Syrian conflict.

[Donward]

I can see the hyperlink. 

 

And if it can be definitively proven that this particular gas attack originated from the Syrian Air Force, then this was an appropriate attack by the United States.

 

In my opinion, there is probably a break in command and control in the Syrian military where local commanders took it upon themselves to launch this attack.

 

Either that, or there is some really lax control about what munitions are loaded onto strike aircraft and - oops - Private Haji accidentally pulled out a bomb filled with nerve gas and loaded it onto a Syrian airplane. Because with the Syrian Civil War, I can believe that level of sheer incompetence as well.

 

http://abcnews.go.com/International/us-releases-flight-path-plane-syria-chemical-attack/story?id=46651125

 

 

[LoooSeR]

13 minutes ago, Donward said:

I can see the hyperlink. 

 

And if it can be definitively proven that this particular gas attack originated from the Syrian Air Force, then this was an appropriate attack by the United States.

 

In my opinion, there is probably a break in command and control in the Syrian military where local commanders took it upon themselves to launch this attack.

 

Either that, or there is some really lax control about what munitions are loaded onto strike aircraft and - oops - Private Haji accidentally pulled out a bomb filled with nerve gas and loaded it onto a Syrian airplane. Because with the Syrian Civil War, I can believe that level of sheer incompetence as well.

 

 

 

   You understand that this is just a picture with dots that can't be used as "evidence" because dots were put according to unknown source/data/claims that we don't see/know?

   Syrians gave all their CW to UN several years ago, that base was in range of militants artillery several times during war (storing CWs there would have been really bad idea). Using CW against random village with 0 military reason after numerous times when US&Co were pushing for bombing operation against Syria because of CW usage does look really really stupid. 

 

   Using CW in Palmyra when it was under ISIS control would have make much more sense, and it would have been acceptable as no civs are left in the city, and SyMoD could claim that they use it to "save ancient ruins" so they don't have to use explsoive. Or use this CW during current Hama attack, or in Eastern Aleppo against several hills near Tadef and Al-Bab (they had huge undeground tunnel network), and a lot of other times. 

 

   This shit is happening over and over again, i am tired of this bullshit, with White fucking Helmets "saving" victims from Sarin while wearing slippers and dust masks, with video showing same "victim" dead and several minutes it is alive, with "doctor" interviewed appearing to be journalist kidnapper embeded with jihadists, how fucking many times we need to see this bogus bullshit to understand that it is bogus bullshit. 

[Donward]

8 minutes ago, LoooSeR said:

   You understand that this is just a picture with dots that can't be used as "evidence" because dots were put according to unknown source/data/claims that we don't see/know?

   Syrians gave all their CW to UN several years ago, that base was in range of militants artillery several times during war (storing CWs there would have been really bad idea). Using CW against random village with 0 military reason after numerous times when US&Co were pushing for bombing operation against Syria because of CW usage does look really really stupid. 

 

That's why I said if it can be proven. I haven't seen proof yet but this is just the first few hours of the story. But the story from our side of the pond is that we were striking the airbase from which this chemical/nerve agent attack originated and the Trump Administration is certainly behaving that way.

 

As for countries and their military doing something that is really, really stupid, countries and their military do things that are really, really stupid all the time and have throughout history. Lack of rationale motive is not a defense because human history is filled with characters who have acted without rationale motive.

 

I do not believe that Assad personally ordered this attack. Nor do I believe it is some weird wag the dog chess game by Putin. I'm willing to give the higher ups the benefit of the doubt - for the moment - that this was a breakdown in the chain of command. Hell, judging by the complete clusterfuck which is the Syrian Army, I wouldn't be surprised that a handful of chemical-armed bombs got mixed up with conventional munitions and - oops - got accidentally dropped.

 

None of us know at this moment. 

 

At any rate, it would behoove the Syrians and the Russians to make nice because they have more to lose here than Trump does.

 

 

[Collimatrix]

I am likewise dubious.  Why use chemical weapons on the Hama front after the SAA had started winning there?  Why not use chemical weapons, oh, say three months ago on the Palmyra front when things were looking really desperate?  Or drop some NBC gear to the besieged troops in Deir ez Zour and give ISIS a nice surprise when their neurotransmitters stop working?

 

I agree with Donward that the Syrian Civil War has generally been a shitshow of staggering incompetence, but I have a really hard time seeing why the Syrian military would say "fuck it, open that can 'cause we're gonna see if this stuff is as good as Saddam told us it was" now of all times.

