Ukrainian Civil War Thread: All Quiet on the Sturgeon Front

[RobertV]

23 minutes ago, Laser Shark said:

 

Not me, I'm afraid. Russia and its peoples deserve better.

 

 

Yeah, they should have had Medvedev. Much more decisive  and not afraid to play the western way.

 

 

Oh, wait you probably didn't mean that  ? did you ?

[Pardus]

55 minutes ago, Sturgeon said:

 

On this forum we are PROUD supporters of VLADIMIR PUTIN

 

Yeah I could tell, you're the cool kids

 

Supporters of Wagner Group too then I guess. Classy.

[Pardus]

2 hours ago, Alzoc said:

 

The first two photos are bad photoshop (look at the fuzzy edge around the flag), the third the celebration of an historical event.

Besides, even if the first two photos weren't doctored, it would more likely be some individual thing than some shadow conspiracy to bring back the USSR.

 

Nope

 

 

[Laser Shark]

4 minutes ago, RobertV said:

 

 

Yeah, they should have had Medvedev. Much more decisive  and not afraid to play the western way.

 

 

Oh, wait you probably didn't mean that  ? did you ?

 

Norwegian-Russian relations actually improved substantially under his presidency, but who knows how much of it was down to his own initiative or if Putin was still pulling the strings behind the curtain. In any case, we're probably straying from the topic at hand.

[Alzoc]

21 minutes ago, Pardus said:

 

Nope

 

 

 

I could always be mistaken, but a video can be doctored as well.

Watch the video both at minimal speed and at normal speed. You'll notice that it is oddly stilted and that the flag never look quite right in it's environment (especially noticeable at lower speed). Plus a video not even making the effort of using a real narrator and coming from an obscure news channel should have a low trust capital to begin with.

 

Social media combined with the fact that everybody have a smartphone nowadays allows to generate and share a lot of raw data content. It also make it much harder to sift through all of it and determine what is trustworthy and what isn't. As a rule of thumb always treat what is coming through twitter and the like as suspect a priori. Especially if the info is shocking or surprising.

And then, even if the info turned out to be true, it would only be a single event, not a pattern until proven otherwise.

[Pardus]

25 minutes ago, Alzoc said:

 

I could always be mistaken, but a video can be doctored as well.

Watch the video both at minimal speed and at normal speed. You'll notice that it is oddly stilted and that the flag never look quite right in it's environment (especially noticeable at lower speed). Plus a video not even making the effort of using a real narrator and coming from an obscure news channel should have a low trust capital to begin with.

 

Social media combined with the fact that everybody have a smartphone nowadays allows to generate and share a lot of raw data content. It also make it much harder to sift through all of it and determine what is trustworthy and what isn't. As a rule of thumb always treat what is coming through twitter and the like as suspect a priori. Especially if the info is shocking or surprising.

And then, even if the info turned out to be true, it would only be a single event, not a pattern until proven otherwise.

 

*sigh*

 

 

[Pardus]

 

[Sturgeon]

1 hour ago, Pardus said:

Yeah I could tell, you're the cool kids

 

1 hour ago, Pardus said:

Yeah I could tell, you're the cool kids

 

1 hour ago, Pardus said:

Yeah I could tell, you're the cool kids

 

1 hour ago, Pardus said:

Yeah I could tell, you're the cool kids

 

1 hour ago, Pardus said:

Yeah I could tell, you're the cool kids

 

[Pardus]

 

[LoooSeR]

24 minutes ago, Pardus said:

 

*sigh*

 

 

   Crew of one tank stuck a Soviet flag. Deffinetly rebuilding Soviet Union now, with 5 years plans, taking all oligarchs toys and giving it to worker class, nationalisations of all factories, including toilet paper ones.

 

48 minutes ago, Alzoc said:

 

I could always be mistaken, but a video can be doctored as well.

Spoiler

Watch the video both at minimal speed and at normal speed. You'll notice that it is oddly stilted and that the flag never look quite right in it's environment (especially noticeable at lower speed). Plus a video not even making the effort of using a real narrator and coming from an obscure news channel should have a low trust capital to begin with.

 

Social media combined with the fact that everybody have a smartphone nowadays allows to generate and share a lot of raw data content. It also make it much harder to sift through all of it and determine what is trustworthy and what isn't. As a rule of thumb always treat what is coming through twitter and the like as suspect a priori. Especially if the info is shocking or surprising.

And then, even if the info turned out to be true, it would only be a single event, not a pattern until proven otherwise.

 

This is real one.

