Ukrainian Civil War Thread: All Quiet on the Sturgeon Front

[Dead Ed]

Destruction of the ukrainian artillery.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/58160

[Alzoc]

Maps based retrospective of the invasion on le Monde  (click to zoom for some maps):

 

https://www-lemonde-fr.translate.goog/international/article/2022/05/24/la-carte-de-la-guerre-en-ukraine-jour-apres-jour_6118209_3212.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=fr&_x_tr_pto=wapp

 

Nothing new but a good recap after 4 months of conflict. The credence of the sources is of course debatable as some of it comes from Ukrainian or Russian opposition media.

Didn't posted everything of course, only the (mostly) recent or interesting ones.

 

Evolution of the beliggerent's positions week by week :

 

Spoiler

https://www-lemonde-fr.translate.goog/international/article/2022/05/24/la-carte-de-la-guerre-en-ukraine-jour-apres-jour_6118209_3212.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=fr&_x_tr_pto=wapp#00c-carte-au-jour-le-jour

 

Russian offensive in Donetsk Oblast :

 

Spoiler

Map published 03/07 :

 

Potential attack scenarii for Russian offensive in Donbass (published April 19th):

 

Spoiler

 

Number of Russian soldier killed by region of origin (if I understand correctly this was done using death notifications) :

 

Spoiler

Colors : From white to brown : increasing population density

Circled in brown : Regions with a  salary below the median of the country (471€)

 

Number of Russian soldier's death by date (left) as well as by age (right) :

 

Spoiler

 

 Number of "violent events" (mainly explosions and bombardments) since February 24th (as of May 23rd) :

 

Spoiler

Russian territorial gains in Donbass since the abandon of the push toward Kiev (29th of March) :

 

Spoiler

 

Red : Presence of Russian troops

Blue : Territory reclaimed by UAF

Yellow : Territory captured by Russian forces since the 29th of March

Black dash line : Cease-fire line in 2015

 

Main supply lines in Ukraine (May 23rd) :

 

Spoiler

Blue : Under Ukrainian control ; Red : Under Russian control

Dash line : Railway ;  Empty lines : Major roads

 

 War in Ukraine and agriculture :

 

Spoiler

Top left : Position of the "black earth" (most fertile lands) ; 36% of it under Russian control

Main map :

• Green : Corn
• Yellow : Wheat
• Gray : Sunflower
• Circled in yellow or yellow rectangle : Concentration of granary or biggest granary

 

 Situation in Transinistria (explosions in late April):

 

Spoiler

 

Kaliningrad enclave and NATO :

 

Spoiler

 

[Kristof]

On 7/25/2022 at 1:27 PM, Alzoc said:

Maps based retrospective of the invasion on le Monde  (click to zoom for some maps):

 

https://www-lemonde-fr.translate.goog/international/article/2022/05/24/la-carte-de-la-guerre-en-ukraine-jour-apres-jour_6118209_3212.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=fr&_x_tr_pto=wapp

 

Nothing new but a good recap after 4 months of conflict. The credence of the sources is of course debatable as some of it comes from Ukrainian or Russian opposition media.

Didn't posted everything of course, only the (mostly) recent or interesting ones.

For neutral maps I would recommend the Wikipedia article on the timeline of the invasion, and it also comes with an animated map that is updated 3-5 times a month. Really shows that Russia is fighting a war of attrition.

[LoooSeR]

I think this shows pretty well how disjointed from reality leadership of the army/politicians were in the start of this war.

 

Quote

Unknown feat: the story of the Russian detachment on the "Tiger", which took up all-round defense and died in the 134th school of Kharkov on February 27.

 

   Today, everyone knows in detail the feat of the "Gostomel" paratroopers, who occupied and held an important bridgehead until the main forces approached. Unfortunately, the feat of the Pskov special forces detachment, which fought an unequal battle in the very center of Kharkov for more than ten hours and did not got reinforcements, is much less known.

 

   The few photographic and video evidence that have come down to us from that side (first of all, the report of the Ukrainian propagandist Butusov) allow us to restore the approximate chronology and course of events. So, on the morning of February 27, a group of our reconnaissance officers (the 2nd detachment of special forces from Pskov) were abandoned in Kharkov, they received instruction that people “are waiting for you there” and traveled around the city for some time, trying to find out where they were expected and what they were doing. Then the column split up: a part on two Kamaz trucks and three "tigers" was soon defeated in the Dendropark area, and the other, on four "tigers", reached the 134th school on Shevchenko Street, where two cars were hit and our scouts took refuge in the building of a school.

