Beer
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Posts posted by Beer
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1 hour ago, Alzoc said:
DGA launched a request for the development and delivery of 10 aerial balloon equipped with an optronic ball for the French army.
The idea is to acquire a tool for area surveillance that would be as cheap as possible while still be very capable.
Beside being extremely cheap, balloons have the advantage to be very difficult to detect. They are obviously silent, have little to no heat signature, are difficult to see when high enough and can pretty much only be detected by radar.
There is a similar project ongoing here in Czechia with a name STRATOM. The aim is to have two semi-stationary baloons at an altitude of 25 km from where they can cover the whole country by electro-optical means. The horizont is at 570 km distance from that altitude which means that one such platform when used as communication relay can cover over 1000 km which is twice the size of Czechia. The baloon is said to be 32x12 meters large, 100 kg heavy with its own electric propulsion (using solar panels). The payload is modular. Part of the system is a software named MODES which shall be used for automatic search and tracking of various objects using machine learning. MOD signed a fixed contract in February this year but some development has been ongoing for several years. The price stated in the contract is less than 4 million Euro.
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15 hours ago, Cobras said:
It's not about using chinese chips, but buying western ones from China itself. Russia can make trade agreements for the goods they need, you don't need hard cash when you got natural resources.
Which means a total dependency on the goodwill of China plus paying a lot more for the same thing with neither guaranteed delivery volumes, nor dates.
Also the volume of resources China needs is finite. China won't buy more of anything than it needs and certainly not for the same price. China is not some sort of cash machine into which you throw whatever amount of resources and get payed for that.
You can exchange resources for other goods only for not getting the hard cash you would otherwise get. Since the Russian state budget is from about one half financed by oil and gas revenues, trading the resources for goods means loosing another part of money running the state. Take into account that EU has been importing twice more oil from Russia than China and 12x more gas (!) and that this source of cash is going to be stopped, i.e. the largest singular contributor of the state budget of the RF is going to vanish. In the near future Russia would need to seek every possible source of hard cash and prioritize it above goods exchange.
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5 hours ago, Alzoc said:
Yes but if China become the sole supplier of critical components to Russia and their main buyer for natural resources China will be the one who set the prices, not Russia.
The main risk long term is to see an increased vassalization of Russia to China. China is already the senior partner in the relationship between the two country, and regardless of the issue of the war it will only get worse at times goes on (heck if Russia is actually perceived as winning the war, the sanctions could always potentially become worse).
A Russia dependent on China for it's key imports and exports will have to sell it's resources for cheap and China may be actually able to get their hands on a few key technology they still have issue with (like fighters jet engines), potentially driving Russia out of the weapons export market by proposing cheaper alternatives with a similar technological level. Reduced income from sale of raw resources (potentially compensated somewhat by increased market price) and a civilian and military industry that's becoming less competitive will only see the Russian economy worsen.
The longer this war drags on the worse it will be for everybody but China :
- Europe will be lacking energy and raw resources (at least in the short term) and is currently spending a lot to plug the biggest gaps (abyss) in it's defence (though the later will probably help in the long run).
- For the US, in the short term they will see Russia disappear as a threat (not that Russia was much more than a regional power with access to nuclear weapons at this point anyway) and they will be able to sell gas and weapons to Europe. Long term they'll have to face China as a country with access to cheap Russian natural resources and that didn't spent anything (be it resources, money or military potential) during the war in Ukraine (same problem apply to Europe as well).
- Russia will end up in a much worse situation by the end of this war, that much is a given at this point (Worse economy, severely depleted military potential, a part of the educated population having fled the country, isolation on the international scene, etc). The only question is by how much.
- As for the rest of the world, they'll have to suffer from the long term consequences of a major economical crisis potentially coupled in the short term with a lack of wheat for some country.
Also keep in mind that China may not want to alienate it's western economical partners too much (at least for a time) so the support it will provide to Russia may be limited (potentially making Russia fall faster and harder and thus cheaper to buy out when they'll get really desperate).
