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Ukrainian Civil War Thread: All Quiet on the Sturgeon Front


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On 5/16/2022 at 4:47 PM, Beer said:

Ukraine released alleged leaked documents from Russian 1st guards tank army concerning unit losses as of 15th March. The documents seems to be legit. 

https://gur.gov.ua/content/do-seredyny-bereznia-zdalysia-v-polon-blyzko-sta-rosiiskykh-tankistiv.html

 

It shows rather low number of casualties in comparison with absolutely stunning vehicle losses. I remember the 1st GTA lost huge number of vehicles in its initial push just being stuck in mud or running out of fuel which is confirmed by the document. 

 

Anyway the total number of casualties after 3 weeks of fighting was 61 KIA, 209 WIA, 44 MIA, 96 POW. Altogether 410. 

 

The number of lost tanks per unit during the same period. Overal it's 125 tanks. 

1st tank regiment, 2nd motorrifle division: 45 T-72B3 obr.2016 (of 93!)

12th tank regiment, 4th guards tank division: 18 T-80U

13th tank regiment, 4th guards tank division: 47 T-80UE (of 83!)

423rd motorrifle regiment, 4th guards tank division: 6 T-80BV

27th motorized rifle brigade: 9 T-90A 

 

This status is from just days before another defeat in the battle of Trostianec which caused another large losses followed by retreat from the whole Sumy and Chernigiv regions. Also if we go by the number of T-80U/UE tanks from this time period showed on Oryx's blog we can see that the actual number of losses is even higher than listed by him.  

Thats why Ukraine is claiming 5x+ russian casualties, they think every russian vehicle lost = 100% crew dead. Having a 0,5 casualty per tank is pretty good by any standards, while every western mouthpiece says that the T-series tanks are death traps.

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12 hours ago, Alzoc said:

Regardless on the way this war will end, it seem that reconstituting Russian forces will be a tall order (especially without access to modern semi-conductors and other parts).

Russia doesnt rely on foreign semi-conductors for their military, they used to have France supply their T-90s with the Catherine thermal imagers, but from 2015 onwards its all domestically produced (product of early Western sanctions against Russia). You dont need a 7nm GA100 level of silicon in a Kalibr missile, 65nm* is enough for any modern military need.

*28nm is from TSMC, but they have the tech for it, but not for mass production, yet.

Edited by Cobras
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Russia can produce 65nm chips,  sure that not economically competitive use of silicon, for digital circuitry, but it is still an economically competitive for mixed (digital and analog combined) circuitry.  which is appropriate for general military use. 

 

Once chips need to communicate with the outside world at outside world voltages, the older silicon remains relevant.

https://electronics360.globalspec.com/article/17441/ti-to-construct-new-300-mm-chip-fab

new 45-65nm fabs are still being built.

 

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19 hours ago, Alzoc said:

Story on how Russia needed to dig T-62 out of storage seems to be confirmed.

 

 

It's a non story.    T-62's have been used in every goddamn conflict Russia been does far.

 

And here they will likely use T-62's same way they used them in Syria.

 

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18 hours ago, Cobras said:

Thats why Ukraine is claiming 5x+ russian casualties, they think every russian vehicle lost = 100% crew dead. Having a 0,5 casualty per tank is pretty good by any standards, while every western mouthpiece says that the T-series tanks are death traps.

 

Ehm, no. Very large part of these tanks lost by 1st GTA was captured undamaged. Using them to count the casualty rate is nonsense. 

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1 hour ago, Beer said:

 

Ehm, no. Very large part of these tanks lost by 1st GTA was captured undamaged. Using them to count the casualty rate is nonsense. 

I agree on that, casualties during first "phase" of this war happened under unusual conditions, as commanders were tasked with maximum speed and don't bother with vehicles that fall behind. That is not exactly combat losses. Also, part of them were recovered, although i don't know how many.

