Polish Armoured Vehicles

[Beer]

7 hours ago, Żółć said:

Soooo... Polish Armaments Group just signed a deal for the production of a new tank destroyer armed with Brimstone missiles. Thus Poland becomes the fifth customer for the missile, and the second one (after Ukrain) to field it in a ground launch version. It will look similar to the one on the graphic, although it is meant to use a different chassis. 

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 and here is the new chassis 

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Here is the link for the official statement about the establishment of a consortium responsible for the production of said tank destroyer, and here is a link to the statement talking about cooperation with MBDA and the usage of the Brimstone missile.

And what is even more interesting is that according to the MBDA press release, Brimstone missiles are going to be produced (under licence?) in Poland.

 

The vehicle is Patriot II from Excalibur Army using Tatra chassis. Here you can find more about the vehicle. 

https://patriot.excaliburarmy.cz/

 

EDIT: I can see that it's also bing advertised as Husar made by Polish Stalowa Wola. Anyway it's the same vehicle probably developed in joint venture. 

[Żółć]

13 hours ago, Beer said:

 

The vehicle is Patriot II from Excalibur Army using Tatra chassis. Here you can find more about the vehicle. 

https://patriot.excaliburarmy.cz/

 

EDIT: I can see that it's also bing advertised as Husar made by Polish Stalowa Wola. Anyway it's the same vehicle probably developed in joint venture. 

Some time ago Huta Stalowa Wola (HSW) signed a cooperation agreement with Tatra. The subject of the contract is the design and delivery of a new 4x4 vehicle with complete technical documentation enabling the production of the vehicle in Poland. In my humble opinion the vehicle will use many elements from Patriot II and T 815-7 chassis, whilst being a new product and (from the legal perspective) a different one than Patriot II. 

[Żółć]

Good Afternoon, Good Evening, and Good Night. Around 40 minutes ago Polish MOD announced that they have sent out a Letter of Request for the acquisition of 500x M142 HIMARS launchers. The best part is, that this information comes completely out of the blue, and everyone is pretty shocked. There were no prior announcements that we want to buy more HIMARS, let alone 500x launchers. It is mind boggling.  https://twitter.com/mblaszczak/status/1529754207284301827?s=20&t=uRuNLSM3IoNU8xp_ixJW6g

 If they buy those 500x HIMARS, if this LoR takes the form of an LOA agreement, Poland will buy more HIMARS than so far produced.

[Alzoc]

Well MLRS (and artillery in general) have once again proved that they are key in modern warfare, so I expect everybody to strengthen their artillery forces. 500 of them though... that's at least €2.6 billions (just a rough estimate based on the unitary cost for the US).

 

Where the hell will Poland find that money? The EU emergency fund will help but it's only €500 millions for 2023-2024 (to be divided amongst the 27). Then there is the EDF which is €8 billions for 2021-2027 but unlike emergency funds, it is only aimed toward collaborative long term European projects, not for off the shelf purchases. I'm probably forgetting other available funds (more will likely be made available anyway) and Poland can reasonably argue that they are now the first line of defense. But still, that would be a lot of money to dump in only one country (one that already receive a large share of EU funds in normal time).

[Beer]

500 HIMARS is more than what was produced overal till today and a lot more than what even US army has. I guess the number will be drastically reduced. 

[Żółć]

10 hours ago, Alzoc said:

Well MLRS (and artillery in general) have once again proved that they are key in modern warfare, so I expect everybody to strengthen their artillery forces. 500 of them though... that's at least €2.6 billions (just a rough estimate based on the unitary cost for the US).

 

Where the hell will Poland find that money? The EU emergency fund will help but it's only €500 millions for 2023-2024 (to be divided amongst the 27). Then there is the EDF which is €8 billions for 2021-2027 but unlike emergency funds, it is only aimed toward collaborative long term European projects, not for off the shelf purchases. I'm probably forgetting other available funds (more will likely be made available anyway) and Poland can reasonably argue that they are now the first line of defense. But still, that would be a lot of money to dump in only one country (one that already receive a large share of EU funds in normal time).

According to military journalists in Poland, in near future, we will be buying some 122mm rocket artillery pieces (polish made BM-21 Grad offsprings) and more 155mm SPH  (Krab, maybe Kryl II). If that is to be true, HIMARS is just the beginning. As to the price. €2.6 billion is in my opinion an underestimation. In 2019 we ordered 20 HIMARS launchers (and all necessary equipment, training, logistics etc.) for 1,5 billion zlotys ~€325 million. I understand that it is very, very simplistic math, and generally, we should not count this way, but if we were to buy those 500x launchers for the same price as in 2019, we will pay for them around €8.125 billion. And about the money... i don't think it will come from EU funds. According to my knowledge, Poland generally doesn't spend its share of EU funds on armament and acquisition of new weapons. If i were to guess and point at what will be the source of funds for those 500x HIMARSes, I'd say debt and treasury bonds. 

