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Sturgeon's House

The Meteorology Thread: I Want to Get Off March 2018's Wild Ride

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NHC breaking out the F word


The intensity forecast, which is at or above the upper edge of the guidance, now calls for Maria to reach a peak intensity of 135 kt in about 24 h, and it is possible that the hurricane could reach category 5 status.



(fwiw, raw satellite estimates are already well above the cat 5 threshold)

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Meanwhile it finally rained here in the Pacific Northwest.




And we got snow in the Cascades. 




Which is finally knocking down all the smoke from the forest fires in the region.


The prayers sent to us from across the country have been answered. God bless.

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10 hours ago, Sgt.Squarehead said:

TBH only two things have surprised me about these hurricanes:


1 - Nobody has tried to blame Russia.


2 - ISIS have not claimed responsibility.

ISIS already claimed that this is Allakh rage against US or something along those lines.


And they need to look better at skies to see who is guilty


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Washington Post living up to its usual standard of journalism; https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/22/category-5-hurricanes-have-hit-6-land-areas-dead-on-in-2017-more-than-ever-before/?utm_term=.7173727351d9


6/24 is a small as hell sample size, and counting each of the Leeward Islands that Irma smashed into separately artificially inflates the count (by their logic, Irma hitting 5 islands would be a bigger deal than separate Cat 5s making single landfalls on Mexico, Texas, Alabama, and Florida). Second, measuring only category 5 landfalls is stupid; Katrina made landfall as a 3 (albeit one with a very low pressure and pushing a Cat 5 surge), Isabel made landfall as a 2, Wilma was a 4 at landfall in Mexico, etc.


I also like the one sentence mention of undersampling in the past.


(standard disclaimer that I believe global warming climate change is real, but if you're going to use tropical cyclones in your argument at least use long term ACE trends or something vaguely relevant).

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Are there any guides for what sort of structural concessions are needed to keep a house from getting clobbered by hurricanes of the sort of intensity of the ones from this season?  I'm curious how much it would cost, and especially how much it would cost vs. the amount of money on hand in the areas that were affected.

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