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Ukrainian Civil War Thread: All Quiet on the Sturgeon Front


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Lostarmour.info released KIA+MIA figures for DNR fighters as of 9th June. The numbers are taken from the ombudsman office of DNR. The numbers don't show MIA+POW so the actual losses are even reasonably higher. According to that the 2 million DNR lost 2061 KIA + 8509 WIA between the start of the war and 9th June. That counts for about 50% of the DNR 1st Army Corps strength. The graphs also show that during the period of high intensity fighting in Mariupol the DNR forces were loosing around 1000 KIA+WIA per week. The casualty numbers in the last few weeks decreased a lot most likely due to the fact that DNR frontline units are not directly involved in the main battles ongoing right now (possibly also due to exhaustion). 

https://t.me/lostarmour/456

https://ombudsman-dnr.ru/obzor-soczialno-gumanitarnoj-situaczii-slozhivshejsya-na-territorii-doneczkoj-narodnoj-respubliki-vsledstvie-voennyh-dejstvij-v-period-s-04-po-10-iyunya-2022-g/

 

Same graphs linkeable here from twitter. 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

An interesting thing is the lack of evidence of any distinctive western-supplied weapons being destroyed by the Russians. AFAIK there are only about 3 confirmed destroyed M777 howitzers out of 110 or so, one M109A3 damaged/destroyed and one Bushmaster MRAP destroyed. No Krab, no Caesar, no PzH 2000, no Dana, no RM-70 (plus Vampire), no FH-77, no M113 and no HIMARS, , nothing destroyed or captured on any photos/videos. Some of these are confirmed to be used in combat, others are most likely kept in newly created brigades, i.e. not yet used in combat. From heavy weapons supplied by us we know only about one or two confirmed losses of "our" T-72M1 (the second one is ex-Bulgarian but it was possibly supplied from Czechia) and one Pbv-501 destroyed in Kherson area. These were delivered already in April and have been there for three months (just like Dana and RM-70). Also our Mi-24V have been in Ukraine for two months but even a first photo of them appeared only last week.  

 

It's quite likely that something more was destroyed but definitely not in any large numbers because those would result in some footage. 

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51 minutes ago, Beer said:

An interesting thing is the lack of evidence of any distinctive western-supplied weapons being destroyed by the Russians. AFAIK there are only about 3 confirmed destroyed M777 howitzers out of 110 or so, one M109A3 damaged/destroyed and one Bushmaster MRAP destroyed. No Krab, no Caesar, no PzH 2000, no Dana, no RM-70 (plus Vampire), no FH-77, no M113 and no HIMARS, , nothing destroyed or captured on any photos/videos. Some of these are confirmed to be used in combat, others are most likely kept in newly created brigades, i.e. not yet used in combat. From heavy weapons supplied by us we know only about one or two confirmed losses of "our" T-72M1 (the second one is ex-Bulgarian but it was possibly supplied from Czechia) and one Pbv-501 destroyed in Kherson area. These were delivered already in April and have been there for three months (just like Dana and RM-70). Also our Mi-24V have been in Ukraine for two months but even a first photo of them appeared only last week.  

 

It's quite likely that something more was destroyed but definitely not in any large numbers because those would result in some footage. 

 

First and fore most reason is the sheer amount of propaganda covering Ukraine conflict , finding stuff on ukraine that not pro Ukrainian is near impossible outside Telegram.

 

 

You can't expect everything to be on tape but Ukrainians themselves say that most of M777 are already wrecked. Remember when these were first delivered they were touted to be absolute game changers , same as they are touting HIMARS now . as if Ukraine didin have similary capable Uragan launcher in the past .And honestly most of the heavy gear aside from M777 is supplied in extremely small numbers

 

And when the gear gets wrecked in wearehouses you can hardly expect a video clearly showing it

https://i.ibb.co/3RRPG8F/photo-2022-07-13-18-42-14.jpg

 

 

Is quite interesting propaganda reporting has a considerable lag , for example city already taken and then for 3 days they publish a report on street fightign and a week later on organised retreat. 