 

You guys act like they hanged a black person and now drive around whith his corpse.

 

 

[LoooSeR]

Recent influx of people here turned this thread from something that looks like information being shared into a shit show. Great job, i guess. 

[Sturgeon]

1 hour ago, LoooSeR said:

Recent influx of people here turned this thread from something that looks like information being shared into a shit show. Great job, i guess. 

 

It's unfortunate. But, that's why we have a mod team.

[czornomaz]

Is it there a strictly Picture and Video thread about this conflict in the Forum? Something similar to the Syrian Conflict one.

 

Thanks

[Dead Ed]

5 hours ago, czornomaz said:

Is it there a strictly Picture and Video thread about this conflict in the Forum? Something similar to the Syrian Conflict one.

 

Thanks

Well I can give you this but it's all russian... and telegram also. It's just, you might not like what they are saying, okey. There many pictures and videos.
https://t.me/s/voenacher
https://t.me/s/istorijaoruzija

Here's t 90 destroyed in ukraine

[Żółć]

This war is peculiar https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1498249867054960641?s=20&t=W3cOSQQx6MfMog01dVuD0w

[Alzoc]

Summary of what foreign aid (both in military material and humanitarian goods) has been pledged to Ukraine :

 

Military aid :

 

• USA : 350 millions $
• EU : 450 millions €
• Germany : 1000 RPG/ATGM? ; 500 Stingers manpads ; 9 Howitzer ; 14 AFV ; 10 000 tonnes of fuel
• Sweden : Unspecified amount of anti-tank weapons
• France : Unspecified amount of "defense equipment" and fuel
• Belgium : 2000 machine-guns ; 3000 automatic rifles ; 200 anti-tank weapons ; 3800 tonnes of fuel
• Netherlands : Unspecified amount of helmet and precision rifles shipped Saturday and 200 Stingers as soon as possible
• Czech Republic : 30 000 pistols ; 7000 assault rifles ; 3000 machine-guns (article said fusils mitrailleurs, not sure of the correct terminology in English); several dozen of precision rifles ; 1 millions small calibre rounds for a total value of 7,6 millions € ; 4000 artillery rounds pledged earlier and yet to be delivered.
• Canada : Helmets and bulletproof vests
• Denmark : Let volunteers join the Ukrainian international brigades
• Romania : Fuel, Helmets, bulletproof vests, ammo and other equipment for a total of 3 millions € ; 11 military hospital on standby for Ukrainian wounded (civilians as well as military?)
• Portugal : Helmets ; Bulletproof vests ; night vision googles ; grenades ; small calibre ammunitions ; G3 rifles

There is also some talks of sending jets to the UAF (Old Bulgarian and Polish MiG-29 as well as Bulgarian Su-25?). Not sure how they would ship them (not to mention the poor state those planes are in) but it is more rumours at this point anyway.

 

Humanitarian aid :

 

• USA : 54 millions $
• France : 33 tonnes sent through Poland ; 30 tonnes to be shipped through Moldavia
• Israel : 100 tonnes pledged
• Italy : 110 millions € (directly transferred to the Ukrainian government)
• Spain : 20 tonnes (mainly medical equipment and defensive equipment?)
• Netherlands : 20 millions €
• Turkey : 3 long-vehicle worth of aid from AFAD sent to Moldavia ; Turkish Red crescent in cooperation with Romanian Red cross shipped some aid as well as volunteers
• Greece : Defensive equipments and aid to be sent

 

UN is counting 500 000 Ukrainian refugees as of now with over 280 000 in Poland

 

Source (12:43 timestamp): https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2022/02/28/guerre-en-ukraine-en-direct-les-bombardements-reprennent-a-kiev-et-kharkiv-le-rouble-chute-de-30_6115501_3210.html?#id-230805

[czornomaz]

9 hours ago, Dead Ed said:

Well I can give you this but it's all russian... and telegram also. It's just, you might not like what they are saying, okey. There many pictures and videos.
https://t.me/s/voenacher
https://t.me/s/istorijaoruzija

Here's t 90 destroyed in ukraine

 

Thanks Ed, as long as its not 99% one sided stuff i can put up with some propaganda BS

 

Cz.

