Alzoc

https://www.usarmygvsc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/2022-Industry-Days-MS2_v2-OPSEC.pdf

Some of you probably already saw the images but the fire (or at least the smoke generated) on the Moskva was visible from orbit :
 

 
Pictures were taken from an environment monitoring satellite from the Sentinel-1 constellation.
Same satellite took pictures of two Russian ships formations leaving from Sevastopol two days later :
 

 
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/04/satellite-image-pinpoints-russian-cruiser-moskva-as-she-burned/

Russian MoD report that the ship ended up sinking once towed back to port because of previous damages and rough sea.
 
https://t.me/rian_ru/158794

A small nuance on that point.
Recent AFV sale contracts often include maintenance support by the manufacturer for a set number of years.
Some older contracts simply included a stock of spare parts delivered at the same time as the vehicles and the clients was responsible for maintenance.
So that a vehicle is still in service doesn't mean that spare parts are still being produced, it could be simply using stock or a cannibalization of existing vehicle.
 
If I take France for example, we could technically give the Ukrainians VAB or even AMX-10P. The first is being phased out and replaced by the Griffon and the Serval and the second is in reserve and only used by the OPFOR for training purposes. There is no spare parts production for the 10P anymore and as for the VAB (which is technically still in service) only some of the parts are still being produced, not all of them.
On top of that those vehicle haven't any operational potential left and so are in very poor shape.

Yes. Specifically parts with Slavic-heavy population. Russia will fall apart into bunch of small homogenous-ish countries, if this route will be unopposed.

Depends on what both sides are willing to accept.
 
Russia is still sticking to the "special operation" narrative, meaning the political cost of mobilization or sending conscript into Ukraine would be high. It would mean admitting to the Russian population that the scale of the invasion was much bigger than initially reported and that they took not insignificant losses. Russian ground forces have about 280 000 soldiers about which a bit over 100 000 are tied up in Ukraine. Keep in mind that Russia still have to keep it's other borders secure (especially the border with China) and that the country is huge. So without access to conscripts or forces from other theatre they can't easily replenish their losses. All of this is compounded by the poor state of Russian logistics in Ukraine. Ukrainian know this and are targetting their supplies. They recently blown up an oil depot in Belgorod (Russia), which supply the forces in Kharkiv, using attack helicopter. Even if the Ukrainian deny it was them, the Russian have no reasons at all to blow up their own badly needed supplies, even for a false flag operation. On top of it force the local Russian population to see that the war came back right at their doorstep contradicting the narrative of the Kremlin.
 
As for Ukraine they are fighting on their own soil, so as you said the longer the fight goes on the higher civilian casualties will be. It all depends on what losses the Ukrainian population are willing to accept, but for now their moral is likely high (Russian troops stepped back from Kiev and they are fighting a defensive war to keep their independence). On the other hand Ukrainian forces so far denied engagement on open terrain to the Russian forces. They know that in open combat they will likely be defeated by Russian forces which have the edge in the air and in the overall quality of their material. So far they preserved some of their manoeuvrer capability by forcing the Russian in urban combat and being on the defensive, but now that they are going on the offensive their losses will be much higher and they could lose most of their remaining assets and be forced back into a passive defensive position. It's a big gamble.
 
The fight in the Donbass will most likely determine the future borders of the separatist republics and how much terrain will Ukraine lose during negotiations.
 
A slightly different matter is the worrying radicalization of both sides. We know that exactions against POW occurred on both sides and that both of them already partially disregard international law regarding POW (Publishing images of captured soldiers is normally forbidden for example). The massacre in Bucha will rile up the Ukrainians even more, possibly leading to even more exactions against Russian POW creating a negative feedback loop. This was aggravated when Russia, instead of denying their responsibility in Bucha and saying that they would investigate anyway (which would have been the smart choice) went and immediately claimed at the UN that all of it was a fabrication from Ukraine using ridiculous arguments (like corpses being living actors, Ukrainian forces planting the bodies in the town, or Ukrainians killing their own for a false flag) which was very quickly debunked using satellite imagery proving the chronology of Russian claims was impossible. We may never know what really happened in Bucha (at least before a few years to decades after the end of the war), but it remain that Russia will have to deal with the image of a war criminal for at least the rest of the war, which won't help them either on the international stage or on dealing with the population in occupied territory.
On the Russian side we also have seen a few public personality using a vocabulary which is frankly worrying and would have been better left in the gutter of History. Like the Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church claiming that the very existence of the Russian people is on the line and borderline making it a Holy war against a "decadent" Occident or in another register the diatribe of Timofeï Sergueïtsev :
 
 
I can only hope that those are isolated cases and that they do not reflect the public opinion, but that kind of discourse can only lead to a no-matter the cost and a no-compromises attitude which will lead to an escalation of the atrocity on both sides.

Depends on what both sides are willing to accept.
 
