establish de-escalation zones in Syria, SANA news agency said on Wednesday citing a statement by a Foreign Ministry spokesperson.

   In addition, the statement confirms Damascus’s commitment to the cessation of hostilities agreement of December 30, 2016, brokered by Russia, Iran and Turkey. Syria will not shell the areas designated as ‘safe zones.’

 

   “In this regard, Syria affirms the continuation of the Syrian Arab army, the allied and backup forces in their war against terrorism and the fight against ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra and other affiliated terrorist organizations wherever they were all over the Syrian territories,” the news agency said.

 

   Russian proposals have not been published as of yet. Al-Jazeera TV channel said that four ‘safe zones’ or ‘de-escalation zones’ will be established between Idlib and Aleppo, near Hama and Homs and east of Damascus and on the outskirts of Daraa in south Syria.

 

   In the past two months, government forces and armed opposition groups have been engaged in fighting in those areas, the main theaters of combat operations. The nationwide ceasefire came into force on 30 December 2016 in line with the truce deal sealed in an effort to find a complex solution to the Syria crisis.

 

   Syrian government forces and groups of armed opposition with an overall strength of more than 60,000 have agreed to the ceasefire. Russia and Turkey act as its guarantors.

   Ceasefire does not cover terrorist groups, such as Islamic State.

 

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I cant wait for this! Ramadan comedy series filmed in Damascus will feature Donald Trump &Melania played by Syrian actor &Lebanese actress

 

 

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SAA capture point 968 north-west of Dab'a al-Mleha & points 881 & 876 west of al-Mushirah al-Janoubiyah in east Homs countryside

 

 

lol

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Famous TOW guy got arrested by al-Qaeda after he posted a pic of him smoking next to one of their "smoking is haram" signs near Maaret Numan

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7 days into E Ghouta infighting, death toll (civ/mil) reaches 146 with clashes/shelling/assassinations ongoing on most fronts inside pocket

 

Nearly done Greenbusing those.

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Buses entered al-Waer to begin process of evacuating the 8th batch, they will be sent to Jarablus

The next batch (9th) will reportedly be the last to evacuate those who rejected settlement/reconciliation with the Government

 

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100 militants + their families were evacuated from Sabna town on the Lebanese border towards E Qalamoun as part of agreement with the SAA

 

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BREAKING: Jaish Al-Islam releases hundreds of Alawite prisoners in rural Damascus

 

   DAMASCUS, SYRIA (7:15 P.M.) – Following a rare deal between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Jaish Al-Islam, hundreds of captive civilians and soldiers, mostly Alawites, were released in return for 51 aid convoys entering Douma in eastern Damascus.

   The total number of released prisoners, shown caged in November 2015 to prevent airstrikes on the Jaish Al-Islam stronghold, was not specified but the deal signifies a positive step in restoring peace to the Syrian capital.

 

   Sheikh Issam Al-Buwaydani, commander-in-chief of Jaish Al-Islam’s military operations in the East Ghouta, reportedly spearheaded the negotiations himself with a delegation of SAA representatives over walkie-talkie.

 

   With a massive aid convoy heading along the Harasta Highway en route to Douma overnight, scores of predominately Alawite prisoners arrived in government-held downtown Damascus and were immediately transferred to hospital to monitor their conditions.

   Most were said to have been captured in Adra, a town just northeast of Douma which witnessed a massacre of minority civilians back in December, 2013.

 

   Meanwhile, heavy infighting continues to plague the East Ghouta region as Jaish Al-Islam continues to confront Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), Failaq Al-Sham (FSA) and Ahrar Al-Sham.

 

 

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#SAA repelled a jihadi attack on Masasinah front & captured a Konkurs ATGM launcher+ 10 motorbikes+sniper rifles+machine guns #NorthernHama

 

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2 days ago

 

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.....that is, Bashar Assad now should repeat the mistake made by Russia during the First Chechen war, when militants were hammered into the mountains, but were given time for reorganisation