 

3 hours ago, Beer said:

500 HIMARS is more than what was produced overal till today and a lot more than what even US army has. I guess the number will be drastically reduced. 

Yes, it will be more than was produced for users combined. About the second part... if you were asked mi that a few hours ago, i would agree. Now I'm not so sure.  

[Alzoc]

51 minutes ago, Żółć said:

€2.6 billion is in my opinion an underestimation

Yes that was based on the price unitary price for the American M142, so the export price will indeed be higher.

 

51 minutes ago, Żółć said:

And about the money... i don't think it will come from EU funds. According to my knowledge, Poland generally doesn't spend its share of EU funds on armament and acquisition of new weapons. If i were to guess and point at what will be the source of funds for those 500x HIMARSes, I'd say debt and treasury bonds. 

 

What I mean is that Poland have been buying or asking for a lot of hardware recently. Between the M1A2, 32 F-35, asking Germany if theoretically Polish T-72s sent to Ukraine could be replaced by Leo 2 at A6 or A7 standard, the K2PL being unlikely but still possibility, and as you said even more locally made MLRS and SPG. 500 MLRS (not even counting the locally made ones) for a country of roughly 40 millions inhabitant is gross overkill and it's hard to take that kind of announcement seriously.

 

As I said, I understand that Poland find itself potentially at the frontline and that the invasion of Ukraine proved to a lot of Eastern European country that they were right to fear a Russian aggression. I also understand that most European army find themselves in the need to urgently plug some gaps in their armed forces. But the numbers and the variety of weapon systems that Poland is asking for or is trying to acquire is simply ludicrous. Logistics and maintenance cost will be ridiculously high, buying a system is all well and good and can be done by increasing the debt, but maintaining it in the long run will cost money as well. I'm not saying this to be rude but Poland, while far from being poor (8th biggest economy in Europe if you go by GDP), isn't the richest country around either. I genuinely don't see how Poland will fund so many different programs and purchases at the same time and more importantly how it will keep all of this equipment operational in the long run.

 

Instead of buying a massive amount of weapons from abroad like a gulf Petro-monarchie, wouldn't Poland be better served by rationalizing it's armed forces (one type of MBT, one type of MLRS, etc) and strengthening it's local defence industry?

[Lord_James]

It looks like they’re panic buying stuff, but I don’t see a point: on even a second thought, the Russian army is having a hard time pushing through what little the Ukraine had. Ukraine industry was in very poor shape before this invasion, and the quality of the few military vehicles and arms she did produce was questionable, and Poland is in a much better place than Ukraine. After the poor showing of the Russian army, they are probably not going to attempt any invasion against mildly competent forces in a while, which would give Poland enough time to develop her arms industry and get some of those projects into production. 

[Ramlaen]

1 hour ago, Lord_James said:

It looks like they’re panic buying stuff, but I don’t see a point: on even a second thought, the Russian army is having a hard time pushing through what little the Ukraine had. Ukraine industry was in very poor shape before this invasion, and the quality of the few military vehicles and arms she did produce was questionable, and Poland is in a much better place than Ukraine. After the poor showing of the Russian army, they are probably not going to attempt any invasion against mildly competent forces in a while, which would give Poland enough time to develop her arms industry and get some of those projects into production. 

 

If Russia was just fighting what Ukraine had (or was just fighting Ukraine for that matter) the war would have been over in the now infamous 72 hour claims.

[Lord_James]

1 hour ago, Ramlaen said:

 

If Russia was just fighting what Ukraine had (or was just fighting Ukraine for that matter) the war would have been over in the now infamous 72 hour claims.

I wouldn’t think it would have been over in 72 hours, even without donations to Ukraine. The mad max “drive fast” strategy the Russian army was using was bound to stall out quickly, taking into account how little they protected their logistics at that point in the war. It would be much more favorable on the Russians side if there was no external assistance, but I don’t think that Ukraine would have been steam rolled as implied without the military aid. I’m just an idiot on the internet though, but willing to be proven wrong on the appropriate thread. 

[Żółć]

12 hours ago, Alzoc said:

(...)  hard to take that kind of announcement seriously.