[czornomaz]

1 hour ago, Alzoc said:

Summary of what foreign aid (both in military material and humanitarian goods) has been pledged to Ukraine :

 

Military aid :

 

• USA : 350 millions $
• EU : 450 millions €
• Germany : 1000 RPG/ATGM? ; 500 Stingers manpads ; 9 Howitzer ; 14 AFV ; 10 000 tonnes of fuel
• Sweden : Unspecified amount of anti-tank weapons
• France : Unspecified amount of "defense equipment" and fuel
• Belgium : 2000 machine-guns ; 3000 automatic rifles ; 200 anti-tank weapons ; 3800 tonnes of fuel
• Netherlands : Unspecified amount of helmet and precision rifles shipped Saturday and 200 Stingers as soon as possible
• Czech Republic : 30 000 pistols ; 7000 assault rifles ; 3000 machine-guns (article said fusils mitrailleurs, not sure of the correct terminology in English); several dozen of precision rifles ; 1 millions small calibre rounds for a total value of 7,6 millions € ; 4000 artillery rounds pledged earlier and yet to be delivered.
• Canada : Helmets and bulletproof vests
• Denmark : Let volunteers join the Ukrainian international brigades
• Romania : Fuel, Helmets, bulletproof vests, ammo and other equipment for a total of 3 millions € ; 11 military hospital on standby for Ukrainian wounded (civilians as well as military?)
• Portugal : Helmets ; Bulletproof vests ; night vision googles ; grenades ; small calibre ammunitions ; G3 rifles

There is also some talks of sending jets to the UAF (Old Bulgarian and Polish MiG-29 as well as Bulgarian Su-25?). Not sure how they would ship them (not to mention the poor state those planes are in) but it is more rumours at this point anyway.

 

 

 

It would be interesting to see how they are planning to receive all that cargo. AFAIK Gostomel is no-man land so far

[Alzoc]

I seriously doubt that they would try to send it by plane directly in Ukraine.

Most likely it will be either plane or trains up to the neighbouring country (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Moldavia) and then most likely put on Ukrainian trucks at the frontier.

 

The real question is how the Ukrainian will avoid those convoy being destroyed (at least the one containing military aid) from the air as soon as they cross the border.

I just hope they won't do something stupid and mix humanitarian and military aid into the same convoy.

Which is most likely forbidden under international laws, but since everybody seem to be taking liberties with them lately...

[czornomaz]

It caught my attention that most of the pics of russian lost equipment that i came across seems to be just abandoned. Ive heard rumors of russians troops having a fuel shortage, but i dont know if its because of supply lines being cut or brass incompetence. As for the latter, Before the operation ive heard of troops not having sleeping quarters and even not getting even MRE's having to buy goods out of their pocket.
 

If that was the case, i hope high rank officials get what they deserve

Cz.

[Alzoc]

According to Reuters, the EU will (officially) provide their satellite intelligence on Russian troops movement to Ukraine.

 

I assume it was already the case (at least punctually) but to say it out loud may up the tensions another notch...

[Cobras]

15 hours ago, Dead Ed said:

Well I can give you this but it's all russian... and telegram also. It's just, you might not like what they are saying, okey. There many pictures and videos.
https://t.me/s/voenacher
https://t.me/s/istorijaoruzija

Here's t 90 destroyed in ukraine

I dunno the barrel looks kinda weird in that photo, does anyone have any photo or video of russian T-90s in Ukraine? I have not seen 1 T-90 not even in the CCTV road cameras...

[LoooSeR]

   Wanted to do this post 2 days ago after digesting new events, but was too exhausted after workshifts to do effortposting, i was coming back to home during night time. My thoughts on this war, noise surrounding it, strategical implications and expectations, for those who care.

 

 

What i think.

   After 2017 it was obvious Ukraine will not do anything from Minsk agreements as Ukr politicians were publicly shitting on them and were doing nothing to make it real. DPR and LPR fate became obvious - they are not wanted in Ukraine. Putin's decision to recognize republics was constatations of situation. I expected thing to go slowly but deliberatly towards something i will describe later. But events went in very different way from what i thought would happen. Now, i'm not going to spit in the back of our soldiers executing orders, as Army should be this way, but politicians and other higher ups are free game im my eyes.

 

   Decision to start a full scale war in my opinion was stupidiest thing our political leadership have done in past 22 years. I'm not sure why or what triggered it, but looks like a plan was being worked on for long time, probably even before last year. Putin usually was carefull, but this is rackless decision.

   Our PR can scream about this operation being against nazis and nationalists, but the fact is this war is against Ukraine and everyone inside of it, as effects of war are going to touch nearly everyone who lives inside directly or indirectly.

 

   I don't have hard feelings about it, as i "burned down" during 2015, but this was wrong call. Not because war is bad, but because net result is not going to be what i would like to see.