 

For comparison IIRC IDF Merkava 4s managed 1.2 killed per damaged or destroyed tank, or something along thise lines in 2006 Lebanon war. In Ukraine enemy have artilley, drones, even aviation (manned and umanned), which should not decrease amoint of casualties of crews per tank, but do opposite of that.

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4 hours ago, Lord_James said:

Did they capture the crews of those tanks? 

Which ones? If you mean abandoned - yes, but few.

 

Trench clearing using spicy rocks. Clear footage from a drone. And yes, it is kind of 18+

 

Looking forward for this documentary:

 

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On 5/26/2022 at 12:55 AM, Cobras said:

Russia doesnt rely on foreign semi-conductors for their military, they used to have France supply their T-90s with the Catherine thermal imagers, but from 2015 onwards its all domestically produced (product of early Western sanctions against Russia). You dont need a 7nm GA100 level of silicon in a Kalibr missile, 65nm* is enough for any modern military need.

*28nm is from TSMC, but they have the tech for it, but not for mass production, yet.

 

This article contains information about the amount of western-made chips in four particular Russian weapon systems. 

 

Ka-52 electro-optical turret - 22 US-made ones, 1 South Korean one (Texas Instruments, IDT, Altera USA, Burr-Brown, Analog Devices Inc., Micron Technology, Linear Technology and TE Connectivity)

 

Kh-101 ALCM - 35 US-made chips (Texas Instruments, Atmel Corp. Rochester Electronics, Cypress Semiconductor, Maxim Integrated, XILINX, Infineon Technologies, Intel, Onsemi, and Micron Technology)

 

Barnaul-T - 8 US-made chips (Intel, Micrel, Micron Technology and Atmel Corp)

 

Pantsir S1 - 5 US-made chips (AMD, Rochester Electronics, Texas Instruments, and Linear Technology)

 

We can safely bet that basically everything bar simple infantry weapons contains western electronics which can not be replaced in short term. 

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1 hour ago, Beer said:

 

This article contains information about the amount of western-made chips in four particular Russian weapon systems. 

 

Ka-52 electro-optical turret - 22 US-made ones, 1 South Korean one (Texas Instruments, IDT, Altera USA, Burr-Brown, Analog Devices Inc., Micron Technology, Linear Technology and TE Connectivity)

 

Kh-101 ALCM - 35 US-made chips (Texas Instruments, Atmel Corp. Rochester Electronics, Cypress Semiconductor, Maxim Integrated, XILINX, Infineon Technologies, Intel, Onsemi, and Micron Technology)

 

Barnaul-T - 8 US-made chips (Intel, Micrel, Micron Technology and Atmel Corp)

 

Pantsir S1 - 5 US-made chips (AMD, Rochester Electronics, Texas Instruments, and Linear Technology)

 

We can safely bet that basically everything bar simple infantry weapons contains western electronics which can not be replaced in short term. 

A god damn KamAZ truck on top of which Pantsir is mounted on have bunch of important parts being made in other countries. IIRC few notes about that is in car thread.

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4 minutes ago, LoooSeR said:

A god damn KamAZ truck on top of which Pantsir is mounted on have bunch of important parts being made in other countries. IIRC few notes about that is in car thread.

 

Yes, I worked for many years in automotive and I am well avare of the fact that basically all manufacturers all over the world use the very same components (there are many reasons for that). 

 

With civil aviation it's even much more stuff. The moment Putin decided to attack Ukraine he also signed a death sentence to the MS-21. The program cost billions but now the plane can be directly placed in Zhukovsky museum. 

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11 minutes ago, Beer said:

Yes, I worked for many years in automotive and I am well avare of the fact that basically all manufacturers all over the world use the very same components (there are many reasons for that).

 

The simplified Lada is a good example of that (though the effect of Covid on supply chains was a prime example as well).

No GPS/Glonnass, no ABS, no ESP, no airbags, Euro-2 norm engine (1997).