One thing that keeps poping up and is so far undisputed is Ukrainans loosing 1000 soldiers per day (200KIA +800WIA ) for at least past month. 7500+ MIA in Donbass since May and cca 9000 POW so far  , does it look like they are wining anything.

 

In any case if you want some unbiased insight from Ukraine, Austrian military academy is the go to on You tube , they also explain the issue with numbers .

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, mr.T said:

 

 

You can't expect everything to be on tape but Ukrainians themselves say that most of M777 are already wrecked.

No, they don't. I'm pretty sure if most of 110 is destroyed, i.e. at least 56, more than 3 would be confirmed also from Russian side. 

 

3 hours ago, mr.T said:

And when the gear gets wrecked in wearehouses you can hardly expect a video clearly showing it

https://i.ibb.co/3RRPG8F/photo-2022-07-13-18-42-14.jpg

That's one of the three known. It's pretty clear that Russia don't miss a chance to show every single western piece of equipment they manage to get their hand on, yet there is nearly none. 

 

3 hours ago, mr.T said:

 

 

 

Sir, you need glasses. That's not Dana. That thing doesn't even resemble Dana proportions (which is way longer, has turret placed in the middle, has small split windows etc.). Most likely it's an excavator on Kamaz chassis or another truck. 

 

 

Yes, there is a lot of propaganda, especially that bullshit about nazi everywhere, especially in the flattened blocks of flats, malls and theaters destroyed by Russians or people who somehow murdered or raped themselves. It's just sick. Period. 

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12 hours ago, Beer said:

An interesting thing is the lack of evidence of any distinctive western-supplied weapons being destroyed by the Russians. AFAIK there are only about 3 confirmed destroyed M777 howitzers out of 110 or so, one M109A3 damaged/destroyed and one Bushmaster MRAP destroyed. No Krab, no Caesar, no PzH 2000, no Dana, no RM-70 (plus Vampire), no FH-77, no M113 and no HIMARS, , nothing destroyed or captured on any photos/videos. Some of these are confirmed to be used in combat, others are most likely kept in newly created brigades, i.e. not yet used in combat. From heavy weapons supplied by us we know only about one or two confirmed losses of "our" T-72M1 (the second one is ex-Bulgarian but it was possibly supplied from Czechia) and one Pbv-501 destroyed in Kherson area. These were delivered already in April and have been there for three months (just like Dana and RM-70). Also our Mi-24V have been in Ukraine for two months but even a first photo of them appeared only last week.  

 

It's quite likely that something more was destroyed but definitely not in any large numbers because those would result in some footage. 

I've seen some here and there on telegram. Russia claimed HIMARS knocked out but I think that was a lie. But definitely some M777s and the like being destroyed on camera.

 

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14 hours ago, watch_your_fire said:

I've seen some here and there on telegram. Russia claimed HIMARS knocked out but I think that was a lie. But definitely some M777s and the like being destroyed on camera.

 

 

I didn't claim none were destroyed. I just refused the "majority of 110 was destroyed" showing three as a proof. 

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I saw footage of more than 3 M777 getting destroyed. There was a video with M103 as well. One of French politicians IIRC posted about us capturing one of Ceasers, i think this one is BS as no footage or photos leaked.

 

On 7/14/2022 at 7:39 PM, Beer said:

Yes, there is a lot of propaganda, especially that bullshit about nazi everywhere, especially in the flattened blocks of flats, malls and theaters destroyed by Russians or people who somehow murdered or raped themselves. It's just sick. Period. 

A yes, only we have big guns and dicks in this war.

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One subject of less PR-filled emotions and war crimes blames.

 

Quote

   Interesting material from a BBC foreign agent was sent in a personal message (the link is sewn into the post).

   Britons are collecting data on Russian cemeteries about our losses. /.../ In general, they had 4515 dead on July 8th. Of these, 773 are officers of all ranks, including 205 officers from major to general. To be honest... I thought ours had lost more. It turns out that in 4.5 months of the SMO, our troops lost about as many killed as the Armenians lost in 44 days of hostilities in Karabakh - and the Azerbaijanis, according to indirect data, lost from 4,500 to 7,000 killed.