 

   Shooting back, they set fire to a passing Ukrainian BTR-4 "Bucephal". Various detachments of local militants (the 92nd brigade, police special forces "Kord", "Omega" and Territorial defense) and other military equipment, including a tank, which began to shoot at soldier who had settled there, gradually attracted to the school. The Russians refused to surrender and fought an unequal battle for about ten hours (!), Before dark. The guys withstood three assaults. Finally, late in the evening, a tank drove up for the second time, which now began to shoot, the last survivors jumped out of the windows of the 2-3rd floor and fired back behind the school in the schoolyard.

 

   As a result, up to 20 of our soldiers died in a completely burned-out school (on the available videos, you can count five 200s). Two were taken prisoner (see screenshots from the video), their fate is not known.

 

   The testimony of one of the prisoners, squad leader Sergeant Maxim Veritikhin*, is on video (“We were told that it would be fine, like in the Crimea ... we were told that the city was cordoned off, blocked, our people were there, we just need to come and reinforce everything . Civilians were told not to touch, but on the military - to open only return fire").

   * Judging by the end of the video, Veritikhin was NOT one of the prisoners taken at school, his car was hit in another place in Kharkov on the same day (probably, he was in part of the column that was broken in the Dendropark area - two more were taken prisoner there ours, in total, 4 prisoners were declared by the Ukrainians that day).

 

Spoiler

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Domus Acipenseris]

Two videos about the sinking of the cruiser Moskva:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uHTG6NB8b3o

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uHTG6NB8b3o

 

The first video says that the defensive systems could not engage the missiles due to minimum altitude constraints.  The vid also says that the defensive systems were down.  Very interesting info about the damage done by the missiles.

 

The 2nd video says that the systems were just left off.

[barbaria]

On 8/11/2022 at 2:21 PM, LoooSeR said:

start of this war.

Are they still disjointed from reality?

[mr.T]

5 hours ago, barbaria said:

Are they still disjointed from reality?

 

Dabling in alternate reality seems to be the feature of the Ukrainian side these days with politicians medding in the military planing.

 

[Alzoc]

Ukraine apparently bought an unspecified number of decommissioned French TR F1 155 mm L39 towed guns :

 

http://www.opex360.com/2022/09/09/lukraine-a-achete-danciens-canons-tractes-trf1-de-155-mm-autrefois-utilises-par-larmee-de-terre/

 

105 were purchased by French forces and as 2016 only 12 were left in service, they were replaced by the Caesar.

The system is rather old (1979) and as a towed gun is quite vulnerable, though it has a semi automatic loading system (similar to the one used by the Caesar) and can move under it's own power at a speed of up to 8 km/h

• Range : 24 km (30 km with extended range round)
• Setup time : 5 min
• RoF : up to 3 round in 15 s / 6 rounds/min sustained
• Barrel life : 3000 equivalent full charge

Spoiler

 

 

Nothing spectacular performance wise but that's always more tubes available.

[LoooSeR]

Iranian drone are yet to appear in combat in Ukraine, but US already sanctioned Iranian companies for them

 

Spoiler

 

[Miroslav]

It's one heck of a civil war that requires a neighbouring country to mobilize 300 000 troops after already committing 100 000- 200 000 people to the conflict.

[RobertV]

A country the size of western Europe and 40 million population.  funded and supplied by the west.   I'm not sure what the fuck the Russian leadership was thinking all this time.   Wasted money, equipment and apparently 5937 Russian soldiers lives and not to mention 3500 missiles on target of not much value.

 

 

 

Just to now to start mobilize and take this shit finally seriously.

 

Honestly, I have more and more sympathy for Stalin.

[Alzoc]

@LoooSeRFirst, I hope you are alright and not concerned by the draft.

 

How is the public opinion in Russia now that (partial) mobilization has been announced?

It was one thing Putin seemed to be very reluctant to do for a fear of a shift in public opinion.

[barbaria]

12 hours ago, Miroslav said:

civil war

You mean special military operation?

 

9 hours ago, RobertV said:

apparently 5937 Russian soldiers lives

Add a zero that

 

3 hours ago, Alzoc said:

@LoooSeRFirst, I hope you are alright and not concerned by the draft.

 

Privet Andrey!

 

3 hours ago, Alzoc said:

How is the public opinion in Russia now that (partial) mobilization has been announced?

It was one thing Putin seemed to be very reluctant to do for a fear of a shift in public opinion.

Those who can afford it are fleeing the country right now.

[LoooSeR]

5 hours ago, Alzoc said:

@LoooSeRFirst, I hope you are alright and not concerned by the draft.

Unlikely, i'm not even in military reserve because of health issues. 

 

5 hours ago, Alzoc said:

How is the public opinion in Russia now that (partial) mobilization has been announced?

Different. Most of mobilisation efforts will be experienced by people already in the army, volunteers and conscripts, they are already in the pipeline in the first place. Some people are not happy with that, i don't think there is a nation consensus on that event. 

 

5 hours ago, Alzoc said:

It was one thing Putin seemed to be very reluctant to do for a fear of a shift in public opinion.