 

https://www.zr.ru/content/news/934780-lada-granta-posle-importozameshch/

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10 hours ago, Cobras said:

If you want to keep Russia away from all those electronics, you gotta sanction China too, and there is no way of that happening.

China also uses western chips. There were news recently of several Chinese consumer electronics companies silently leaving Russia for fear of being sanctioned as their products have some western eletronics inside.

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2 hours ago, RobertV said:

What exactly would require for the  Kh-101 cruise missile to have  35 micro chips  ? 

Guidance mostly (positioning, fins control, target recognition, etc).

 

Missiles aren't simple objects far from it. Cruise missiles are costly with a price ranging from anywhere between 1 to 3 million dollar per unit. Unlike simple unguided artillery shells or rockets where you just have to calculate the initial angle and impulse and let the thing fly, missiles have a complex and semi-autonomous trajectory needing onboard computing power.

 

There is a reason why everyone went away from big old analogue calculator : Size and weight. Same reason everybody try to reach the smallest transistor size possible on microchips. The smaller your calculator (be it an analogue system or a modern microchip) the more computing power you can cram for a given volume and weight. Older missiles had to be bigger partly for that reason. So yes you can have a cruise missiles using 65 nm microchips or perhaps even using an analogue system. But for a given size it will tend to be less accurate or have smaller payload and range (to compensate for the size of the computing unit) or any kind of combination of the three.

 

So of course having a harder access to modern microchips won't mean that Russia won't be able to manufacture complex weapon systems in the long run (short term they will have to redesign their entire industrial process). But the weapons and sensors (like a tank thermal camera for example) produced will be overall less performant than their western counterpart. And the higher the performance/tech level of a weapon system the more the difference will be felt.

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keep in mind, the f22 was built using 800nm chips, which were out of production by the time development of the f22 transitioned to production. and using nm as a proxy, 80nm chips would be 100 times more dense than 800nm chips.

 

Keeping proven chips in production would generally be a bigger issue for the military, than having the latest and greatest.

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The point is that even transition even to very similar alternative chips is very time consuming and very costly. Using some Chinese chips instead of US ones is much easier said than done. First the Chinese must produce something similar. After that they must be villing to sell that. They also must have production capacities for that. And last but not least there is huge programming, testing, validation etc. work to be done before the product is ready for production with new chips. It's an endeavour for years... and in the very last Russian must have money to pay that.   

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1 hour ago, LoooSeR said:

Was posted by Colli in our discord, reposting here

 

When even terrorists now have 3rd gen ATGM but your country don't 

 

Except there is no Javelin on the photo but APILAS and SMAW-D. Both of those have been used in Syria for years. The whole thing is most likely stagged for propaganda purpose. 

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7 minutes ago, Beer said:

 

Except there is no Javelin on the photo but APILAS and SMAW-D. Both of those have been used in Syria for years. The whole thing is most likely stagged for propaganda purpose. 

I can't open picture for better look, lol. I thought there were more photos

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8 hours ago, Beer said:

The point is that even transition even to very similar alternative chips is very time consuming and very costly. Using some Chinese chips instead of US ones is much easier said than done. First the Chinese must produce something similar. After that they must be villing to sell that. They also must have production capacities for that. And last but not least there is huge programming, testing, validation etc. work to be done before the product is ready for production with new chips. It's an endeavour for years... and in the very last Russian must have money to pay that.   

Yes and No,  they have had 7 years under sanctions already, so (for the military) there would already be some level of design-arounds and ability to create design-arounds.

For civilian applications, sure,  remove 1 part and the car is not fit for sale. But for non-western military, 1 part removed is like 1 part damaged,  bash on regardless.

 

image.png?id=29463391&width=980

 

 

 

https://www.cnx-software.com/2021/09/10/mikron-mik32-made-in-russia-32-bit-risc-v-mcu-stm32l0-mcu/

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