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   Azeri map. Southern group of forces managed to break through.

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   During 7/8th October Armenian officials and MoD started to release a lot of info about counter-attack that surrounded large group of Azeri forces (3 battalions claimed) and that Azeris are running to Iranian border. As no evidence appeared in past few days of this "victory" we can pretty much say that it was a fake, but looking deeper it is only partially a fake.

   Looking through footage it appears that Armenian/NKR troops tried to counter-attack using bad weather to concentrate forces, but this counter-attacking forces was demolished by Azeri forces and as a result they managed to penetrate defences and captured number of villages on Southern part of NKR.

 

   One of videos from drone that showed huge forces on road was geolocated

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   The location is about halfway along the road from Jebrail to Fizuli, 7km behind the front lines. It is even possible that it was here that the group "for the foundation" [for operation] was going ... And by the morning they showed the captured armored vehicles - we counted 10 tanks and 4 armored personnel carriers+ knocked out on Lostarmor. Apparently that's why there is silence today, without encirclements in the south.

 

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   Jebrail is S-W from point.

 

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   Azeri forces captured Jebrail after NKR/Armenian forces defeat, some footage of destroyed Armenian forces and Azeri flag over Jebrail:

 

   Another video, probably near same area, named "going to Shushi, catch up!", NSFW

 

   It is possible Armenian side was putting a lot on this counter-attack, as number of known Russian war journalists were in that general area and probably were to be used to show defeat of Azerbaijan troops. Now this operation failed hard, so negotiations are in the process.

 

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   Negotiations between Lavrov, Bayramov and Mnatsakanyan have been going on for the ninth hour.

There have never been such lengthy negotiations between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia.

   The longest and most intense negotiations were considered in Geneva in January this year.

 

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Short summary of that analysis.      Azerbaijan army conducting attack of Nagorniy Karabakh from 2 directions - Southern and Northern. Main attack is happening against city of Martakert (Nor

Massive fighting started along most of the Nagorno Karabakh border. The situation looks very serious as both Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia declared martial law and started general mobilisation.   

3rd pic show wheel that Mi-8s doesn't have. According to what i saw, those photos are from 2013, Russian AN-2 crash. That wheel looks like is a rear wheel of AN-2.

 

21 hours ago, LoooSeR said:

   Azeri forces captured Hardut. If they will capture Fizuli (town nearby), they will have a direct road to Shushi and later - Stepanakert, main cities in NKR.

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   Fighting for Hadrut finished for today, it is under Armenian control, at least for now. Battle was very serious, according to vids by Russian journalist (Pegov and Kots). Azerbaijan forces tried to assault it, apperently from 2 sides (mountains and from main road), but Armenian/NKR deployed serious reinforcement to hold on. 

   If Azeris capture Hadrut, they will have a serious edge and direct path to main cities in NKR such as Sushi and Stepanakert.

 

   More Armenian/NKR combat footage

 

   Drone parts

 

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Another Harop wreckage on Iranian soil. Probably downed by Iranian AD.

 

Remains of Izraeli long range guided artillery rocket Extra on NKR territory (third post in that twitter thread, don't know why it shows all).

 

 

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   Azer. MoD claims control of Hadrut. This village/small town saw very heavy combat for it over last 2 days in areas around town, mountains that overlook it and inside as well.

   Because of conflicting reports, people were trying to geolocate every piece of video and photo from that region.

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   Overal situation (12.10, don't show capture of Hadrut and several mountains around it).

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   Northen group of Az. forces managed to take Talysh and Magadis, their advance is aimed at Martakert. What was expected to be main route of attack now seems to be secondary, because of limited advances.

   Southern group of forces achieved significantly more, but part of their advances are capture of villages that were abandoned during previous war. After capture of Hadrut, Az forces most likely will try to take Fizuli and this will secure their flank. After that, road to Shushi and central part of NKR in general, is kind of open.

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"Lavrov spoke about the political solution to the Karabakh conflict.

▪️A phased withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces from five regions around Karabakh, while observing the security guarantees of Karabakh itself.

▪️Defining the status of Karabakh and liberation of two more regions.

▪️Peace in Karabakh must be supported by peacekeepers as well."

 

Heh, Russian position was expected, but ithought it would be less radical. This is basically "give whole NKR to Azerbaijan".

 

Pashinyan already made his speech to the nation, mostly empty words, main message of it was continuation of war.

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"TASS, [14.10.2020 17:53]
About 80% of residents have left the city of Shushi, next to Stepanakert, after regular shelling.

It is in Shushi that one of the main temples of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic is located, which was hit by two rocket attacks a few days ago"

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