oldroads

GeoPoliticalFutures which is a subscriber only site has its take on events keeping in mind it has multiple contributors from around the world but is American focused. * Prior to invasion a rumour they heard Russia was offered a deal, the USA stays out of Ukraine but Russia must stay out of Belarus, it was declined. * Russian strategy was politically driven to scare Ukraine into signing an agreement and to undermine Nato via the new German government wanting the invasion problem to go away, Germany caved under western pressure and Ukraine resistance was higher than expected when Russia rolled in. * Russian armed forces were operating like something out of the cold war with large armoured formations and all the problems that incurs, puzzled why the internet is still active etc (no war is clean and you definitely don't want it broadcast to the world of today), decisions may be have been politically made rather than what's best tactically. * The Ukrainian armed forces have dispersed requiring Russian infantry units having to sweep areas clear before armour can push through, the west is flooding Ukraine with infantry anti-armour weapons. * The Russian Air Force has not much to hit targets wise (not because its incapable). * Russia needs a quick win and cannot let this drag on which is what the west wants. Economics * If Russia can survive the initial shock from global sanctions it will be fine in the long run, also sanctions sometimes can have the opposite effect and actually help domestic production and technology, Russia is self reliant in many areas but will loose access to high end technology and luxury goods from the west. * Huge risks in wheat and fertilizer production, Russia and Ukraine are both major global suppliers, if conflict drags on it will badly affect North Africa the main customers which could in turn fuel instability in an already fragile part of the world. What some in the west fear the most is that a Eurasian alliance forms with its own international finance institutions and technology it hasn't happened yet but this could accelerate its creation, the USA is going to be working overtime to keep China and Russia apart. How things play out remains to be seen, the west has done as much as it can without direct war, either Putin gets a compromise deal with west (no way they allow it at this point but months from now attitudes may change) or Russia breaks Ukrainian morale and forces a surrender. My own view on this talk of insurgency is made by people with not much understanding, Ukraine is not Afghanistan, if Russia were to occupy all of Ukraine; * Ukraine is not a poor/undeveloped country its citizens have something to loose, bills to pay, going to school etc. they cannot afford to send their sons off to die. * Ukraine is flat there is not many places to hide. * Russia has a fairly effective secret police in putting down revolts once military occupation ends. * Ukraine/Russia share language/culture/religion, Russians are not strangers to Ukraine something the Soviets and Americans failed to understand in Afghanistan. * Entry points into Ukraine via EU can be policed by Russian "peace keeping" forces and resupplied via Belarus, Afghanistan was surrounded by unfriendly countries to USA. This action by Putin defiantly backfired when it comes to Nato which was falling apart all on its own, as Macron pointed out much to the anger of western elites a few years ago. Now Nato is fully rejuvenated, Germany is going to re-arm which is going to be another problem (many in Europe are nervous about Germany with large military). The USA has gotten new military bases in EU countries Denmark/Romania and support for Nato has sky rocketed in Sweden/Finland, Turkey is being brought in from the cold. All anti-Russia hard liners are now politically untouchable in the west.