 

On top of that, there is reason to think that this wasn't an organophosphate nerve agent (such as the fact that organophosphate nerve agents FUCKING KILL YOU IF YOU GET A DROP OF THEM ON BARE SKIN).  We know that the rebels have used simpler chemical agents in the past, like chlorine.  Phosphine isn't that hard to make.  The Pentagon has a hell of a lot of explaining to do before their version makes more sense than the Syrian government's.

[LoooSeR]

6 minutes ago, Donward said:

 

That's why I said if it can be proven. I haven't seen proof yet but this is just the first few hours of the story. But the story from our side of the pond is that we were striking the airbase from which this chemical/nerve agent attack originated and the Trump Administration is certainly behaving that way.

 

As for countries and their military doing something that is really, really stupid, countries and their military do things that are really, really stupid all the time and have throughout history. Lack of rationale motive is not a defense because human history is filled with characters who have acted without rationale motive.

 

I do not believe that Assad personally ordered this attack. Nor do I believe it is some weird wag the dog chess game by Putin. I'm willing to give the higher ups the benefit of the doubt - for the moment - that this was a breakdown in the chain of command. Hell, judging by the complete clusterfuck which is the Syrian Army, I wouldn't be surprised that a handful of chemical-armed bombs got mixed up with conventional munitions and - oops - got accidentally dropped.

 

None of us know at this moment. 

 

At any rate, it would behoove the Syrians and the Russians to make nice because they have more to lose here than Trump does.

 

 

   Yeah, if they had them in the first place. We didn't supplied them with those, Syrians have no means to build it (their only factory to build military-grade munitions is in Eastern Aleppo and was used as heli pad for last 2+ years), everything they had they gave up.

   And you can't mix up such things, SyAAF is not in such terrible situation to hire blind people who can't see difference between FAB and CW-filled bomb.

[LoooSeR]

12 minutes ago, Collimatrix said:

I am likewise dubious.  Why use chemical weapons on the Hama front after the SAA had started winning there?  Why not use chemical weapons, oh, say three months ago on the Palmyra front when things were looking really desperate?  Or drop some NBC gear to the besieged troops in Deir ez Zour and give ISIS a nice surprise when their neurotransmitters stop working?

 

I agree with Donward that the Syrian Civil War has generally been a shitshow of staggering incompetence, but I have a really hard time seeing why the Syrian military would say "fuck it, open that can 'cause we're gonna see if this stuff is as good as Saddam told us it was" now of all times.

 

On top of that, there is reason to think that this wasn't an organophosphate nerve agent (such as the fact that organophosphate nerve agents FUCKING KILL YOU IF YOU GET A DROP OF THEM ON BARE SKIN).  We know that the rebels have used simpler chemical agents in the past, like chlorine.  Phosphine isn't that hard to make.  The Pentagon has a hell of a lot of explaining to do before their version makes more sense than the Syrian government's.

   After 59 cruise missiles with 450kg warhead each no CW leaks on Shayrat AB happened, no NBC gear was used by AB personal before or after strike, during firefighting and just started repair works. Cruise missiles managed to hit almost every building, including kitchen, fuel depot and plane repair shops, BTW.

[Mighty_Zuk]

So with 44 targets hit, some of them hit twice or 3 times, the claims that 23 hits were recorded are now false.

 

 

Overall, yeah it seems really strange. But I don't think the US would go as far as doing a false flag attack and with such credibility. There's too much to lose here for the US. And I don't think they've changed their mind about Assad either. There's still no replacement for him and the west has realized that quite some time ago.

[Collimatrix]

I'm actually surprised that the personnel weren't wearing NBC gear.  Modern weapons systems are filled with all sorts of nasty shit (e.g. depleted uranium, hydrazine, phosgene), and it's a good idea to wear at least a ventilator when working around wreckage.

 

 

Edit:  To clarify, I'm talking about the warplanes themselves, not even loaded with weapons.  The fancy electronics and magical composites that comprise modern combat aircraft can turn into really toxic crap when they burn.

[Donward]

Again. You guys are behaving like the Syrian Army is competent and filled with well-trained military personnel and a coherent chain of command who aren't a bunch of incompetent fucktards.

 

Because, you know, there is a reason why the Syrian Army has lost 3/4s of their country and the only way the Assad regime is still in place is that it propped up by foreign powers like Hamas and Iran and Russia. That, and the fact that the rebels are even more fucking incompetent.

 

This is war we're talking about. A war in the Middle East. And SNAFU is till very much a thing in any military conflict.

 

 

[Priory_of_Sion]

5 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

So with 44 targets hit, some of them hit twice or 3 times, the claims that 23 hits were recorded are now false.