Really the best scenario for the world as a whole (Ukraine and Russia will get shafted in one way or the other anyway) is for the war to end as fast as possible (which should be obvious at this point). One reason for the war to end would be one side suffering unsustainable attrition be it in men or material. Russia still have the mobilization card to play (but that may be a hard sell to the Russian people) and potentially greater reserves of soviet era material. Ukraine meanwhile, may gain the technological edge if western weapons supply goes on and they have a population that is ready for full mobilization. On the other hand, Ukrainian moral seems to be flagging lately (at least in Donbass) and it's their country which will be in ruin when the dust settle. Russia could also stop the invasion if they manage to take enough of the Donbass to sell it as a victory, but Putin and the associated system is really playing their political future on this war (from the outside it looks like more and more that they locked themselves in a do or die situation) so it will have to be somewhat significant gains.
The way I see the situation right now is that Ukraine is aiming for maximal attrition of Russian forces in order to make the political and economical cost of the war unbearable while refusing to fall back in Donbass (even if regrouping could help militarily) and pushing back where they can (like in Kherson which would also double as slap in the face for Russia if they actually manage to retake it). Ukrainians knows that every territory they lose now, they'll have a very hard time reclaiming it once the war is over. Russia on the other hand is trying to gain as much control of the Donbass as possible in order to achieve a victory of some kind while taking minimal risks to limit their losses (advancing slowly while destroying everything in front of them by a massive use of artillery).
There is also a risk that Russia may escalate the conflict in some way (Full scale mobilization for example), the rethorics of some Russian reporter or even politicians is becoming increasingly disconnected from reality and we are hearing absurdities like a presenter saying on Russian state TV that we have entered WW3 and that Russia will have to demilitarize the entirety of NATO :
Or a member of the Douma seriously saying that Russia should kidnap a minister of defence from a country member of NATO while they are in official visit in Kiev.
Words have a meaning, and it should be high time that the Russian elites remember that. Because spouting that kind of non sense all days long on public channels will end up leaving a mark in the long run.
I'd add another point related to China because not everything caused by this war benefits China. It's true that the more dependent on China Russia is, the cheaper resources China can get etc. On the other hand by starting this war Russia caused a headache to China by removing the option of ground trade route China - EU. EU is by far the largest trade partner of China but its trade routes are essentially controlled by US NAVY. In case of war between China and US the US is effectively able to starve Chinese economy by blocking its overseas trade. For that reason (and for possible switch of its trade from Dollar to Juan) China needs an alternative trade route which can not be controlled by US but that option basically disappeared when Russia attacked Ukraine.
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Are you sure the Caesars in Ukraine are equipped with the muzzle radar? Also the 40 km maximum range applies for base-bleed projectile, not the common NATO HE. Are you sure that Ukraine was supplied with base-bleed ammunition or even SPACIDO kits?
Yes, I know that the standard HE disperion looks like an elipse. I think the values stated in STANAG 4635 gives the longitudinal axis of the elipse.
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1 hour ago, LoooSeR said:
Was posted by Colli in our discord, reposting here
When even terrorists now have 3rd gen ATGM but your country don't
Except there is no Javelin on the photo but APILAS and SMAW-D. Both of those have been used in Syria for years. The whole thing is most likely stagged for propaganda purpose.
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1 hour ago, Serge said:
No.
accuracy is achieved until 3/4 of the maximum range.That's not true. The dispersion of fire is a function of range through the whole range, mainly because of the time the projectile flies (it is affected by wind through the whole flight).
Per STANAG 4635 the standard CEP50 for unguided HE projectile is 0,56% at 10 km (56 meters); 0,65% of range at 20 km (130 meters); 0,86% of range at 30 km (258 meters) and 1,15% of range at 40 km (460 meters).
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On 5/30/2022 at 10:56 AM, Wiedzmin said:
Looks like a gun and mantlet from some would-be Panther
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On 5/29/2022 at 1:02 PM, Alzoc said:
That's a possibility though I doubt it. I think Ukraine still have a few 152 mm guns from the soviet era as well as their own truck based 155 mm (in very small number), so it's not like they never used artillery with a greater range than ~20km.
A software or programming error is always possible I guess though it would greatly diminish the value of those guns. What's the point of having a very small number of guns that can outrange Russian artillery if you treat it like a regular 155 mm L39 or a 122 mm D-30? We might get an answer when the PzH 2000 arrive in Ukraine (guessing they'll adapt the software for integration as well).
When you don't use guided ammo the hit probability at ranges over 20 km is getting drastically reduced. When you need to fire just a few rounds and quickly disappear you have to do it from closer ranges to have a chance to actually destroy the target. For longer ranges guided ammo or a long sustained fire is needed which means that the long range guns bring real advantage only when used with guided rounds, without them not that much.