Russia is still sticking to the "special operation" narrative, meaning the political cost of mobilization or sending conscript into Ukraine would be high. It would mean admitting to the Russian population that the scale of the invasion was much bigger than initially reported and that they took not insignificant losses. Russian ground forces have about 280 000 soldiers about which a bit over 100 000 are tied up in Ukraine. Keep in mind that Russia still have to keep it's other borders secure (especially the border with China) and that the country is huge. So without access to conscripts or forces from other theatre they can't easily replenish their losses. All of this is compounded by the poor state of Russian logistics in Ukraine. Ukrainian know this and are targetting their supplies. They recently blown up an oil depot in Belgorod (Russia), which supply the forces in Kharkiv, using attack helicopter. Even if the Ukrainian deny it was them, the Russian have no reasons at all to blow up their own badly needed supplies, even for a false flag operation. On top of it force the local Russian population to see that the war came back right at their doorstep contradicting the narrative of the Kremlin.
 
As for Ukraine they are fighting on their own soil, so as you said the longer the fight goes on the higher civilian casualties will be. It all depends on what losses the Ukrainian population are willing to accept, but for now their moral is likely high (Russian troops stepped back from Kiev and they are fighting a defensive war to keep their independence). On the other hand Ukrainian forces so far denied engagement on open terrain to the Russian forces. They know that in open combat they will likely be defeated by Russian forces which have the edge in the air and in the overall quality of their material. So far they preserved some of their manoeuvrer capability by forcing the Russian in urban combat and being on the defensive, but now that they are going on the offensive their losses will be much higher and they could lose most of their remaining assets and be forced back into a passive defensive position. It's a big gamble.
 
The fight in the Donbass will most likely determine the future borders of the separatist republics and how much terrain will Ukraine lose during negotiations.
 
A slightly different matter is the worrying radicalization of both sides. We know that exactions against POW occurred on both sides and that both of them already partially disregard international law regarding POW (Publishing images of captured soldiers is normally forbidden for example). The massacre in Bucha will rile up the Ukrainians even more, possibly leading to even more exactions against Russian POW creating a negative feedback loop. This was aggravated when Russia, instead of denying their responsibility in Bucha and saying that they would investigate anyway (which would have been the smart choice) went and immediately claimed at the UN that all of it was a fabrication from Ukraine using ridiculous arguments (like corpses being living actors, Ukrainian forces planting the bodies in the town, or Ukrainians killing their own for a false flag) which was very quickly debunked using satellite imagery proving the chronology of Russian claims was impossible. We may never know what really happened in Bucha (at least before a few years to decades after the end of the war), but it remain that Russia will have to deal with the image of a war criminal for at least the rest of the war, which won't help them either on the international stage or on dealing with the population in occupied territory.
On the Russian side we also have seen a few public personality using a vocabulary which is frankly worrying and would have been better left in the gutter of History. Like the Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church claiming that the very existence of the Russian people is on the line and borderline making it a Holy war against a "decadent" Occident or in another register the diatribe of Timofeï Sergueïtsev :
 
 
I can only hope that those are isolated cases and that they do not reflect the public opinion, but that kind of discourse can only lead to a no-matter the cost and a no-compromises attitude which will lead to an escalation of the atrocity on both sides.

Did you check your account security?
I had once somebody just casually playing on my account for I don't know how long, despite securing it with two different email adress and a phone number.  I only noticed because he changed my default line-up on the US tree. Guy didn't even bothered trying to change my password to lock me out.
Managed to get him kicked out and had to add another layer of security on my account. Whole thing ended up being rather benign but it shouldn't have happened anyway.
Gajin account security is quite frankly utter shite.

1. This is effectively statement of fact. 2 possibilities - either Kiev operation was attempt to put pressure on Ukrainian leadership to make them surrender, or it was distrcting attack to suck in number of enemy troops.
2. This is just statements of intentions, this is not an agreement. Even if it will be put on paper, Ukrainian can exit a building where they signed it and claims "ain't doing that!" like they did with Minsk agreement. I have strong suspicion that all this dimplomacy stuff is mostly a show for both sides.
3. Nothing changed and unlikely to change until current leadership of Ukraine is in power. Taking into account recent banning of 11 opposition parties, the only way to change them is by force.
 
This war will take several more months and then even more months of special operations (like on North Caucausus) to clear 99% of opposition forces from taken territory. Negotiations are unlikely to produce any satisfactory results for both sides for quite some time.
 
 
Significant amount of our forces and armor was already spotted moving in from North and south directions of bult of UAF forces in Donbas (In directions of Izyum and Volnovakha).
 
Kupyansk town (in direction of Izyum):
 
To roughly Volnovakha region:

 
 
UAF have around 50-70k troops there as i heard, they are major forces and needs to be dealt with if Russian forces want to continue operation. Frontlines are way to long and attacking country with limited amount of troops in 6 directions in the same time is going to be costly.
 
   News were met with anger in military related groups on the net, which is understandable after videof of Ukrainians executing our POWs. Cool heads are waiting to see what happends next. Remember, in Syria Russia claimed to withdraw troops back in 2016, and you see how "decrease of activity" in Syria worked out - most important battles against ISIS and operations in Western Syria were completed.