 

 

   Good vs Evil

   Now, in medias narrative is that Good Democratical Ukraine is fighting Evil Russian dictatorship, in my view both states are dogshit.

 

   Ukraine is highly corrupted country that was run by oligarchs before coup in 2014 and now sort of run by oligarchs together by nationalists with piece of sovereignty outsorced to US foreigh policy makers, a country that effectively suppressed opposition in 2015-16 and where you have less rights than even in Russia, if you are not following "main course". One time per few years population needs to go to specific places where they instal another politicain as a leader who will became highly unpopular by the end of his term.

 

   Russia is highly corrupted country that was run by oligarchs before Putin and now sort of run by oligarchs together with Putin and his "clan", a country that sort of suppressed opposition in 2000s and where you have some rights, but there are workarounds, if you really want to. One time per few years population needs to go to specific places where we approve prolongation of power of our leader.

 

   Personally, i fail to see who is here an actual good guy. Both, in grand scheme of things, are kind of assholes. Maybe reason for people far away to see this conflict differently than war between Azerbaijan and Armenia is mix of agressor vs defender and Goliath vs David situation, and the fact that what they see on videos is a country and people more relatable than some Middle Eastern Arabs that are getting democracy delivered to their homes. But that is how i see it.

 

 

   Why this war is in such way it is (copy pasted from Discord): 

 

   I think we started this war with soft boxing gloves on, for some fucking reason. Maybe they expected less resistance, which may show how much attention they gave to situation on Donbass and how well they took into account 8 years of nationalistic propaganda and having armed conflict in 2.5 regions.

 

   Note absolutely no videos coming from our MoD, nothing about combat. Also note how for several days we used no artillery, very limited cruise missile strikes and no airstrikes (like in Syria with 100+ sorties per day from small base in Hmeimym). All this led to major units not being destroyed, equipment partially left in working condition. Internet was not turned off, mobile phones working. They did jack shit on this front. They did half measures and got half results.
 
   Thanks to that UAF was not destroyed. Convoy routes left undefended. No use of CAS, no proper AA coverage. Big units in bypassed cities left without serious blocking formations. They can orginise by using just mobiles phones. Thanks to ability to film and upload videos to the internet, net is now flooded with videos of Russian equipment destroyed and soldiers killed. Uplifting material for other side. All this instead of getting moral collapse of enemy faster and destruction and murder to minimun turned 180. Ukrainians are fighting back harder that what was anticipated is my expectation.

 

   Another boggus decision was using such small number of forces for operation. I saw claims of ~50k in initial phase. 100k is possibly going to be total number of forces. Ukraine is 40+ mln country. Not sure how they will hold it. Even with Rosgvardia there is not enough people to hold whole country.

 

   In the end results will be same on grand scale, but path to that result will be bloodier and longer. I guess thats why Putin fired that big star commander. But i guess they had plan B for bloodier route, which is why we now see MRLS used to bombard enemy.

 

   You can't "half-fight" the war, trying to look friendly on tv. What was supposed to be public flogging of Ukraine starts to be 1939 Soviet war with Finland, where USSR technically won, but Germans, looking at how it was won, thought Red Army was umm.. "incompetent" and decision to invade USSR was taken with taking into account poor results of that war. 

 

 

   Expectations, future

   After declaration of recognition of republics i thought we will start to help rebels in taking back 2 oblast', and this will be the end of hot-ish phase of conflict in Donbass region after quick strike against main forces of UAF in this region (which are most of their forces) and enforcing some sort of political comma in a conflict and moving to next phase.

 

   Reality went in different direction.

   I suspect this war will continue for a week (optimistically), 2-3 weeks if Russian command will not unfuck their plans, or turn into strange military stalment for a month or 2 when most of Ukraine is going to be technically captured, but vast territories and many towns/villages will not have any occupation forces to keep an order, so motivated people will have space to continue strategically unorginised conflict until we will pump necessary amount of internal troops to put it down enough for law enforcements to handle situation.  

 

   After that expect new government, neutral status and Russian troops leaving, with scars of stupidity of leadership. And after some time - nationalists will rise, again, maybe even at bigger scale. Reason - they were screaming about Russian invasion for 8 years and now it is a reality. Their voice was heard by people in Ukraine before, but and now it have big and firm foundation to stand on thanks to this war happening.

 

[LoooSeR]

Rebels in DPR are supported by Russian troops - Khrizantema ATGM carrier.

 

Berdyansk - people don't like Russian soldiers being in Ukraine.

 

[LoooSeR]

Ukrainian T-80BV near Gnutovo, which is near Mariupol