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14 hours ago, Lord_James said:
This photo is terrible, what tank is that? T-84?
T-84 Oplot obr. 1999. Allegedly only five are operational in the whole Ukraine.
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The point is that even transition even to very similar alternative chips is very time consuming and very costly. Using some Chinese chips instead of US ones is much easier said than done. First the Chinese must produce something similar. After that they must be villing to sell that. They also must have production capacities for that. And last but not least there is huge programming, testing, validation etc. work to be done before the product is ready for production with new chips. It's an endeavour for years... and in the very last Russian must have money to pay that.
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4 minutes ago, LoooSeR said:
A god damn KamAZ truck on top of which Pantsir is mounted on have bunch of important parts being made in other countries. IIRC few notes about that is in car thread.
Yes, I worked for many years in automotive and I am well avare of the fact that basically all manufacturers all over the world use the very same components (there are many reasons for that).
With civil aviation it's even much more stuff. The moment Putin decided to attack Ukraine he also signed a death sentence to the MS-21. The program cost billions but now the plane can be directly placed in Zhukovsky museum.
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On 3/14/2022 at 7:59 PM, N-L-M said:
There's nothing kinematically preventing missiles like Javelin from diving vertically (other than perhaps a reduction in range), and it may even be a software-defined parameter, so it's not exactly a question answerable by open sources.
IMHO no. To strike vertically the missile would need to climb very very high above the target to be able to turn to vertical which would at least drastically reduced its range and most likely lead to loosing the target from the seeker FOV.
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Unofficially our infamous tender was also won by the CV-90 Mk. IV. Let's see if Slovak polititians actually buy them or piss themselves like our previous government (we will probably buy them later anyway but for much higher price than according to the original offer).
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On 5/27/2022 at 2:14 AM, Ramlaen said:
If Russia was just fighting what Ukraine had (or was just fighting Ukraine for that matter) the war would have been over in the now infamous 72 hour claims.
That's completely wrong, sorry.
- Lord_James, Serge and Żółć
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On 5/26/2022 at 12:55 AM, Cobras said:
Russia doesnt rely on foreign semi-conductors for their military, they used to have France supply their T-90s with the Catherine thermal imagers, but from 2015 onwards its all domestically produced (product of early Western sanctions against Russia). You dont need a 7nm GA100 level of silicon in a Kalibr missile, 65nm* is enough for any modern military need.
*28nm is from TSMC, but they have the tech for it, but not for mass production, yet.This article contains information about the amount of western-made chips in four particular Russian weapon systems.
Ka-52 electro-optical turret - 22 US-made ones, 1 South Korean one (Texas Instruments, IDT, Altera USA, Burr-Brown, Analog Devices Inc., Micron Technology, Linear Technology and TE Connectivity)
Kh-101 ALCM - 35 US-made chips (Texas Instruments, Atmel Corp. Rochester Electronics, Cypress Semiconductor, Maxim Integrated, XILINX, Infineon Technologies, Intel, Onsemi, and Micron Technology)
Barnaul-T - 8 US-made chips (Intel, Micrel, Micron Technology and Atmel Corp)
Pantsir S1 - 5 US-made chips (AMD, Rochester Electronics, Texas Instruments, and Linear Technology)
We can safely bet that basically everything bar simple infantry weapons contains western electronics which can not be replaced in short term.
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500 HIMARS is more than what was produced overal till today and a lot more than what even US army has. I guess the number will be drastically reduced.
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18 hours ago, Cobras said:
Thats why Ukraine is claiming 5x+ russian casualties, they think every russian vehicle lost = 100% crew dead. Having a 0,5 casualty per tank is pretty good by any standards, while every western mouthpiece says that the T-series tanks are death traps.
Ehm, no. Very large part of these tanks lost by 1st GTA was captured undamaged. Using them to count the casualty rate is nonsense.
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On 5/16/2022 at 9:59 PM, Beer said:
There is something leaking about the Czech-German deal I mentioned in another thread. Nothing official so take it with a grain of salt.
The deal is said to consist of
- 20 Leopard 2A4 for free
- 40 Leopard 2A7+ on commercial contract
- some recovery and engineering vehicles
The Leo 2A4 shall be used for initial transition period and training before the newly built 2A7+ arrive. After that the A4 will be probably modernized.