   The leaders in terms of motorized rifle losses are 890 people. It is understandable, for the most massive branch of the military. In second place is the Airborne Forces - 888 people. But this is a reason for reforms, because the paratroopers turned out to be objectively weak for fighting as line infantry /.../ In third place are "others" - 864 people. Tankers lost 275 people, volunteers 267, marines 247 people. And there is a large category of 1124 people for whom there is no data, but they are military personnel.

   The Britons claim that they managed to establish the death of 162 employees of the National Guard, 111 soldiers of the GRU special forces and 3 officers of the FSB special forces.

 

    For comparison, Arestovich stated that Ukraine had lost 10,000 people killed and 30,000+ wounded as of June 20. According to the TG-channel "Major and General", which relies on the number of burials in Ukrainian cemeteries, the loss of those killed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the NGU, the territorial defense and the nazis is at least 15,000 killed.

   So far our side lost 4.5k dead according to BBC data, i was expecting around 6k at this point. Note that 4.5k is Russian army+VDV+Rosgvardia+FSB+volunteers, but without DPR and LPR losses.

 

So here is casualties of DPR forces, up to 07.07

unknown.png

2.3k killed, 9.7k wounded. 16,8 killed and 69,5 wounded per day on average.
KIA/WIA ration is 2/10. Note that 01.07-07.07 have this ratio at 4/10.

 

4.5-5k+2.3-2.5 gives 6.8-7.5k killed combined. LPR troops AFAIK saw less combat compared to DPR troops in this war, they should have somewhat lower casualties, but i have no figures. In my understanding of situation, combined losses of our forces and allies should be around 8-9k. 

 

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17 hours ago, Beer said:

 

I didn't claim none were destroyed. I just refused the "majority of 110 was destroyed" showing three as a proof. 

You do realize how artillery shrapnel works , typical 155 or 152mm grenade fragment can pierce an armored SPG armor at 50+ meters , stanag 4569 level 1 armoring which is kinda common on SPG is actually rated to protect against 20g artillery fragment only at 100m imagine unprotected artillery with lightweight titanium frame .

 

When it comes to STANAG 4569 protection levels only once you reach IV vehicle is protected from a HE 155mm shell at 30m , and level V at 25m from the impact of HE shell.

No SPG  supplied to ukraine has level 4 protection and level 5 is basically frontal armor of a modern IFV again way beyond protection levels of any SPG

Original Bradley survivability requirement was 1 x 152 mm airburst at 18 meter and zero crew compartment penetration. Bradley has a least level V all roudn and level 5 frontal armor.

 

Folks expect destroyed artillery means its blows up in flames , which is not really the case ,typical shrapnel does enough damage with close enough misses to render things inoperable or at least unsafe (note that barrel steel is very ductile but quite soft to handle the pressure , in comparison to armor stell shrapnel goes trough barrel steel like knife trough butter ) that is why Artillery shells make such great IED base very few armored vehicles can survive being hit by shapnel from one at any practical distance. 

 

152mm shell fragments

http://fotki29.ru/war_in_the_donbass/photo/ukraine_1417474109_.jpg

 

 

''The commander of the logistics service of the ground forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Brigadier General Volodymyr Karpenko, specifically mentioned M777 Howitzers. 

Karpenko addressed his grievance to the United States regarding the M777 howitzers they are supplying to Ukraine. As per Karpenko, the situation is extremely difficult, as these howitzers “constantly break down and require repair.” 

 

In an interview with National Defense on June 15, Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Denys Sharapov said after each “artillery duel”, on average, two of the six M777 howitzers have to be repaired because the components of these guns are damaged by Russian shells.''

 

In a strike like this naive folk think that because there are not 3 fireballs  howitzers survived , in reality that is highly unlikely  even if some can be moved or even driven away likely hood of any of them remaining operational is very small. And then you have an Issue where you get spare parts and things repaired which is particularly an issue with foreign gear supplied in low numbers 

 

 

An example on how artilery fire damages armor....

 

In 1988 US Artillery command performed a series of tests to determine the effect of non-guided conventional HE shells, fired indirectly on targets, with the aim of modelling a potential engagement with soviet artillery. The ammunition used were 155mm HE shells.