 

 

Overall, yeah it seems really strange. But I don't think the US would go as far as doing a false flag attack and with such credibility. There's too much to lose here for the US. And I don't think they've changed their mind about Assad either. There's still no replacement for him and the west has realized that quite some time ago.

If it was a "false flag" it would have been done by Tahrir al-Sham or one of the other related jihadist rebel groups using the gas to kill off some expendable children in order to garner international support that has wavered off. 

[LoooSeR]

21 minutes ago, Donward said:

Again. You guys are behaving like the Syrian Army is competent and filled with well-trained military personnel and a coherent chain of command who aren't a bunch of incompetent fucktards.

 

Because, you know, there is a reason why the Syrian Army has lost 3/4s of their country and the only way the Assad regime is still in place is that it propped up by foreign powers like Hamas and Iran and Russia. That, and the fact that the rebels are even more fucking incompetent.

 

This is war we're talking about. A war in the Middle East. And SNAFU is till very much a thing in any military conflict.

 

 

1) Syrian army and SyAAF are different organisations. SyAAF was not affected by unrests and war as much as SAA. Moreover, SAA is not that bad, majority of problem is with them being outnumbered and having many frontlines to cover (thats why NDF exists) to fight in the same time. You also forgot that SAA fight with Turkey and Saudi-supported jihadists in the North, Qatar-supported (now not so much) ISIS, and US trained FSA/NyFSA in the South with number of rebel/islamists/jihadists from all over the world. And they managed to hold main parts of country not that badly in 5 years. In fact in Damascus they managed to isolate islamists in Eastern Ghouta (in 2013 almost all Damascus suburbs were under "rebels").

 

2) Hamas? HAMAS? Really?

    Serious (relatively) Russian support came in the end of 2015, when most dangerous times of 2012 (major unrests) and 2013 (Eastern Ghouta CW attack and near-happened US bombing campaign a-la Libya) were long gone. If you under Hamas meant Hezbollah (lol), than Al-Muqowama actions were pretty limited (near Qalamoun region, Quseir and Zabadani), Iranian support was more with money and oil and not much with weapons. Currently Hezbollah/Al-Muqowama units are gone from Syria (only advisors), Iranian presence is also pretty small. There is more Tadjiks and Uzbeks dying in FSA/Hayat Takhrir Ash-Sham fight against Syrians than Iranians KIA in entire Syria.

 

 

[LoooSeR]

35 minutes ago, Collimatrix said:

I'm actually surprised that the personnel weren't wearing NBC gear.  Modern weapons systems are filled with all sorts of nasty shit (e.g. depleted uranium, hydrazine, phosgene), and it's a good idea to wear at least a ventilator when working around wreckage.

 

 

Edit:  To clarify, I'm talking about the warplanes themselves, not even loaded with weapons.  The fancy electronics and magical composites that comprise modern combat aircraft can turn into really toxic crap when they burn.

Well, thats why they didn't used them, i guess.

[Donward]

13 minutes ago, LoooSeR said:

1) Syrian army and SyAAF are different organisations. SyAAF was not affected by unrests and war as much as SAA. Moreover, SAA is not that bad, majority of problem is with them being outnumbered and having many frontlines to cover (thats why NDF exists) to fight in the same time. You also forgot that SAA fight with Turkey and Saudi-supported jihadists in the North, Qatar-supported (now not so much) ISIS, and US trained FSA/NyFSA in the South with number of rebel/islamists/jihadists from all over the world. And they managed to hold main parts of country pretty well in 5 years.

 

2) Hamas? HAMAS? Really?

    Serious (relatively) Russian support came in the end of 2015, when most dangerous times of 2012 (major unrests) and 2013 (Eastern Ghouta CW attack and near-happened US bombing campaign a-la Libya) were long gone. If you under Hamas meant Hezbollah (lol), than Al-Muqowama actions were pretty limited (near Qalamoun region, Quseir and Zabadani), Iranian support was more with money and oil and not much with weapons. Currently Hezbollah/Al-Muqowama units are gone from Syria (only advisors), Iranian presence is also pretty small. There is more Tadjiks and Uzbeks dying in FSA/Hayat Takhrir Ash-Sham fight against Syrians than Iranians KIA in entire Syria.

 

 

I meant Hezbollah. So that's a derp on my part.

 

But again, I'm giving the benefit of the doubt to Assad and his military by this being a SNAFU moment caused by incompetence.