If it goes through it may also affect the already started project for another upgrade of our 30 T-72M4 tanks which shall consist mainly of a new FCS and optics (it is still in quotation phase).
Today our MOD released an official statement about the deal. You can find it here in Czech. In short it differs from the previously posted rumors only in details. The deal shall be signed this summer.
- 14 Leopard 2A4 + 1 Buffel for free, to be deliverd in half a year, to be modernized to 2A7+ level later
- up to 50 new Leopard 2A7+ (including specialized variants) on commercial contract, to be delivered "shortly afterwards"
All tanks to be ordered in cooperation with German MOD under the same or very similar conditions (including price) with Czech industry involvement in deliveries of both Czech and German tanks (new production line?). Details of that are not available atm.
The MOD also commented on the option to buy Abrams. They said they were interested but the US offered a delivery date only after 2030.
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There is something leaking about the Czech-German deal I mentioned in another thread. Nothing official so take it with a grain of salt.
The deal is said to consist of
- 20 Leopard 2A4 for free
- 40 Leopard 2A7+ on commercial contract
- some recovery and engineering vehicles
The Leo 2A4 shall be used for initial transition period and training before the newly built 2A7+ arrive. After that the A4 will be probably modernized.
If it goes through it may also affect the already started project for another upgrade of our 30 T-72M4 tanks which shall consist mainly of a new FCS and optics (it is still in quotation phase).
- Clan_Ghost_Bear and Rico
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Ukraine released alleged leaked documents from Russian 1st guards tank army concerning unit losses as of 15th March. The documents seems to be legit.
It shows rather low number of casualties in comparison with absolutely stunning vehicle losses. I remember the 1st GTA lost huge number of vehicles in its initial push just being stuck in mud or running out of fuel which is confirmed by the document.
Anyway the total number of casualties after 3 weeks of fighting was 61 KIA, 209 WIA, 44 MIA, 96 POW. Altogether 410.
The number of lost tanks per unit during the same period. Overal it's 125 tanks.
1st tank regiment, 2nd motorrifle division: 45 T-72B3 obr.2016 (of 93!)
12th tank regiment, 4th guards tank division: 18 T-80U
13th tank regiment, 4th guards tank division: 47 T-80UE (of 83!)
423rd motorrifle regiment, 4th guards tank division: 6 T-80BV
27th motorized rifle brigade: 9 T-90A
This status is from just days before another defeat in the battle of Trostianec which caused another large losses followed by retreat from the whole Sumy and Chernigiv regions. Also if we go by the number of T-80U/UE tanks from this time period showed on Oryx's blog we can see that the actual number of losses is even higher than listed by him.
- Cobras, watch_your_fire and Voodoo
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7 hours ago, Żółć said:
Soooo... Polish Armaments Group just signed a deal for the production of a new tank destroyer armed with Brimstone missiles. Thus Poland becomes the fifth customer for the missile, and the second one (after Ukrain) to field it in a ground launch version. It will look similar to the one on the graphic, although it is meant to use a different chassis.
and here is the new chassis
Here is the link for the official statement about the establishment of a consortium responsible for the production of said tank destroyer, and here is a link to the statement talking about cooperation with MBDA and the usage of the Brimstone missile.
The vehicle is Patriot II from Excalibur Army using Tatra chassis. Here you can find more about the vehicle.
https://patriot.excaliburarmy.cz/
EDIT: I can see that it's also bing advertised as Husar made by Polish Stalowa Wola. Anyway it's the same vehicle probably developed in joint venture.
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2 hours ago, LoooSeR said:
PP-2000 SMG in hands of VKS pilots in Ukraine
I think that this is Rosgvardiya helicopter, not VKS.
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33 minutes ago, Jägerlein said:
Beer=Czechia
German Idio--uhm I mean politicians and armchair experts proposing ring-exchanges before asking somebody who knows shit= SlovakiaSlovenia, not Slovakia.
- Jägerlein and Dragonstriker
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Ukrainian Civil War Thread: All Quiet on the Sturgeon Front
in Open Discussion
Posted
Crowdfunding campaign is runing in several countries including ours. The difference is only in that it's not being addressed for particular weapon systems but Ukrainean embasy uses the money to buy whatever weapons it needs (mostly from local producers). I don't know how much money was collected here to this day because there are several parallel channels but 6 weeks ago it was over 30 million USD for weapons and roughly twice more for humanitarian aid.