This operation is quite stupid, it is run rather badly. Mobilisation could have been more important in first few months. Not sure if it is going to help all that much while systemic problems of MoD are still present and are quite bad. You just giving more cannon meat in hands of incompetent people.

 

The recently announced referendum to join Russia for all captured territories and population is actually more important in context of this war. This will mean Russian borders will be officially moved right to frontlines, which means that MoD can use conscripts in Ukraine without publicly shitting on a law about not using conscripts outside of our borders.

[RobertV]

12 hours ago, barbaria said:

 

 

Add a zero that

 

 

 

 

Why exactly ?  There is a zero chance that so many Russians died.  That would pretty much mean  the 150000 force Russian sent is pretty much  whipped out.   Which clearly isn't the case.

 

 

Ukrainians on the other hand have been sending reserves after reserves.  

[watch_your_fire]

23 hours ago, barbaria said:

Add a zero that

In this context "Russian" refers to "Russian servicemen".

 

If you add Wagner and DNR+LPR troops then yeah definitely over 30k dead on the Russian side, that's a given.

Honestly I expect the fighting to slow down a lot during the winter, and the 300k new soldiers will only show up next spring/summer. It takes a lot of time to train them and get equipment ready after all.

[RobertV]

The mobilized guys won't go. (Bar volunteers)  The ones that are doing their service will as far as I understood.

[N-L-M]

Basic training for rear area duties shouldn't be more than a month. 

For infantry duties tack on another two at a minimum. 

[Jägerlein]

Seem's to be debatable what the minimum is.

[W. Murderface]

On 9/28/2022 at 6:59 PM, Jägerlein said:

Seem's to be debatable what the minimum is.

The poor guy looks like he's about to cry.

[Toxn]

This one might have been LoooSeR'd already:

 

It's strange - I'm a military gear nut in many ways, but seeing the gear in action is always chilling for me. It's way too easy to imagine the panic of those tank crewmen as they frantically looked this way and that through the tiny fields of view afforded by their optics. And then they died horribly to a vehicle that they probably only caught sight the moment before it fired at them.

[Alzoc]

Between 6 to 12 Ceasar 8x8 will be sent to Ukraine.

 

https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2022/10/01/la-france-prepare-la-livraison-de-nouveaux-canons-caesar-a-l-ukraine_6143991_3210.html

 

Spoiler

 

 

Those vehicles were initially part of the Danish order, but according to the article they were still in the technical validation phase and there were (unspecified) problems regarding compliance to Danish requirement so the Danes were not too fussed to see them donated to Ukraine.

 

Compared to the 6x6 version, the 8x8 has a more powefull engine (410 hp) to compensate for the increased weight (from 18t to 32t), has an armored cabin complying with lvl 3 STANAG and lvl 2 IED, carries twice the number of rounds (36 vs 18) and use an improved loading system.

 

Will be interesting to see if the 8x8 will handle the upcoming mud better than the 6x6.

[Miroslav]

On 9/30/2022 at 12:33 PM, Toxn said:

This one might have been LoooSeR'd already:

 

It's strange - I'm a military gear nut in many ways, but seeing the gear in action is always chilling for me. It's way too easy to imagine the panic of those tank crewmen as they frantically looked this way and that through the tiny fields of view afforded by their optics. And then they died horribly to a vehicle that they probably only caught sight the moment before it fired at them.

 

That is not strange. This is not a soccer game.

[Jägerlein]

On 9/21/2022 at 2:55 PM, RobertV said:

 apparently 5937 Russian soldiers lives and not to mention 3500 missiles on target of not much value.

 

Honestly, I have more and more sympathy for Stalin.

Since you still seem to belive that your russian comrades over there in Ukraine are fighting like a bunch of 40k Spacemarines and only ~6000 have fallen against ukrainian human waves:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xt7a3i/russians_who_tried_to_flee_lyman_today_spoiler_it/   [intentionally only link without preview] 
Make ~6020 out of it. I assume it's futile to try to convince you that this is not an isolated case and you will stay with your 4 digits number.

 

[RobertV]

2 hours ago, Jägerlein said:

Since you still seem to belive that your russian comrades over there in Ukraine are fighting like a bunch of 40k Spacemarines and only ~6000 have fallen against ukrainian human waves:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xt7a3i/russians_who_tried_to_flee_lyman_today_spoiler_it/   [intentionally only link without preview] 
Make ~6020 out of it. I assume it's futile to try to convince you that this is not an isolated case and you will stay with your 4 digits number.

 

 

 

And yet it still doesn't indicate that the causalities are that severe as ridicules Ukrainian propaganda has claimed time after time.   Which by this point would indicate they whipped out 3 times the amount of troops Russia sent.    But hey logic isn't you're strongest point  that is quite obvious.