 

Because - using Occam's Razor - the only logical conclusion of this chemical attack would be the Assad regime telling the world "Screw you guys, I do what I want!" And with the feckless foreign policy of the previous Hipster-in-Chief, NATO and the EU, Assad has been able to do what he wants despite those entities wanting him gone. 

 

As for the next step, again, it would behoove the Syrian government and Russia to swallow their pride, grovel to the God Emperor and deescalate the situation as quickly as possible. Because Trump is not like Obama. He will not back down or be bullied nor does he give a tinker's damn about the political or media ramifications of one of his actions once he has made up his mind to do something. This should be patently obvious based on his actions during the election. 

[Ramlaen]

OPSEC of the week award?

 

 

[Sturgeon]

As usual, Dilbertman can explain everything.

[Sturgeon]

OH MY GOD DILBERTMAN IS RIGHT

[Sturgeon]

So basically, what we've learned here is that in order to wriggle out from under the constant deluge of left-wing criticism, Trump had to basically become Hillary Clinton temporarily.

[Donward]

So basically Dilbertman came to the same conclusion I did.

[Sturgeon]

2 minutes ago, Donward said:

So basically Dilbertman came to the same conclusion I did.

 

Yes, basically. But he writes Dilbert, and he is a hypnotist. These facts may not be relevant, but I'll mention them every five seconds anyway.

[Bronezhilet]

13 hours ago, Ramlaen said:

http://abcnews.go.com/International/us-releases-flight-path-plane-syria-chemical-attack/story?id=46651125

 

So last time a flight path got published, nobody believed it because it. But now everybody's supposed to believe this one.

 

Anyway, this shows that airplanes were active above an active frontline. Wow. Shock. Horror.

Also, what in the flying gyppo is that flight path? Did the plane do an Immelmann above Homs or what?

[LoooSeR]

   Anna news from Shayrat. Ammunition storage was destroyed, Anna news was on site 2-3 hours after attack. No CW in airbase. 7 soldiers KIA , 13 injured during strikes. 

   All air-to-air missiles that were stored at base are destroyed. All destoryed planes are MiG-23s looks like. Base is active now.

Interviewed Syrians thinks that US just helps terrorists. Fuck trump.

 

Evgenniy Poddubniy. Runway is intact.

 

[Belesarius]

The only real issue I have with Dilbertmans post is this: " I didn’t realize that our military knows what every aircraft in Syria is doing at all times. That’s impressive, bordering on hard-to-believe. "

 

Uh, why?  US technical intelligence is by far and away the best in the world. Between various ground radar,  AWACS, fighter aircraft and drones, and SIGINT monitoring of enemy airbases, I'm sure the US is keeping a very close eye on things in Syria. USA/UK/Canada and a few others have gotten very good at correlation of sensor data and data sharing. I have zero disbelief in the thought that the US knows the flight path of every aircraft over Syria.

 

 

[Bronezhilet]

@LoooSeR, thoughts?

 

It looks like the front leg is between the front axles, but that might be a matter of perspective.

[LoooSeR]

5 minutes ago, Bronezhilet said:

@LoooSeR, thoughts?

 

It looks like the front leg is between the front axles, but that might be a matter of perspective.

Otvaga members analysed it, it is not Pantsir as chassis is very different.

http://otvaga2004.mybb.ru/viewtopic.php?id=1654&p=33

 

It is something like this:

[Collimatrix]

8 minutes ago, Belesarius said:

The only real issue I have with Dilbertmans post is this: " I didn’t realize that our military knows what every aircraft in Syria is doing at all times. That’s impressive, bordering on hard-to-believe. "

 

Uh, why?  US technical intelligence is by far and away the best in the world. Between various ground radar,  AWACS, fighter aircraft and drones, and SIGINT monitoring of enemy airbases, I'm sure the US is keeping a very close eye on things in Syria. USA/UK/Canada and a few others have gotten very good at correlation of sensor data and data sharing. I have zero disbelief in the thought that the US knows the flight path of every aircraft over Syria.

 

 

 

I'm slowly working on a post on GMTI radar technology, and on Russian Air Force technology in light of the Syrian intervention.

 

So far as I can tell, the information-gathering technology available to a modern military is fantastic.  In fact, it's too good.  Filtering the information, making sense of it, passing it up the command structure, and passing sensible orders back down in a timely fashion, that is what has been the problem.  A modern commander has too many telescopes to look through at once.

 

It gets even worse when you consider the human capacity for self-deception.  Accounts of the Bush-era DOD, with everyone basically being told from up high that there definitely were WMDs in Iraq and seeing all intelligence through that lens, or the 1979 Vela incident where investigators were told to consider every possible explanation except for the most likely one, spring to mind.