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Ukrainian Civil War Thread: All Quiet on the Sturgeon Front


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43 minutes ago, RobertV said:

So what's the state of things ?  It looks like  Ukraine about to fall.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/5b423554-6ce9-49fe-b74c-da41298b565f#post-a3716370-c77a-4e93-9973-f17a0114c8b5

 

Ukrainian air defence and air force are about toast.

Most airfields got hit by missiles in the opening strike, so Ukraine will have to mobilize their reservist by land (which is slow and dangerous with Russia controlling the airspace).

Russia advanced quickly east of the Dniepr suffering some losses but probably far less than the Ukrainian army. They also avoided some major city (probably not to get bogged down in urban combat).

 

Russia took Antonov airport just north of Kiev using airborn troops and Ukrainian army counter-attacked. Don't know who won or even if the fight is still ongoing.

Control of this airport would basically allow Russia to land troop directly at the gates of Kiev.

 

The question now is what are the Russian's objectives.

They have more or less already destroyed or trapped most cohesive Ukrainian formations and a lot of material.

 

Either Russia want to install a puppet government in Kiev and basically use Ukraine as a big no man's land or they want to annex everything east of the Dniepr and use the river as a natural frontier (or a combination of both). Both options would achieve Russia's stated objective of giving them breathing room from NATO aligned countries.

 

The problem with both choices is that while cohesive Ukrainian resistance will be mostly gone by then, they will have to deal guerilla warfare in any territory they occupy, especially if the western block keep sending ATGM, manpads and small arms into Ukrainian controlled territory (which could then be theoretically smuggled into Russian controlled area).

Outside of Crimea and separatist regions, most Ukrainians have a strong sense of nationality and won't be too keen on being absorbed back into Russian sphere of influence.

So the question is how some 300 000+ Russian soldier can control a territory that size populated by some 44 millions inhabitants (Puppet government or not) :/

 

It all boils down on where Russia want to stop and how they will handle the territories they occupy.

On top of that Russia basically validated all fears of eastern European country (invasion and absorption into USSR 2.0) and will push them even more toward NATO.

 

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