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Bayraktar TB-2 versus Russian Mi-8AMTSh on the Zmijinyi island. 

 

And some more Raptor crafts. It looks like after the cruiser Moscow is gone this part of the Black sea became a free hunting ground for TB-2 as there are no AD/airforce elements present to prevent them doing so. 

 

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Snake island is so far from Crimea that it can't really be protected without ships providing SAM umbrella , even so given how the war is fought(ukraines near unlimited ISR and drone resources courtesy of western sponsors) i don't see much use for snake island , who ever occupies it be it Russians or Ukrainians is literally a sitting duck , while island does not provide any offensive capability . With appearance of new artillery and even 155mm guided shells , Ukrainians can literally shot at it from mainland shores . But if they man it Russians can bomb them at will as well.

 

 

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6 hours ago, mr.T said:

Snake island is so far from Crimea that it can't really be protected without ships providing SAM umbrella , even so given how the war is fought(ukraines near unlimited ISR and drone resources courtesy of western sponsors) i don't see much use for snake island , who ever occupies it be it Russians or Ukrainians is literally a sitting duck , while island does not provide any offensive capability . With appearance of new artillery and even 155mm guided shells , Ukrainians can literally shot at it from mainland shores . But if they man it Russians can bomb them at will as well.

 

 

 

IMHO the thing about the island is that if ever Ukraineans manage to fortify it somehow they can attack anything sailing along the whole western Crimean coastline up to Sevastopol and Balaklava by placing a neptune battery or two on the island. Sure it's tiny and therefore extremely difficult to defend but it's also the only way for Ukraine to get Sevastopol within their range. 

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I think it's more down to the economical zone that come with it once the war end.

If I remember correctly there is some gas reserve exploitable in the sea around.

 

For military interest it can only serve as a radar station for the Russian to monitor Ukrainian air traffic, and the same (plus serve as a potential platform to launch anti-ship missiles) for the Ukrainian. For both side, staying there require a beefy anti-air cover which make it probably not worth it. My guess is that both side will make sure that the other doesn't settle there and try to occupy the area just before the end of the war. in order to claim the resources that goes with it.

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Looking at this tweet from H I Sutton it doesn't look like the island would be abandoned (yet). Anyway Admiral Makarov was found near Sevastopol. 

 

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On 6/7/2021 at 11:53 PM, mr.T said:

All the east european Rusophobes seem to think TB2 is some sort of magical anti russian kyptonite that could actually fight Russian army ! Based on experience against rag tag 3rd world militias with limited or no AD

This didn't age so well...

 

 

On 6/8/2021 at 10:46 AM, LoooSeR said:

You clearly didn't followed Ukrainian events.

Neither this one...

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Actually, they are right.  TB2 actually hasn't done shit in stopping Russians.

 

Also, the latest.

 

https://t.me/rezident_ua/12134

 

Our source in the OP said that in the last two weeks we have lost more Bayraktar TB2 than in the entire war. The failure of the operation to storm the Serpentine and unsuccessful flights to military facilities in Russia cost us 50 Baikatars. The Turkish side has already expressed its dissatisfaction with the use of drones, but the General Staff has its own vision on the use of Bayraktar TB2.

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50 seems to be very inflated number (for whatever reason) but even if it was true it's more than clear that TB-2 is not a suitable weapon for penetrating into well defended airspace. It works better than I thought when used reasonably. 

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3 hours ago, RobertV said:

Actually, they are right.  TB2 actually hasn't done shit in stopping Russians.

 

Also, the latest.

 

https://t.me/rezident_ua/12134

 

Our source in the OP said that in the last two weeks we have lost more Bayraktar TB2 than in the entire war. The failure of the operation to storm the Serpentine and unsuccessful flights to military facilities in Russia cost us 50 Baikatars. The Turkish side has already expressed its dissatisfaction with the use of drones, but the General Staff has its own vision on the use of Bayraktar TB2.

 

Open channel recording of Bayraktar TB2 hitting Russian Raptor boats:

▪️“81, I'm 85. Where is the air support?”
▪️“85, I am 81. No air support”
▪️“How long has it been gone? Bayraktar is shooting, fuck! 4 missiles fired! 82 and 83 motionless! The drone is after me! I'm alone!"

 

 

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1 minute ago, RobertV said:

Some limited success doesn't disprove the point of TB-2's being pretty fucking  insignificant in grand scheme of things.  

 

The grand scheme of things consists of large number of events which appear to be pretty insignifficant. In fact nearly everything appear insignificant standing next to the artillery (not only in this war) but it doesn't mean you can go to war with just artillery and nothing else. 

 

 

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15 hours ago, barbaria said:

This didn't age so well...

 

 

Neither this one...

Church of TB2 appeared again.

 

4 hours ago, Beer said:

50 seems to be very inflated number (for whatever reason) but even if it was true it's more than clear that TB-2 is not a suitable weapon for penetrating into well defended airspace. It works better than I thought when used reasonably. 

I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine lost more TB2s than they had before the war. Footage from Zmeiny island, IIRC, was recorded by the UAV that during march 23rd was on factory test flights in Turkey.