First test was performed by a battery of 155mm M109 howitzers utilizing soviet fire control protocols and ammunition consumption norms of the time. Targets were mannequins, army trucks, M113 APCs, M577 command vehicles and M48 tanks. Three fire missions were executed on targets, 56 HE shells each with contact and non-contact detonators (50/50). Effect on the infantry and the trucks was very close to prior US calculations. However, effect on the armored vehicles far surpassed expected levels, reaching as high as 67% of vehicles disabled.

Although zero direct hits were achieved, fragments of the 155mm shells delivered serious damage to the armored vehicles - they penetrated armor, destroyed tracks, optical and targeting equipment and even caused fire in one of the APCs. This test has definitely confirmed the efficiency of indirect fire against armored vehicles.

main-qimg-24328f82b0fe3115263403093aa8bafc-lq

This command vehicle was successfully penetrated by HE shells fragments.

main-qimg-96b1c7e9357f5b54cdf84ab26c217213.webp

This APC has suffered damage of the gun and external equipment.

Next stage of tests lasted for seven months and was meant to research the effects of direct hits of 155mm shells on the armored vehicles. The outcome was that maximum effect was achieved by air detonation shells with non-contact detonators. The shrapnel successfully damaged gun barrels, external equipment, sights, engine radiators and chassis elements.

The third stage of testing was the most spectacular - a full stationary fortified position was created with trenches and all. A full motorised platoon was deployed on the fortified position (with mannequins instead of men, of course). APCs, tanks, weapons and mannequins were all properly positioned and entrenched.

To achieve 50% targets disabled the 24-gun 155mm artillery battery used 2600 HE shells. Even when properly dug in, 50% of APCs and tanks were rendered inoperable (mission kill). It was also noted that the testing did not take into the account such additional adverse effects as smoke, dust, scopes alignment displacement, physiological and psychological effect of HE blasts of people.

 

General outcome of the testing was formulated as follows:

  1. A direct hit from a 152/155mm HE shell from above is guaranteed to achieve a mission kill on any armored vehicle.
  2. A hit within 30m from the vehicle is potentially able to damage the vehicle sufficiently to achieve a mission kill.
  3. APCs are exceptionally vulnerable to indirect artillery fire and high irrecoverable losses are to be expected in case of incoming 152/155mm artillery fire both of vehicles and of carried personnel.
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5 hours ago, LoooSeR said:

So far our side lost 4.5k dead according to BBC data, i was expecting around 6k at this point. Note that 4.5k is Russian army+VDV+Rosgvardia+FSB+volunteers, but without DPR and LPR losses.

This is very interesting but I have to point out that not all bodies are recovered and buried, so, take 4.5k as the minimum number of dead, not the maximum.

 

On an unrelated note, does anyone know what's going on with Russia buying those Iranian drones? Any official statement from either party?

https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-drones-russia-ukraine-war/31943572.html

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7 hours ago, watch_your_fire said:

This is very interesting but I have to point out that not all bodies are recovered and buried, so, take 4.5k as the minimum number of dead, not the maximum.

 

On an unrelated note, does anyone know what's going on with Russia buying those Iranian drones? Any official statement from either party?

https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-drones-russia-ukraine-war/31943572.html

No official datas from our side, Iran claimed that they didn't sold them to us.

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10 hours ago, watch_your_fire said:

This is very interesting but I have to point out that not all bodies are recovered and buried, so, take 4.5k as the minimum number of dead, not the maximum.

 

On an unrelated note, does anyone know what's going on with Russia buying those Iranian drones? Any official statement from either party?

https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-drones-russia-ukraine-war/31943572.html

You have to take these reports with grain of salt , as long as Iran is somewhat unsanctioned by EU its not going to jeopardise that .

While i am certain there is some shearing of experience ,and tactical implementation with the Iranians i would be sceptical of any large scale drone purchase .

 

This is most likely story launched to provide some cover for Biden when he is on his knees s*cking MBS beging for more oil.