I agree and don't believe that we will buy those 500x launchers. Currently, we are only asking the USA if they would sell us that amount of equipment and for what price. I won't be surprised if, in the final contract, the number of launchers gets reduced. Although the math (number of launchers needed) does add up. We have four divisions each with three brigades. There are also paratroopers and air cavalry but they don't count. Currently, each division has an artillery regiment with two rocket artillery units (24x launchers each) and two SPH units (24x SPH each), and each brigade has one such unit. If we were to lower the number of HIMARS launchers from 24x to 18x (as Americans have), we would get 18x times twelve (brigades) plus 18x time eight (number of rocket artillery units in divisional artillery regiments) which sums up to 396 launchers. What about the rest then, MOD said that we want to buy close to 500x launchers. Well... an educated guess that is currently circulating in Poland offers two explanations. Either we want to form a new separate artillery brigade at an Army level, and the additional launchers are meant for them, or the MOD wants to form a new (fifth) division: three artillery units for each brigade and two for the division itself would bring the total amount of launchers to 486x which is very close to 500x stated by to MOD. If you want my opinion, whatever they are gonna do the whole concept is ludicrous.

 

12 hours ago, Alzoc said:

As I said, I understand that Poland find itself potentially at the frontline and that the invasion of Ukraine proved to a lot of Eastern European country that they were right to fear a Russian aggression. I also understand that most European army find themselves in the need to urgently plug some gaps in their armed forces. But the numbers and the variety of weapon systems that Poland is asking for or is trying to acquire is simply ludicrous. Logistics and maintenance cost will be ridiculously high, buying a system is all well and good and can be done by increasing the debt, but maintaining it in the long run will cost money as well. I'm not saying this to be rude but Poland, while far from being poor (8th biggest economy in Europe if you go by GDP), isn't the richest country around either. I genuinely don't see how Poland will fund so many different programs and purchases at the same time and more importantly how it will keep all of this equipment operational in the long run.

So there are a few things to talk about. In many areas our armed forces are outdated, and the gaps that need to be filled are more than 30 years old, there is no denying that. But, our politicians are running rampant, trying to prove to their voters that they take defence seriously, so they are buying everything they can get their hands on. This is very bad, and many people see this, but that is the case with populists they don't care about the long run, what will be in 15/20 years, so arguments about logistics, maintenance and life cycle costs are not something that is being taken into account by our civil administration that is running the army. You are not rude to Poland, you are speaking rationally, and I fully agree with you. Rationality is simply not a trait that is highly valued ;). Adding to our politicians, there are our generals. To put it simply, our armed forces don't care and don't think about the cost of equipment or (generally speaking) economy and industry. They only want to get good equipment and as fast as possible, that's why we chose Abrams, because (simplification) one of our generals, that has good relations with current Defence Minister, wanted to field them in his division. 

 

13 hours ago, Alzoc said:

Instead of buying a massive amount of weapons from abroad like a gulf Petro-monarchie, wouldn't Poland be better served by rationalizing it's armed forces (one type of MBT, one type of MLRS, etc) and strengthening it's local defence industry?

Your arguments are valid. We would be better of by buying weapons that benefit our economy. But to do so, you first need to convince our MOD and Army that this is in their interest. And remember what i said at the beginning, they are populists, ask yourself, what makes the stronger impression on a mind of a voter, acquisition of brand new, amazing and super-duper American F-35/HIMARS - that you as a politician can pose with for a newspaper/TV reporter and maybe get a photo with American Secretary of Defence/American Ambassador, or acquisition of Polish-made MLRS and a photo of some polish-company chairman. 

[Żółć]

12 hours ago, Lord_James said:

It looks like they’re panic buying stuff, but I don’t see a point: on even a second thought, the Russian army is having a hard time pushing through what little the Ukraine had. Ukraine industry was in very poor shape before this invasion, and the quality of the few military vehicles and arms she did produce was questionable, and Poland is in a much better place than Ukraine. After the poor showing of the Russian army, they are probably not going to attempt any invasion against mildly competent forces in a while, which would give Poland enough time to develop her arms industry and get some of those projects into production. 

Yep, can't agree more. Ukraine is granting us time. I appreciate the latest contracts for our Air Defence, they are quite good, there is a place for participation from our industry and our AD is rather lacking right now. Taking into account that we are also developing some new and fancy radars for those programs, I'm content with what I'm seeing. But Abrams and now HIMARS are (for me) a completely different story. Well, HIMARS seems better, as it is intended to be coproduced with participation from some of our companies. We will also integrate our artillery management system into HIMARS which will help. Maybe, just maybe, we will also buy a licence to build some parts of the rocket for HIMARS, but there is no definitive answer here. 

[Beer]

On 5/27/2022 at 2:14 AM, Ramlaen said:

 

If Russia was just fighting what Ukraine had (or was just fighting Ukraine for that matter) the war would have been over in the now infamous 72 hour claims.

 

That's completely wrong, sorry. 

[LoooSeR]

On 5/27/2022 at 2:17 PM, Żółć said:

Yep, can't agree more. Ukraine is granting us time.

Umm.. for what?

[Żółć]

Ukraine is granting us time for the necessary modernization of our Armed Forces. And from what I can hear, we are just beginning our shopping spree. 

[LoooSeR]

3 minutes ago, Żółć said:

Ukraine is granting us time for the necessary modernization of our Armed Forces. And from what I can hear, we are just beginning our shopping spree. 