Without surprise the French FDI will carry less weapons than the Greek's

 
http://www.opex360.com/2022/03/23/les-fregates-belhrra-de-la-marine-nationale-seront-moins-bien-equipees-que-celles-vendues-a-la-grece/
76 mm 2x20mm RCWS Seafire 500 for the radar 8 Exocet Block 3C 16 Aster 30B1 (instead of 32 for the Greeks) 2xTwin MU90 torpedo launchers (instead of 2xtriple launchers) No RAM or equivalent, but most importantly no jammer and reduced electronic warfare capability until at least 2026.
While the detection capability of those frigates (both in AAW and ASW) will be top of the line they'll barely have any self-protection capability (both because of the lack of jammer and possibly decoys as well as a lack of short-range missiles). They will be a nice addition to any naval task-force but will have troubles operating alone.
 
Also no increase in the number of "first line" frigates is planned. The objective remain 15 first line frigate by 2030 :
2 Horizon class (AAW) 8 FREMM (6 ASW + 2 with increased AAW capability) 5 FDI (ASW but with the best radar in the fleet for now) 3 FLF "second line" frigates will receive minimal upgrades while waiting for the delivery of the FDI.

Griffon, VBL and 10 RC in snow :
 
 

A video was just put out showcasing the current autoloader iteration of the K9A2 prototype.  
 
 

40 mm CTA ammo for the French Jaguar :
 

From left to right : Training ; HE ; Timed-fuze HE ; APFSDS

Flat bottom Stryker had 53 gallons fuel capacity, which is roughly 200 litres. On Stryker DVH this was increased to 63 gallons (238 litres).
 
For the sake of comparison: the Boxer has fuel tanks for 530 litres, VBCI has 420 litres fuel capacity, Patria AMV (Rosomak) has 325 litres capacity and Piranha IIIH of the Swiss Army has 320 litres fuel tank capacity.

40 mm CTA ammo for the French Jaguar :
 

From left to right : Training ; HE ; Timed-fuze HE ; APFSDS

40 mm CTA ammo for the French Jaguar :
 

From left to right : Training ; HE ; Timed-fuze HE ; APFSDS

Jaguar :
 

 
 
40 mm CTA ammo :
 
 
https://www.forcesoperations.com/a-canjuers-le-jaguar-ouvre-une-nouvelle-page-de-la-cavalerie-francaise/

Jaguar :
 

 
 
40 mm CTA ammo :
 
 
https://www.forcesoperations.com/a-canjuers-le-jaguar-ouvre-une-nouvelle-page-de-la-cavalerie-francaise/

I think Rimmy did a video about gameplay design problems with this game and it didn't looked good.
 
 

The An-225 is probably unsalvageable.
 
 
https://air-cosmos.com/article/mis-a-jour-l-antonov-an-225-mriya-serieusement-endommage-dans-son-hangar-en-ukraine-28653
 
There may be some hope if the wings are intact enough to be grafted on the unfinished cell of the second unit but with the fire there is no guarantee that they are still structurally sound.
 
https://air-cosmos.com/article/analyse-de-l-etat-de-l-antonov-an-225-mriya-apres-son-incendie-dans-son-hangar-en-ukraine-28667?

Truckers are getting attacked by Ukrainians nationalists in different Eastern Europen countries, damaged wheels, vehicles, etc.

Michael Kofman's thread from yesterday is worth a read IMO:
 
 

I seriously doubt that they would try to send it by plane directly in Ukraine.
Most likely it will be either plane or trains up to the neighbouring country (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Moldavia) and then most likely put on Ukrainian trucks at the frontier.
 
The real question is how the Ukrainian will avoid those convoy being destroyed (at least the one containing military aid) from the air as soon as they cross the border.
I just hope they won't do something stupid and mix humanitarian and military aid into the same convoy.
Which is most likely forbidden under international laws, but since everybody seem to be taking liberties with them lately...

Contract for the development and production of the Eurodrone MALE finally notified to Airbus
 

 
Even if the operational value of a twin engine, 10 tonnes / 27 m wingspan behemoth with performances barely above a MQ-9 Reaper is questionable at least it's a start :/
 

I could always be mistaken, but a video can be doctored as well.
Watch the video both at minimal speed and at normal speed. You'll notice that it is oddly stilted and that the flag never look quite right in it's environment (especially noticeable at lower speed). Plus a video not even making the effort of using a real narrator and coming from an obscure news channel should have a low trust capital to begin with.
 
Social media combined with the fact that everybody have a smartphone nowadays allows to generate and share a lot of raw data content. It also make it much harder to sift through all of it and determine what is trustworthy and what isn't. As a rule of thumb always treat what is coming through twitter and the like as suspect a priori. Especially if the info is shocking or surprising.
And then, even if the info turned out to be true, it would only be a single event, not a pattern until proven otherwise.