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On 7/15/2022 at 8:09 PM, mr.T said:

You do realize how artillery shrapnel works , typical 155 or 152mm grenade fragment can pierce an armored SPG armor at 50+ meters , stanag 4569 level 1 armoring which is kinda common on SPG is actually rated to protect against 20g artillery fragment only at 100m imagine unprotected artillery with lightweight titanium frame .

 

When it comes to STANAG 4569 protection levels only once you reach IV vehicle is protected from a HE 155mm shell at 30m , and level V at 25m from the impact of HE shell.

No SPG  supplied to ukraine has level 4 protection and level 5 is basically frontal armor of a modern IFV again way beyond protection levels of any SPG

Original Bradley survivability requirement was 1 x 152 mm airburst at 18 meter and zero crew compartment penetration. Bradley has a least level V all roudn and level 5 frontal armor.

 

Folks expect destroyed artillery means its blows up in flames , which is not really the case ,typical shrapnel does enough damage with close enough misses to render things inoperable or at least unsafe (note that barrel steel is very ductile but quite soft to handle the pressure , in comparison to armor stell shrapnel goes trough barrel steel like knife trough butter ) that is why Artillery shells make such great IED base very few armored vehicles can survive being hit by shapnel from one at any practical distance. 

 

152mm shell fragments

http://fotki29.ru/war_in_the_donbass/photo/ukraine_1417474109_.jpg

 

 

''The commander of the logistics service of the ground forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Brigadier General Volodymyr Karpenko, specifically mentioned M777 Howitzers. 

Karpenko addressed his grievance to the United States regarding the M777 howitzers they are supplying to Ukraine. As per Karpenko, the situation is extremely difficult, as these howitzers “constantly break down and require repair.” 

 

In an interview with National Defense on June 15, Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Denys Sharapov said after each “artillery duel”, on average, two of the six M777 howitzers have to be repaired because the components of these guns are damaged by Russian shells.''

 

In a strike like this naive folk think that because there are not 3 fireballs  howitzers survived , in reality that is highly unlikely  even if some can be moved or even driven away likely hood of any of them remaining operational is very small. And then you have an Issue where you get spare parts and things repaired which is particularly an issue with foreign gear supplied in low numbers 

 

 

An example on how artilery fire damages armor....

 

In 1988 US Artillery command performed a series of tests to determine the effect of non-guided conventional HE shells, fired indirectly on targets, with the aim of modelling a potential engagement with soviet artillery. The ammunition used were 155mm HE shells.

First test was performed by a battery of 155mm M109 howitzers utilizing soviet fire control protocols and ammunition consumption norms of the time. Targets were mannequins, army trucks, M113 APCs, M577 command vehicles and M48 tanks. Three fire missions were executed on targets, 56 HE shells each with contact and non-contact detonators (50/50). Effect on the infantry and the trucks was very close to prior US calculations. However, effect on the armored vehicles far surpassed expected levels, reaching as high as 67% of vehicles disabled.

Although zero direct hits were achieved, fragments of the 155mm shells delivered serious damage to the armored vehicles - they penetrated armor, destroyed tracks, optical and targeting equipment and even caused fire in one of the APCs. This test has definitely confirmed the efficiency of indirect fire against armored vehicles.

main-qimg-24328f82b0fe3115263403093aa8bafc-lq

This command vehicle was successfully penetrated by HE shells fragments.

main-qimg-96b1c7e9357f5b54cdf84ab26c217213.webp

This APC has suffered damage of the gun and external equipment.

Next stage of tests lasted for seven months and was meant to research the effects of direct hits of 155mm shells on the armored vehicles. The outcome was that maximum effect was achieved by air detonation shells with non-contact detonators. The shrapnel successfully damaged gun barrels, external equipment, sights, engine radiators and chassis elements.

The third stage of testing was the most spectacular - a full stationary fortified position was created with trenches and all. A full motorised platoon was deployed on the fortified position (with mannequins instead of men, of course). APCs, tanks, weapons and mannequins were all properly positioned and entrenched.

To achieve 50% targets disabled the 24-gun 155mm artillery battery used 2600 HE shells. Even when properly dug in, 50% of APCs and tanks were rendered inoperable (mission kill). It was also noted that the testing did not take into the account such additional adverse effects as smoke, dust, scopes alignment displacement, physiological and psychological effect of HE blasts of people.