You had a lot of time for that and will have afterwards.

[Żółć]

Indeed we had time, but the question is, how had we used it, and how are we planning on spending the time that lies before us. 

[Ramlaen]

20 hours ago, Beer said:

 

That's completely wrong, sorry. 

 

It might be hyperbolic but it is the truth of the situation, Ukraine and Russia are not the only participants of the current war.

[Żółć]

Poland's Minister of National Defence is visiting South Korea, https://twitter.com/MON_GOV_PL/status/1530821815773306882?s=20&t=NVW6hFHKQHvbGiE1QrJ9jA and as far as rumours go, Poland will buy a few new systems from Korea. There is talk that we want to procure K21/AS21, K2, K2PL, T-50 and Sohn Wonyil submarines. I have to say that I would be devastated if we were to buy (or even worse - licence produce) new IFVs since we are at the end of trials for our domestically developed Borsuk (badger) IFV. And sadly, it is a possibility since one of our generals (the one that wanted and got Abrams) was lately openly speaking about him wanting to field new IFVs as soon as possible for his division and that he cannot wait for the production of Borsuk. It is just mindless. Although I will once again state that this is all rumours, we should see what was true and false in a few days.  

[Żółć]

Poland recently signed a contract for the sale of "Krab" self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine. The transaction is worth PLN 2.7bn - €589m. Ukraine is buying three squadrons of "Krab" self-propelled howitzers, which translates into approximately 54 howitzers, and all associated equipment. In addition, Ukraine already uses one such squadron - 18 howitzers, as well as command vehicles, ammunition vehicles, etc. In the final analysis, Ukraine will use 72 howitzers of Polish production, and there may be further orders from them in the future.

[Beer]

On 5/17/2022 at 10:46 AM, Żółć said:

Some time ago Huta Stalowa Wola (HSW) signed a cooperation agreement with Tatra. The subject of the contract is the design and delivery of a new 4x4 vehicle with complete technical documentation enabling the production of the vehicle in Poland. In my humble opinion the vehicle will use many elements from Patriot II and T 815-7 chassis, whilst being a new product and (from the legal perspective) a different one than Patriot II. 

 

I have read some discussions about the Husar vehicle and from what I could get out of it the HSW Husar is a licensed Patriot II including the cabin. 

 

What was interesting was a note that armoured cabins of Patriot II are currently being produced in Croatian Duro Daković (it also belongs to CSG) for undisclosed user, however I'm quite sure it's not related to the HSW production for Polish army. 

 

It was also stated that Patriot II base cab offers STANAG 3 level of resistance but can offer STANAG 4 with additional ceramic panels. 

[Żółć]

On 5/26/2022 at 11:21 PM, Alzoc said:

the K2PL being unlikely but still possibility

@Alzoci have something for you, https://twitter.com/PGZ_pl/status/1536324327259398152?s=20&t=7Gm_HRpXIy1Oyge3-p4I_g 

Yep, K2PL is coming in hot more tanks for Poland I guess. Let's have a moment of silence in memory of Polish logistical and maintenance units, I peaty those brave men and women. Now, in theory, Poland will be using 247x Leopard 2PL and 2A5, +300x M1A1SA/FEP, 250x M1A2 SEP v.3, 232x PT-91 and probably some leftover T-72M1R with around 500x K2/K2PL to come. Our T-72M1R are being currently sent to Ukraine, but will we send all of them is hard to tell, though it is probable. The future of PT-91 is also uncertain. 

[Alzoc]

2 minutes ago, Żółć said:

Let's have a moment of silence in memory of Polish logistical and maintenance units

Especially with a force of over 1500 MBT.

At the very least Poland will have very diverse suppliers which should help dampening the effects of political ties.

[Żółć]

AW149 is also to be procured by our armed forces. This information, as always, is a surprise as the MOD didn't inform publicly that they plan to procure those (or any other) helicopters. I'm starting to believe, that our minister of defence is trying to replicate a scene from gladiator - "are you not entertained?!" 
https://twitter.com/MON_GOV_PL/status/1536336920187392001?s=20&t=7Gm_HRpXIy1Oyge3-p4I_g

 

P.S. and some satellites to

[Żółć]

As if that wasn't enough for today, guess what, we want to form two more divisions. We are currently in the process of creating our fourth division, and MOD wants to have two more. Are you not entertained?!
https://twitter.com/MON_GOV_PL/status/1536337136001196032?s=20&t=7Gm_HRpXIy1Oyge3-p4I_g

Two additional divisions for the land forces, in simplified terms, more than 40,000x soldiers, 460x tanks, 900x IFV/APC, 380 artillery pieces, 8x Narew batteries, 2x Wisła batteries, several thousand other vehicles...