 

1 hour ago, Beer said:

The grand scheme of things consists of large number of events which appear to be pretty insignifficant. In fact nearly everything appear insignificant standing next to the artillery (not only in this war) but it doesn't mean you can go to war with just artillery and nothing else. 

TB2 isn't greatest UAV in its own weight/range/carry capacity class, and yes, combined arms needs more than long range cannons with engines attached to them to work. 

 

UAV do change how things work on many levels, even on small scale. Synergy and shit like that.

 

   One of lessons learned from recent wars and specifically in Ukraine that each small infantry unit, down to 10-12 guys section needs their own small UAV, something like DJI Mavic 3, for many tactical applications. Benefits are really big, as was noted by for example RSOTM guys after their Mariupol combat. Mortar teams with such quadrocopter-equipped spotter is significantly more capable. AGS crew needs to be increased from 2-3 to 4-5 guys to be used well, one of those guys should also have that flying toy. And we are not even talking about bigger ones. There are bunch of niches yet to be occuipied (or at least shown to work in real war). You don't see much of praises about those civilian toys, but if they are used in quantities, they have big impact on casualties, how fighting is done.

   Hell, they are one of reasons why in Ukrainian war (according to head of Novorossiya aid center) around 90% of casualties are explosion-caused or from frag and bullets are reason for nearly insignificant percentage of casualties.

 

   TB2 isn't greatest because it is such an incredibly designed wunderwaffe. It is capable tool, and reasons for being capable is optics, price tag and experience build behind those things being used in noticeable numbers, which play their role in use of other weapons and troops simply because this is UAV that works and avaliable for purchase.

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One particularly important UAV-related point we can take from the current war is that in the drone age crossing rivers became even more difficult than in the past. With so many UAVs it's basically impossible to build a pontoon bridge which stands for more than one day before it's found and destroyed by artillery/MLRS. 

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General Atomics is proposing a kit for transform it's MQ-9B into STOL aircraft capable of operating from a LHD.

 

 

https://www.ga-asi.com/ga-asi-grows-mojave-line-with-new-mq-9b-stol-package

 

Remain to see the minimum length of the flight deck necessary for the drone to take off and land as well as it's width (the MQ-9 has a wingspan of 20m).

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Drones in contested environment need to be considered dispensable. In the past wars like Afghanistan ,Syria ,Libya ,Irak a drone like Predator or TB-2 could rack up lots of missions before suffering a loss , here its unlimited budget and supply that is keeping the TB-2 in the fight inUkraine, in any scenario where West wouldn't be dropping 50 billion$ in two months there would be nothing left in the skies. Now as long as there are TB-2 that can be bought, Ukraine can replenish we are all paying for it, and when they burn through stock of those US will supply Predator or similar.

 

In many ways small suicide drones might be more bang for the buck , end of the day if TB-2 can't drop more than 4 munitions before its shot down its kinda expensive to loose after a flight or two not to mention it needs an airstrip to operate.

 

 

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A few days ago Polish MOD signed a deal with one of our companies, for the delivery of reconnaissance and strike drones. Said UAVs will form the backbone of the so-called "Gladius" system https://tvn24.pl/tvn24-news-in-english/poland-purchases-more-unmanned-search-and-strike-drone-systems-5701114. "Gladius" will be presumably based on WB Group W2MPIR system https://defence24.com/w2mpir-a2ad-elimination-tool-by-the-wb-group although with some modifications and tailoring to meet the needs of MOD. What is interesting, is that it will be fielded under the command of our artillery regiments, with its main goal being to strike high value and temporarily available targets while providing accurate information for artillery systems. 

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21 hours ago, mr.T said:

Drones in contested environment need to be considered dispensable. In the past wars like Afghanistan ,Syria ,Libya ,Irak a drone like Predator or TB-2 could rack up lots of missions before suffering a loss , here its unlimited budget and supply that is keeping the TB-2 in the fight inUkraine, in any scenario where West wouldn't be dropping 50 billion$ in two months there would be nothing left in the skies. Now as long as there are TB-2 that can be bought, Ukraine can replenish we are all paying for it, and when they burn through stock of those US will supply Predator or similar.

 

In many ways small suicide drones might be more bang for the buck , end of the day if TB-2 can't drop more than 4 munitions before its shot down its kinda expensive to loose after a flight or two not to mention it needs an airstrip to operate.

 

 

 

Neither you, nor me or whomever else on this forum knows what is the average mission ratio of the TB-2 on Ukraine or for what all they have been used for. Without offering any hard data this is a not a topic for any serious discussion. 

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On 5/11/2022 at 8:56 PM, Beer said:

One particularly important UAV-related point we can take from the current war is that in the drone age crossing rivers became even more difficult than in the past. With so many UAVs it's basically impossible to build a pontoon bridge which stands for more than one day before it's found and destroyed by artillery/MLRS. 

That will depend highly on AA and how far bridge is from a frontline. 

 

A bit unrelated - RSOTM "Admin" one time worked with Russian army officer (colonel IIRC) and was showing them feed from his DJI Mavic 3 drone with thermals and 28x zoom and colonel was like "And you can buy this thing in a shop?". I'm cringing at how rag tax proxies are more up to date with warfighting than their "big brother".

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