 

General outcome of the testing was formulated as follows:

  1. A direct hit from a 152/155mm HE shell from above is guaranteed to achieve a mission kill on any armored vehicle.
  2. A hit within 30m from the vehicle is potentially able to damage the vehicle sufficiently to achieve a mission kill.
  3. APCs are exceptionally vulnerable to indirect artillery fire and high irrecoverable losses are to be expected in case of incoming 152/155mm artillery fire both of vehicles and of carried personnel.


In an effort to be less condescending, please leave out phrases like “you do realize/ know/ understand (point your making), right”. We are piers here, unlike some other forums and blogs, and can glean the meaning of a coherent argument. 
 

But, in Beer’s defense (not that he needs it), destroyed and damaged are not the same thing. M777’s damaged but towed away and repaired later are most definitely not destroyed, though I do agree not everything salvaged from a battlefield can be repaired. As for the maintenance issue the Ukrainians have for their M777, that’s just normal for new equipment: I don’t know many military vehicle or weapon systems that don’t have reliability or maintenance problems on introduction, even if that system has been around for a while in someone else’s inventory. 
 

Also, no one brought up any doubts as to the effectiveness of the 6 inch artillery shell. There’s definitely a reason armies rarely use anything larger than 6 inch anymore, but it’s nice to have some data on that; thank you. 

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On 7/15/2022 at 9:49 PM, LoooSeR said:

A yes, only we have big guns and dicks in this war.

 

You invaded another country and you keep turning it into a pile of rubble. You are fully responsible for all what is happening. Don't even try to portay Russia as a victim. Noone was attacking Russia and noone is attacking it even now even though it fully deserves that and the only things which prevents that is nukes. 

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6 hours ago, Beer said:

 

You invaded another country and you keep turning it into a pile of rubble. You are fully responsible for all what is happening. Don't even try to portay Russia as a victim. Noone was attacking Russia and noone is attacking it even now even though it fully deserves that and the only things which prevents that is nukes. 


That’s a rather broad accusation to make: not everyone is a conscientious objector or lives in a country that won’t arrest them for protesting. From what I’ve seen, a lot of (if not most) Russians hate this war too, but can’t do anything about it. Correct me if I’m wrong on that, and feel free to snap at me for being far enough away to not have to worry much about Vlad, Ivan, and Boris showing up on my doorstep with some artillery, but I doubt that anyone other than Putin and his yes-men wanted this war, and everyone else is just stuck with it now. 

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9 hours ago, Beer said:

 

You invaded another country and you keep turning it into a pile of rubble. You are fully responsible for all what is happening. Don't even try to portay Russia as a victim. Noone was attacking Russia and noone is attacking it even now even though it fully deserves that and the only things which prevents that is nukes. 

I didn't invaded anything.

I'm not responsible for war in Ukraine as i'm a dude that works in a company that delivers food.

I don't portray Russia as a victim. You can go few pages back with my long post of how i see this conflict. And to be clear, I'm not on Ukraine side as well, they are no better in my view.

You want to attack - go and attack. Angry posts on a forum is not going to do anything at all. Buy a ticket to Kiev.

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2 hours ago, Lord_James said:


That’s a rather broad accusation to make: not everyone is a conscientious objector or lives in a country that won’t arrest them for protesting. From what I’ve seen, a lot of (if not most) Russians hate this war too, but can’t do anything about it. Correct me if I’m wrong on that, and feel free to snap at me for being far enough away to not have to worry much about Vlad, Ivan, and Boris showing up on my doorstep with some artillery, but I doubt that anyone other than Putin and his yes-men wanted this war, and everyone else is just stuck with it now. 

   Majority supports troops and like idea of Ukraine getting fucked. Propaganda from our state medias doesn't really played role in this as much as some people think. Ukrainians politicians and media people turned a lot of Russians from them by their mouths and cameras, or just by having an access to internet. Some people view this as undoing of what commies did with Russian people, drawing a border in places where it shouldn't be and such. 

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